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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    “The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system. The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”
  2. snowman19
    ^ “I have a feeling after this upcoming WWB, we're going to see the atmosphere-ocean system in a very classic-looking El Niño state. Increased easterly anomalies across the Indian Ocean will probably also shift things to a more +IOD state. EPS weeklies have an extremely classic-looking El Niño standing wave setting up, with rising motion across the East/Central Pacific and sinking air across the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Also, the EPS weeklies show above-normal westerly shear across the Atlantic for the entire 6-week forecast. Even brief Kelvin waves/MJO passages don't really seem to break that. The windows for Atlantic tropical development this year may be few and far between.”
  3. snowman19
    Massive +AAM spike coming and an El Nino standing wave is developing. It’s absolutely coupling (ocean-atmosphere) and coupling strongly Per Paul Roundy we are about to pull ahead of 1997
  4. snowman19
    “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.”
  5. snowman19
    “Southern Oscillation Index is the most negative it has been with the current #ElNiño event. The subsurface warmth will continue to surface taking the SOI even more negative in time. This is the ocean/atmospheric coupling that is necessary. This is why it was important to recognize that El Niño impacts (not equal or the same everywhere) were going to occur much sooner than the "fall/winter narrative"
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    CPC also making comparisons to 1997 now:
  8. snowman19
    Here comes the next WWB round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak. And in other news, the ++PMM continues to rage
  9. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Here is an English translation of this disco on the super Nino/+IOD effects: “Look, as I indicated in my pinned tweet's prediction, the analogs are supporting it. The occurrence of very strong El Niño conditions simultaneously with a positive IOD tends to lead to a shift of the tropical convective core along the ITCZ toward the eastern-central Pacific; in this process, deep convection over the Maritime Continent is suppressed. I drew the ITCZ areas on the data. This structure weakens and fragments the Walker circulation, disrupts zonal (east-west) continuity, and particularly supports the formation of anomalous upper-level divergence over the eastern Pacific basin. The resulting overturning circulation anomalies strengthen convection in the equatorial Pacific while increasing subsidence-induced drying conditions in the Maritime Continent region around Indonesia and its surroundings. It will significantly affect the mid-latitudes through MJO/BSIO and teleconnections”
  10. snowman19
    ^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”
  11. snowman19
    This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.”
  12. snowman19
    IMO the Niña-like MJO (IO) forcing comes to an end with this El Niño once the +IOD gets established. The standing wave Nino/+IOD forcing combo is going to cause the eastern IO SSTs to upwell and cool off, causing subsidence in that region
  13. snowman19
    Yea, this one is developing as a “Costero”/coastal (east-based, EP) El Niño event. According to the South American Mets, we haven’t seen anything like this since 1997
  14. snowman19
    From a South American Met: ^ Translation: “This is the magnitude of how deep—and therefore how long-lasting—the warming of the ocean floor near our coasts is. We're talking about 100 meters or more in its most significant part and nearly 500 in its verifiable depth. All that warm anomaly is advancing toward the South American coastal edge. There's little the APS can do, as noted (APS=South Pacific Anticyclone) We haven't seen anything like this since 1997. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the most relevant one, why there's so much information about a major #ElNiño event on the horizon.”
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  17. snowman19
    +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
  18. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
  19. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  22. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  23. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  24. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  25. snowman19
    ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
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