snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter
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Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011
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How did the January’s of those winters go? Just looking at this strong signal for October, it’s suggestive of ++EPO with deep cold over Alaska come January:
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Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems
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Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble
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The problem is none of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere:
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@bluewave@donsutherland1 None of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere:
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Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended +PNA runs last winter
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Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change
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Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow
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JB…..ROTFLMFAOO!!!! Last winter he was hyping that we would be in a Modoki El Niño right now lol
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Didn’t he predict that we were supposed to be in a Modoki El Niño right now last winter?
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A member in the NYC forum posted something about this a few years ago, forget who researched it, but anyway, they found that a warmer than normal Sept and Oct were nothing to worry about and many of them lead to a cold and snowy winter. It was when all 3 months (Sept, Oct, Nov) were warmer than normal that it became a huge problem. Nearly all of them lead to warmer than normal winter with below average snowfall in NYC, it was the kiss of death. Don’t know if the same holds true up there
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Good point about the extreme warmth off New Foundland possibly causing that weird NAO/AO blocking last winter. As far as how this all plays out this winter is anyone’s guess. Big differences for this coming winter as you pointed out, are the 2nd year, coupled Niña and strong -PDO/-PMM. And yea, that equatorial warmth in the Atlantic is staggering
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@bluewave@donsutherland1 Weathafella over at the New England forum pointed this out, the big -NAO/-AO Niña winters (95-96, 10-11) both had very pronounced tripoles in October. Warm around Greenland/Davis straight, big cold pool off New Foundland and warm again south of that. Textbook tripole. This year we have a dipole look with very warm SSTs off of New Foundland. Whether this means anything 2 months from now I don’t know but interesting none of the less. Here is his post:
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Yes, it will all come down to NAO/AO this winter IMO. If there is good blocking in those domains, then it will be very likely we end up with above normal snowfall, even with a hostile PAC, temps may not be colder than normal in that hostile PAC scenario but they don’t really have to be below normal to get snow once you get solidly into winter. My guess is a hostile PAC/ENSO this winter. We shall see
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Looks like another winter with a hostile Pacific that is going to be dependent on what the AO/NAO do…you have a strong -PDO/-PMM combo and all models are now making the La Niña even stronger as winter begins, this is the NMME, the Euro, CFS and others have also increased the strength:
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It seems every model is trending stronger with the Niña. This is probably overdone, but NMME the has region 3.4 dropping down to -1.5C in Dec and Jan:
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It’s been awhile since we’ve seen the -PMM/-PDO pattern, it broke in early 2013 and hasn’t been back since now
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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
snowman19 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Before my time, but I still really love 80’s music. The period from 1980-1990 had the best songs ever made IMO -
Probably related to the big -PDO/-PMM changes
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Please, celebrate me home,Give me a number,Please, celebrate me homePlay me one more song,That I'll always remember,And I can recall,Whenever I find myself too all alone,I can sing me home. Please celebrate me home
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We have also gone -PMM
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A strong -PDO for sure, it’s been at least 10 years since we’ve seen one. There aren’t too many good analogs for this upcoming winter….2nd year “Central Pacific”/central-based La Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, strong -PDO, -PMM
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Lmfaooo
