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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2: ^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”
  3. snowman19
    Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
  4. snowman19
    This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event
  5. snowman19
    Maybe, maybe not. We aren’t going to have a good idea where the forcing will actually set up during the winter for several more months. For now, so far, this event looks a lot more like 1997 than it does 2015
  6. snowman19
    Out of the last 4 “recent” super El Niño events (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), this one matches 1997 the closest, by far. Although this one is warmer in the subsurface than 1997 was. It looks nothing at all like 2015 at this time in either the subsurface or the surface. The DWKWs have just begun to surface at the coast of South America over the last couple of days. This one is certainly following a classic east-based/EP progression…..
  7. snowman19
    Agreed. Considering that is only the forecast through October and it will still be strengthening/warming at that point (the models have it peaking in November/December), with the added warming, it would almost certainly tie if not beat the all time RONI record since 1950, which was 1982-83, with 1997-98 being the 2nd. And it would also beat the record traditional ONI since 1950
  8. snowman19
    +IOD development. And it’s going to be off to the races….
  9. snowman19
    Yes. The next WWB late month is modeled as being amplified by an Equatorial Rossby Wave (ERW), which would trigger another DWKW and another big subsurface and surface warming push into the EPAC. If so, we would see a bunch of TC’s develop like the models are starting to advertise, causing more westerlies behind them, in their wake
  10. snowman19
    I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “
  13. snowman19
    Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s
  14. snowman19
    1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos
  15. snowman19
    The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak: And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    Not one person made a winter forecast on here not a single one. How dare we discuss a potential historic El Niño event in a dedicated ENSO thread. This shit is the reason why people like Isotherm, HM and a few others don’t post on here anymore. The weenies crying that someone is trying to take their cold and snow away. It’s fucking pathetic. Grow the fuck up
  20. snowman19
    Still very good cross-model agreement on a high amplitude MJO wave pushing through the PAC come later this month. That is going to constructively interfere with El Niño and initiate another big WWB and DWKW and TC’s. June’s ENSO model runs should be very interesting…..
  21. snowman19
    The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June
  22. snowman19
    A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.
  23. snowman19
    Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños
  24. snowman19
    The NMME joins the EURO, BOM, CFS
  25. snowman19
    @Bluewave @donsutherland1 This is going to cause another massive WWB/DWKW and TC’s. It’s also going to enhance the already strong ocean-atmosphere coupling/Bjerknes feedback. IMO this El Niño surpasses 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 both in RONI and traditional ONI….
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