snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it
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@donsutherland1 No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….
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It’s not out that far on Pivotal yet. The AIFS is showing 3-5 in the area, higher numbers NW of the city
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It’s starting to look like more of a Tuesday-Wednesday event than a Monday event
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Now the models are suddenly trying to turn Sunday into an “event”. Very light….1-2, 1-3 mainly N and W of the city. I’ve never seen the models flip flop and suddenly change and in some cases flat out bust horribly in the short term as much as they have been this winter in all my years of being a weather hobbyist
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I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff
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Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox), I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be a NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..
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Since March is 4 days away I figured I’d start a March thread. Discuss….
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So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?
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Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows
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Where did I say NYC isn’t getting a foot? The RGEM has a foot in the city. As far as what the NAM has been selling? Throw it in the trash, it’s going to start backing down and playing catch up. There’s a reason why the NAM/SREF are getting retired this year and it’s not because it’s good. The only thing it’s good for is warm nose events and that’s it. This is a classic NAM over amp and it’s going to bust horribly IMO
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The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run
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I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this
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Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do
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I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally
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The EPS mean is 7 inches for NYC more for Long Island
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I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh
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Even if this ends up as a 6-10 inch storm and the GFS is overdoing it, it will still end up scoring a coup. It was the only operational model to never completely lose it
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Welp, I will say this with confidence, if this turns into another GFS fail, that model will be totally done and regarded as junk for a very long time in the eyes of many people….including a lot of pro mets….
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The worst rug pull over the last 4 years was December, 2022. That month was primed to rival December, 2010. The only thing that ruined it was the severely negative PNA with a full latitude trough down to Baja (PAC/La Nina/-PDO issues again)…,everything else was absolutely textbook….huge west-based -NAO block, -AO, 50/50 low, -EPO, -WPO, true arctic air in place. Had the PNA even just been less negative, that month would have very likely been epic with at least one KU, if not more than one…..
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If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall
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^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol
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If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..
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The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames
