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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing @bluewave
  3. snowman19
    Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997
  4. snowman19
    I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point
  5. snowman19
    I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias
  6. snowman19
    Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….
  7. snowman19
    IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive
  8. snowman19
    I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere
  9. snowman19
    Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:
  10. snowman19
    This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….
  11. snowman19
    I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious
  12. snowman19
    “Epic reversal of winds in the equatorial Pacific immediately east of the 180° line. This condition, which would extend until completing the second half of April, is and will continue producing a massive warm Kelvin Wave that will arrive at the South American coastal edge toward the end of autumn. It's the stuff of legends. It could compromise the winter season on the Peruvian coast. By warming it. #ElNINO”
  13. snowman19
    The big WWB has begun to show up on visible satellite
  14. snowman19
    Winter is over and has been over. It’s time to move on and enjoy life
  15. snowman19
    Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..
  16. snowman19
    He focuses on tropical weather. He followed me a year ago and I gave him a follow back
  17. snowman19
    No, it really doesn’t….
  18. snowman19
    Ultimate strength TBD, but there is no denying that a major El Niño event is coming
  19. snowman19
    In Eric’s defense, it’s not just him, it’s several other people, including some other big name mets. The point he’s making is that record breaking El Niño events tend to tip their hand very early in the season. The super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 all tipped their hand in March/April. It’s his opinion that this one is doing the same thing. Could he be mistaken? Of course. By late June/early July, we should know for sure which way this event is headed
  20. snowman19
    Once again, JB’s bombastic prediction of a huge return to deep winter, “delayed spring”, arctic cold and snowstorms in the east, from 3/15 through Easter Sunday looks to be a monumental, epic fail. I’m sure he will never acknowledge it and simply move on like it never even happened just like he does every year…..
  21. snowman19
    The Atlantic is very interesting now too….have we finally, at long last flipped to a -AMO cycle? The last time we were in a -AMO cycle was the tail end of the 1970’s through 1995….. @Stormchaserchuck1
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific:
  24. snowman19
  25. snowman19
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