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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
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  4. snowman19
    Modeling starting to show an ERW coupling with the MJO induced WWB at the end of this month as it moves across the PAC, enhancing it….
  5. snowman19
    If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C ^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher. This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”
  6. snowman19
    The RONI reached El Niño status on the daily yesterday, almost +0.6C. The traditional ONI was +1.0C
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  9. snowman19
    The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2: ^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”
  10. snowman19
    Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
  11. snowman19
    This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event
  12. snowman19
    Maybe, maybe not. We aren’t going to have a good idea where the forcing will actually set up during the winter for several more months. For now, so far, this event looks a lot more like 1997 than it does 2015
  13. snowman19
    Out of the last 4 “recent” super El Niño events (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), this one matches 1997 the closest, by far. Although this one is warmer in the subsurface than 1997 was. It looks nothing at all like 2015 at this time in either the subsurface or the surface. The DWKWs have just begun to surface at the coast of South America over the last couple of days. This one is certainly following a classic east-based/EP progression…..
  14. snowman19
    Agreed. Considering that is only the forecast through October and it will still be strengthening/warming at that point (the models have it peaking in November/December), with the added warming, it would almost certainly tie if not beat the all time RONI record since 1950, which was 1982-83, with 1997-98 being the 2nd. And it would also beat the record traditional ONI since 1950
  15. snowman19
    +IOD development. And it’s going to be off to the races….
  16. snowman19
    Yes. The next WWB late month is modeled as being amplified by an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ERW), which would trigger another DWKW and another big subsurface and surface warming push into the EPAC. If so, we would see a bunch of TC’s develop like the models are starting to advertise, causing more westerlies behind them, in their wake
  17. snowman19
    I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña
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  19. snowman19
    A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “
  20. snowman19
    Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s
  21. snowman19
    1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos
  22. snowman19
    The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak: And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:
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  24. snowman19
    Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August
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