snowman19

Unlike last year when we were in a +AAM regime, this year we are and have been in a strong -AAM, so definitely much more Niña like in that respect @so_whats_happening Australia’s BOM has changed its parameters for La Niña classification:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime

Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….

@Gawx This may well turn into the strongest -IOD event since 1917 and 1933….

I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years…..

Home come? Because 2nd year Niña’s very strongly favor -PNA

I can see -EPO. +PNA? Not really

IMO a ton of cooling has to happen in the northwest PAC over an extended period of time this fall. The cooling pattern has to be sustained over a long time. Let’s see what happens. SSTs that far above normal do feedback into the pattern and alter the global heat budget. If we were talking about anomalies of +2 or +3, then yes, I’d agree that it’s not feeding back, but this incredibly warm? I think the latent and sensible heat release absolutely does alter the global long wave pattern and is a very important factor like @donsutherland1 pointed out @bluewave

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic SSTA, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM. Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at how insanely warm the anomalies still are:

As a general rule with La Niña winters, if there’s below average snow in November and December, they end up being dud winters. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, November and December set the tone for the rest of winter with a La Niña

Bottom line, even though there wasn’t a ridiculous amount of arctic sea ice loss this spring/summer/early met fall, our starting point at the beginning of melt season was so low, we are still finishing at record low levels this year. God knows how many years it will take, when/if we get back to normal. Whether the arctic sea ice loss is related to SSTs or solar or both is anyone’s guess

@Bluewave Once again, tropical forcing staying in the IO and the Maritime Continent regions…..

2011-12 didn’t turn into an all out disaster until the end of November. A few days after Thanksgiving that massive Bering Sea vortex developed and just sat and spun there for months on end…right through April. It was one of the most persistent patterns I’ve ever seen. There was damn near close to consensus on east having another cold and snowy winter and all those forecasts busted horribly

Models have completely backed off on any Atlantic tropical threats for the next 2+ weeks. We are starting to approach the point where we are going to have to accept that this may end up being a below normal season (ACE/named storms) despite the La Niña

The fact that the EURO is seeing it now speaks volumes. It’s finally showing a La Niña, the last to the party as always with its extreme ENSO warm bias

There is very good support this time for a big shakeup in the pattern by October. Projected tropical forcing/MJO, -ENSO, -PDO, -IOD. I am becoming increasingly confident that October is very likely to be warmer to much warmer than normal….also potentially much drier than normal as well

This is a good point….Given the background climate change/AGW, have we entered the “new” -AMO cycle, which would explain the anemic Atlantic hurricane season? In the past, before CC really kicked in, cold North Atlantic SSTs (like we have now) was a staple of -AMO cycles. Just food for thought

There is growing evidence that we may see a big shakeup and complete pattern flip by October to much warmer than normal and possibly much drier than normal as well. @Stormchaserchuck1 warned of this weeks ago….-PDO/-ENSO October correlation. The -IOD is magnifying those effects

The UKMO has actually been doing very well. Curious to see what it shows when it updates

Lol That’s an Aleutian ridge not an Alaskan ridge