snowman19

The pattern looks awful, -PNA/RNA, full latitude trough dumped into the west, super strong SPV, +NAO, +AO, SE ridge. Ugly as it gets

Is it really true that Joe Bastardi is still forecasting a cold and snowy February for the east coast? I read that on twitter. It has to be a joke right? Satire?

A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini

You had a historic SSW event 2 years ago that produced a very strong, anomalous -AO and - NAO/Greenland Block which lead to that March pattern. Nothing even remotely close to that is in the wings right now

Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day

Everything has trended badly for us since the beginning of December. Really right after that minor snow event at the beginning of the month, things started to go to very badly and they never came back again. I’m seeing some posts on social media about pattern flips “after mid-February”...I’ll believe it when I see it, I very seriously doubt some miracle end of February or March winter comeback

Saturday night and Sunday look less impressive with each model run as well

Agree. Big time warmth next week, probably a couple days well into the 60’s for most of the area

People in glass houses....

The new Euro weeklies through March: “It’s over Johnny”. -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO, SE ridge.....

Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down

This winter has found inventive ways not to snow

We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you, the CMC and GFS are trash

I don’t think there is going to be some miracle March flip this time. We are going into a record positive NAM (++AO, ++NAO), it should peak somewhere around 2/10 - 2/12, the PNA is also going to really tank at the same time, ensuring the rest of February is almost certainly cooked. I just don’t think there is some last minute March pattern flip

No, I never take the CMC seriously, it’s almost as horrific as the GFS

And the Euro is still all rain for the NYC metro area. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? Lol This never was a NYC snowstorm and it still isn’t

The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z

You and I have the same views here. I had been thinking March went cold and possibly snowy...I’ve since changed my view for the same reasons. I just don’t think it does the magical March flip this time, I think we go out 2012 style this year

Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20

No surprise, but the Euro looks nothing at all like the GFS and has wave 3 as a lakes cutter. The GFS is in a world all onto its own, huge outlier

3 different waves yes, but absolutely nothing at all like what the GFS shows with over a foot of snow. Then the UKMET goes to a huge torch

The operation GFS is the only one showing this, the GFS cold bias at it again. ICON, CMC, UKMET were rain, Euro up next...

A cold rain for the NYC metro, enjoy!!

You’ve been saying the models look good in the long range since the beginning of December

Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow