snowman19

Yep, it’s short lived and the models once again overdue the -EPO/+PNA in the long range, PAC jet rages back. Agreed about the -PDO

Snow prospects look next to nil through 2/29. The overnight ensembles lend more credence to the first week of March cold shot being only transient. That progression would lead to a very quick mild up after a brief cold shot. It may get very mild by mid-month....

Will you when the very cold and snowy March fails?

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient.

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

This says it all right here, almost March and still record strong, this is the last nail in the coffin for any hopes of a late, last minute, winter comeback:

We can’t sustain a +PNA to save our lives, as soon as one pops up, the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down. The EPO and especially the NAO and AO don’t want to play ball either

Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now

The overnight model runs definitely weren’t as impressive with the -EPO as they were yesterday afternoon, they show a very flat ridge now. The pattern looks meh come early March. Might we get snow regardless? Possible, we got snow out of a meh pattern early last March but there is nothing at all on any guidance screaming east coast snowstorm, still +AO, +NAO, -PNA and a strong SPV

It’s more the first week of March for the bulk of the cold if the EPS is correct. Does it snow? Who knows, it’s not showing anything big at the moment. It’s PAC/EPO driven, no -NAO or -AO. PNA is negative

Larry: “The snow risks would be limited to the Front Range, northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.” “I do not accept the colder outlooks spewed out by the weekly model output. There is no sign of entrenched blocking in any of the critical positions (AK/YT, Nunavut AR or Greenland), the flow goes semizonal at times, and the repetition of the subtropical jet stream cannot be ignored. I follow the Canadian ensemble members in shaping another trough complex out of the West and High Plains by March 2. So a return to a cold West vs. mild or changeable East seems probable.”

Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat

Before the hype starts about the cold shot the long range model ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are showing for the 1st week of March, don’t be fooled. As depicted, and if it’s even correct, it’s transient and temporary, in and out, just like the 2 cold shots we’re seeing now. It is not a full scale pattern flip and there is no high latitude blocking setting up. You can already see a garbage, mild longwave pattern quickly building right back in behind it

Back to phases 5&6 lol you can’t make this up been stuck in the same loop since December. If that’s correct, we can kiss March goodbye

Not saying it’s right but the last CANSIPS run wanted to pop a big Aleutian ridge in March, which would fit with the Niña background you talk about. Also, check out the PDO, it’s gone strongly negative since January. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020020100&fh=1

The beginning of March is starting to look like more of the same on the models now, no semblance of any high latitude blocking, strong SPV continuing. Would not be surprised to see a continuation of what we have been seeing in February come the 1st week of next month...

This was the worst EPS run of the winter hard to believe it’s really mid-February just wall to wall ugliness through 3/1

This month is a total lost cause, EPS, GEFS and GEPS have none, zip zero for snow come 3/1, even the op GFS at 384 hours had nada

Oh you’re off suspension I see lol

Surprise surprise! The long range, phantom +PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-AO disappears once again. Who would have thought? I mean this hasn’t been happening since the beginning of December or anything....

Tick tok, tick tok.....

Plenty of time for what? You live in the NYC metro area lol. In 2 weeks, it’s March then you have until 3/15 to do something then nothing but a very anomalous event will get it done. We’ve been hearing “good signs” “pattern flip” “ blocking” “ridge In the west” “-AO/-NAO” “-EPO” “on the long range models” since the beginning of December

The GFS/GEFS has looked “great”, cold/snowy in the long range since the end of November....

If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90:

It looks like this same pattern goes right into early March, at least, it isn’t just going to magically flip on 3/1