snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The entire winter has been very dry going back to November
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All joking aside, this has been a very dry winter and drought conditions are worsening. We are going to have big issues this spring into the summer if we don’t start getting a lot of rain. As @bluewave pointed out, the end of January snowstorm didn’t have a lot of liquid equivalent, just very good ratios with the Siberian cold that was in place, it’s not going to melt down to much…..
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All joking aside, this has been a very dry winter and drought conditions are worsening. We are going to have big issues this spring into the summer if we don’t start getting a lot of rain. As @bluewave pointed out, the end of January snowstorm didn’t have a lot of liquid equivalent, just very good ratios with the Siberian cold that was in place, it’s not going to melt down to much…..
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I’m starting to think if one actually does happen it will be in March, but at that point, it will basically function as an early final warming
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We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs
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Correct. 2/21 is when winter really starts to wind down. “Prime” snow season for us is 12/20 - 2/20
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What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..
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With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024…..
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Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row
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My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now
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BAMWX does this every winter, from November through March. If you noticed, once it became obvious that the arctic cold was going to moderate this month, they immediately started to hype a cold and snowy March. They know damn well how to keep the weenie’s clicks and subscription money flooding in and they know they have one more month left (March) to hype cold and snow and laugh all the way to the bank…..
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The NWS needs to take a very long, hard look at the GFS after this winter. It has been by far and away the worst performing model, no other model has been as close to being as bad. Just an utter embarrassment all winter long and needs to be addressed
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Plus extremely marginal temps for the next event. What separates this one from all the others we’ve had so far is the lack of entrenched arctic air. Wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with an all rain event
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Don’t even bother. Not worth it. He’s going to say that the experts with Master’s and Ph.D. Degrees in Meteorology and Climatology over at the CPC are dead wrong and don’t know what they’re talking about…..
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Max: 21 Min: 2 Snow: 0.5
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@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying?
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The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….
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The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA
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If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday
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Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else
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100%. The +PNA period is over and done. RIP. This month is going to be decidedly, predominantly -PNA and probably strongly so at times. These fantasies on twitter right now that the models are all going to be wrong about it and there’s going to be a ridge over the west are going to go down in flames
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The operational GFS at 280 hours….what could possibly go wrong???
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The operational GFS at 280 hours….that’s worked out so well this winter…..
