snowman19

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….

I’m not sure how much we can trust the MJO progs all the way into the start of February based on how utterly awful they were for December. But that aside, the thing I definitely doubt is 5 months of below normal cold in this new CC regime, which is most pronounced in winter. We have been lucky thus far to have seen November, December and the start of January see below normal cold. I just cannot see all 5 months in a row (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) averaging below normal cold. We haven’t seen a La Niña that averaged all 5 months in a row below normal in over 30 years (95-96) and that was well before CC really started

Just looking back on met fall and so far this winter, we have only seen one true coastal storm (back in the fall). That probably does not bode well for coastal storm prospects going forward. Normally, the fall storm tracks set the tone for winter. The winters that saw a bunch of coastal storms tipped their hand in the fall with a bunch of coastal storms. There is still no signs of a classic KU pattern taking shape on the long range ensembles. When you add to this the ongoing drought/dry pattern we’ve been in since the tail end of summer, 2024, I’m doubting a sudden flip to a bunch of coastals popping up. The long term trend has definitely been dryness with a very muted southern branch and a dominant and strong northern branch. Could I be wrong and some unexpected anomalous pattern suddenly develops? Sure

The EPS has been awful with the NAO. It just completely busted very badly on the huge west based -NAO block for early-mid January it kept showing for run after run for days. @SnowGoose69 just posted about that -NAO bias the EPS has

Every La Niña fades at this time of the year. Same story with El Niño. They peak in November/December then start fading. Every event does it. It’s a perfectly normal progression. And what strat warming? There is no strat warming predicted right now, in fact the SPV is strengthening. This idea being floated around twitter that we are going to magically light switch flip the atmosphere into Modoki El Niño forcing by February is preposterous IMO. The premise that we are just going to go from following a front-loaded La Niña winter evolution to a tee from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response. It defies physics and common sense IMO EDIT: @NEG NAO @MJO812 @bluewave:

Pro met or not, I completely disagree that February is going to be Modoki El Niño like. We are not going to light switch flip from a canonical La Niña pattern into a Modoki El Niño pattern in a matter of weeks. It defies physics and common sense IMO. If I’m wrong….oh well. And Ray is not suggesting that we go into a Modoki El Niño pattern for February, he’s basing February and March on a possible stratospheric disruption not ENSO EDIT: RONI: @Gawx @donsutherland1:

It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter

This ties in with the very persistent trend of dry/drought we’ve seen since the tail end of summer, 2024 you just posted about. The most persistent dry pattern we’ve seen in this region in over 24 years. Every time it’s looked like we are going to go into a wet pattern again, it fails

Mentioned this in response to @Bluewave post in the NYC forum, but we haven’t seen a dry pattern of this magnitude since 2001-2002. It began in late summer, 2024

We haven’t seen a dry pattern of this magnitude since 2001-2002

Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January……

The op EURO/EPS was absolutely awful with its big west-based -NAO block it kept insisting on for days, run after run for early-mid January, which is totally gone now. A really bad performance with that

As of now, I’m seriously doubting that we see -NAO blocking to go along with the anticipated -EPO/+TNH pattern later this month. +TNH very strongly favors a +NAO/+AO/SE ridge regime as both @40/70 Benchmark and Eric Webb mused. Also, @StormchaserChuck1 found a very strong tendency for a positive NAO when the EPO is negative the last 10 years….

Nice write up. I think the -EPO/+TNH just after mid-month into late January is real. I also think the cold is real. The risk again would be the +NAO/+AO/SE ridge tendency that comes along with a +TNH regime. I can see a gradient type pattern with overrunning events and SWFEs. The question, as always, will be where does the gradient set up? New England would obviously be the safest on the cold side in such a gradient pattern. Probably can get a better idea of how it’s going to play out the next couple of weeks

All about the clout. Guaranteed, 100%, come mid-late January they completely change their February forecast to very cold and very snowy from the Midwest/Lakes to the east coast no matter what. No doubt in my mind. They need the subscription money to keep coming in. They’re in too deep now. They’ve turned into a franchise that’s all about the like clicks, subscription money, views, follows and retweets like a few others are. It’s a shame…..

What a God awful performance by the op EURO and EPS on that big west-based -NAO block for early-mid January. Epic failure. Good lord did they fuck that model up with the “update” years back. It’s sad

Yep and he also followed up with this tweet…the +AO (aka “NAM”) and +NAO with SE ridge risk:

Therein lies the risk if we do in fact see a +TNH pattern take over just after mid-January….the AO (NAM). Here’s Eric’s new tweet on it, but +TNH favors the AO going positive along with the NAO going positive. And you already mentioned the SE ridge risk with it

t’s starting to look like a +TNH (-EPO) develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying. IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

To add to this, IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

It’s starting to look like a +TNH develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying….

While I’m certainly on board with January being another colder than normal month in the east, due to the front-loaded Niña we are in, which would fit the progression, that’s where I think it stops. At least that’s my thought right now. I’m not sure what BAMWX thinks about February and March? I know there’s some hype on twitter today about the new CFS being very cold in the east for the next 3 months; Jan, Feb and Mar….I just don’t see that happening. We haven’t seen a La Niña accomplish that (all 5 months in a row; Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) being below normal cold in over 30 years (1995-96). That was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO all winter long. As I said before, the only way I could possibly see that happening would be with a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup like 2018 had. I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks

You were right about the late November into January cold. No denying that. You were also right about the snowy periods in December, no denying that either. BTW, i never thought there was going to be a torch for one second, however, I did doubt the level of cold and the amount of snow NYC saw this month, true. That said, I can see the cold continuing through January, but I vehemently disagree that we are going to see this below normal cold pattern continue through February and March. 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row of below normal cold in this new climate especially? Color me very skeptical. A La Niña hasn’t done that in over 30 years…..since 1995-96 and that was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO. From the new post on my thoughts in the ENSO thread: “So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic La Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)”