snowman19

It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December

La Niña did not start fading in December lol @40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol

It looks like we go back to a northern branch dominated pattern next month like we had in December

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

ENSO has finally gone up to cold-neutral. Looks like one final burst of easterlies in region 3.4 before it’s totally dead for good. The SOI has finally come down from the severely positive values we saw, but -AAM continuing. The -PDO is still there but obviously well weakened from the ridiculous negative values we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Read your blog and I agree, next month looks -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO. The only thing saving this from going to an early spring is the projected -AO/-NAO and the *possible* SSWE. Whether or not this ends up just a big SPV stretch/wave reflection or it decides to pull a February, 2018 and do a major SSW with a total wind reversal and complete SPV split and coupling with the troposphere; “locking” the -AO/-NAO remains to be seen

He definitely gets an A+ for effort. If you don’t like what the models show…make your own….

February 1-20 is generally supportive of snow and sustaining snow. Once we get to the 2/21, that’s when it really starts to get not so easy

If February is in fact another colder than normal month, we will be at the door of a place we haven’t been in with a La Niña winter in over 30 years (1995-1996). In order to actually tie that winter with 5 months (November-March) in a row of below normal cold, March will also have to another below normal cold month, still way too early to determine March, but February will at least be off to a very good start…..

Question is was the GFS suite an overcorrection? It was the furthest off shore for days. The GFS is notorious for being an extreme south/east outlier, then it overcorrects for a few runs, then finally joins consensus after that. Horrific model

I posted my snow total this morning

Probably 14 or 15 inches here. Biggest snowstorm since the 21-22 winter

Your sister’s house

I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different?

The initial front end thump is definitely going to be impressive. That’s locked in, I think the only remaining question is, when does the changeover to sleet with the warm nose then dry slot happen? As a sweeping generality, I’d say 6-10 in the NYC metro area (including the immediate north and west suburbs) before the changeover/dry slot

The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight

It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in

I can’t get Pivotal to load right now. Is the 3K NAM similar?

That storm was one of the NAM’s shining moments (there aren’t very many). I remember everyone discounted it because, well it’s the NAM. But it nailed the midlevel warm nose perfectly and early. Even the other mesos didn’t pick up on it until it was almost happening and the globals completely missed it. These types of setups are the only reason why, IMO, the NWS shouldn’t totally retire the NAM. It’s literally the only thing it’s good at

There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.”

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

For anyone interested, Hurricane Hunter recon flights are going out again this afternoon and the data they collect will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight. The number/scope of weather balloon launches across the CONUS will also remain increased this afternoon and that data will also be in the new runs at 0z

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches