snowman19

Up to this point in time, I’m not seeing a ton of similarities with 2013

I really don’t like even looking at winter at this point in time, that said, at this extremely early stage, I think we can assume a few things going into fall at least…. -PDO, -ENSO (either cold-neutral or weak La Niña; possibly a Modoki, central-based event?, -IOD, -PMM, +AMO, -QBO, still active sun; high solar/geomag, but descending from the solar max peak of last winter, *possible* average to below average Atlantic hurricane season; along with either average to below average ACE, very likely below to well below average arctic sea ice again. Other than that, I wouldn’t venture into guessing the possible oscillation (PNA, EPO, WPO, AO, NAO) states until we are into fall

I would have to say I agree. It would probably take a classic (sulfate aerosol) tropical volcanic eruption of a Mount Tambora, VEI 7 scale, to have a profound effect on global temperatures at this point

We are getting multi-model consensus now on a -IOD developing this summer. If so, that will be the final nail in the coffin for any chance of a +ENSO forming…..

The current thinking is that this is going to be a central-based/Modoki -ENSO (be it cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

IMO we are at least a year away (maybe longer) from any substantial PDO change

The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

2013 was not very quiet and below average, it was exactly average. There were 14 named storms and 15 tropical depressions. 14 named storms is average

I know there’s a few forecasts out there calling for a hyperactive/high ACE Atlantic season (namely JB…surprise, surprise), but this should lend some big pause:

K

The summer of 1980 was an epic furnace, start to finish. Let’s hope not….

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

I’ve seen some musings that the very low arctic sea ice of the last decade may be playing some role in the wintertime +NAO/+AO states we’ve been seeing

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO @40/70 Benchmark “Potential Link between PDO and Solar Cycles: Some studies suggest a possible connection between the PDO and solar activity on decadal timescales. The 11-year solar cycle may modulate the PDO, influencing its effect on atmospheric circulation. Research suggests that the PDO phase can amplify or dampen the atmospheric response to solar variability. For example, a study found that the intensification of the polar vortex during solar maximum conditions is significantly stronger in the negative phase of the PDO.”

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

We’ll see what happens over the next few months, but if a -IOD actually does form as the models are projecting, given the already negative PMM and PDO states, my guess is that any trade wind relaxation is temporary

The never ending +AMO

@bluewave Getting back to your point of repeating global weather patterns, if the summer/fall plays out this way, besides the continuation of the +AMO, we may see another *possible* central Atlantic “Nino” develop along with a “Modoki” La Niña, which have both become much more common over the last 10+ years:

My confidence is increasing in at least a cold-neutral, possible weak La Niña forming this summer/fall. It looks like a rather substantial -IOD is taking shape. That along with the -PMM, and -PDO is a red flag

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge. As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains