snowman19

The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98.....

Yep, torch city by 3/15, trough dumped into the west, finally a mild March for a change....

There were moths out last night. Just crazy, I’ve never seen that this early. They normally don’t come back out until late March

If we actually go La Niña/-PDO this spring, summer, fall....hello SE ridge on roids and epic blowtorch. I really hope not

It’s farting into the wind looking for snow threats at this point; 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, this one is determined to make its mark in history.....

Don’t let it get you down, December is just a little over 10 months away....

Yea, the warmup looks to start on 3/3 and possibly get very mild thereafter. So much for that theory about Dennis causing a long lasting full scale pattern flip....

Don, the models are showing the strongest SPV ever on record for March. If correct, wow. And it seems the CFS is continuing its correction warmer for next month as we get within a week to March

Here is the new CPC outlook for 2/29 - 3/6:

How’s Thursday’s snowstorm looking?

One week away....Discuss

Did someone really just post the 348 hr op GFS? Lmfaooo

This is how many long range “snowstorms” now since late November that we’re going to track?

This says it all right here, the GFS fantasy “blizzard” is a cutter on the EPS. New EPS through 3/7:

Not the severely cold-biased GFS?! I can’t believe it!!!

Yep, full latitude trough dumps into the west by 3/6. All she wrote...

Hit the repeat button

Sure does, zippo for snow over the next 10 days, no cold air, horrible setup for Thursday, another rainstorm. The beat goes on....

The SPV is forecasted to continue to roar right into March, Kiss of Death.....

Liquid all the way up to Plattsburgh on the GFS, which has a severe cold/east bias at this range. The models are like a pendulum for next week.....swinging back and forth between rain and rain.....

Did you look at the soundings? The boundary layer is junk

Yep. The airmass sucks. Among other big issues. This is a rain event again

Yep, yet another all rain event coming up next week. Another horrible setup all around, zero blocking with a total junk airmass

Just an incredibly positive AO/NAO. You aren’t sustaining sustaining any cold with that garbage over the arctic and North Atlantic. And as Forky pointed out, SE Ridge city coming up. This “winter” is destined go down with the biggest clunkers of the last 25 years; 97-98, 01-02, 11-12.....

SE ridge city. Those SSTAs are blazing. Can you say positive feedback loop? I have a bad feeling this spring/summer/fall is going to torch big time