snowman19

Best of luck and God speed! Prepare to be completely disappointed again like the last 5 months. By 0z tonight, it will be back to showing less than a half inch of snow @Heisy The UKMET looks good?? Huh?? It has nothing. You guys are chasing ghosts again. How many times are you willing to do this over the last 5 months and end up failing??

No other model is even remotely close to the op GFS and I’m willing to bet my paycheck that the 12z GEFS looks nothing like that either

This winter was dry as hell. Haven’t seen anything like this since 2001-02

Chasing ghosts

After 3/10, I think any consistent cold is done

The fat lady is standing at the mic and is about to sing on this winter. This coming weekend is a unanimous nothing burger on all the models now. Just more of the same completely uncooperative northern/southern branches; lack of phasing we’ve seen for the past 5 months, then the pattern flips to warm after 3/10…..

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

Looks like we are going to see our warmest temps since early November during that time frame

15F here. This is likely the last time we see mid-teens until December….

I agree. Whether this mid-month event gets classified as an actual major SSWE or an early FW, it’s going to be too little, too late. It looks extremely unlikely to propagate down and couple into the troposphere and even if it did, it will be astronomical spring by the time any effects would be felt with the lag. Of course JB is in hype/wishcasting mode, saying deep winter is coming back from 3/20-4/15 and the east is going to go into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow. That’s how you know that scenario definitely isn’t happening. He’s the ultimate kiss of death for winter weather in the east

@Donsutherland1 @Bluewave As you guys suspected, it appears that there is going to be no downwelling propagation into the troposphere with the upcoming mid-March SSWE. So the trend of a total lack of coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere will continue, this has been the case since November with every wave reflection and displacement event we’ve seen. Further, the overnight ensembles look awful for a snow event next weekend in the NYC metro area and they all still agree on a major mid-month warmup to well above average temps. Given that we are now into met spring, after the Sun/Mon cold snap, it may very well be RIP winter 2024-25

The mid-March warm spell is still there on the overnight ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS):

Cold-neutral ENSO in and of itself is not the problem. It’s when you have the other factors mixed in with it…..immediately following a La Niña event along with a -QBO and -PDO. He found a very strong tendency for a flat, equatorial Aleutian high and +EPO. He went into a very detailed explanation of why that is. Wish I still had that blog

HM did a huge, detailed write up the end of March, 2012 following the disaster 11-12 winter. He titled it “GLAAMourous”. I wish i still had it saved. He stated that the worst case scenario for an east coast winter is a cold-neutral ENSO/-QBO/-PDO immediately following a La Niña. He said that it very strongly supports a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge and +EPO……

Where exactly is the -NAO block he’s talking about??

I don’t see how this becomes anything but an interior, elevated event. I mean if there was arctic air in place and blocking, sure. But as far as some folks on twitter hyping that this is somehow magically going to become an I-95 DC-BAL-PHL-NYC snowstorm? Yea, skeptical hippo here

The only possible way this works out for anyone anywhere near the coast is the total thread-the-needle, perfect scenario I described this morning. This is still an elevated, far interior event IMO. If this was Dec-Jan-Feb…..even the end of November….different story. If we had arctic air in place and high latitude blocking (i.e. March, 2018), totally different story

The good thing is, the stratosphere and troposphere haven’t coupled once since November. We’ve seen how many stratospheric displacements and wave reflections that haven’t coupled now? So why should this one, if it even happens?

And not surprisingly, the EPS snow mean is anemic, even at 10:1 ratios. In order to do what the op EURO showed, for over a week out, since there is no cold, you would need a perfectly placed, bombing low with strong enough UVV’s and very heavy precip rates to dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get snow. Best of luck with that one

Oh you’re sure huh? Only a troll, like yourself would have said that

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it

Not surprisingly, the ensembles are backing way off on the possible snow event for next weekend. None of the teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, no 50/50 Low) at any level are in favor of a coastal snowstorm….and 850mb temps going into it are going to be way too warm for snow. This is very likely going to be a far interior and elevated snow event. All rain, even for southern New England IMO

Here’s my response to Bluewave’s post about this (SSWE/FW) in the NYC forum: 1 hour ago “You bring up a very good point. Even if this SSWE was to occur, there are zero guarantees that it would even couple. None of the stratospheric displacements and wave reflection events this winter (since November) ever coupled with the troposphere, so why would this one? And even if it did, there is a lag from when this is projected to occur, that would bring us into the final week of March or the start of April before the impacts would be felt. Too little, too late. We will be into astronomical spring at that point and all that would do is piss off 90% of the members here when there’s a coastal storm and it’s in the 40’s and raining”

You bring up a very good point. Even if this SSWE was to occur, there are zero guarantees that it would even couple. None of the stratospheric displacements and wave reflection events this winter (since November) ever coupled with the troposphere, so why would this one? And even if it did, there is a lag from when this is projected to occur, that would bring us into the final week of March or the start of April before the impacts would be felt. Too little, too late. We will be into astronomical spring at that point and all that would do is piss off 90% of the members here when there’s a coastal storm and it’s in the 40’s and raining

The EURO-AI already completely lost it