snowman19

Yea all IOD events, positive or negative always neutralize during winter but this is one is quite the milestone, strongest -IOD event since 2000….

“The next few days will see a polar vortex strengthen due to less solar radiation. However, to date it seems temporary with a zonal deceleration towards December. The eQBO maintains a weak polar vortex, but without support from the EPflux with Eddys momentum and heat fluxes, it will be difficult to get cold in the mid-latitudes. In this case, the MJO or tropical convention will play a key role in the dynamics of heat fluxes in the polar vortex if it propagates towards the Pacific with good amplitude in December. A W1 pattern over the Pacific seems likely with December. Obviously, if the MJO does not propagate over the Pacific Ocean, there will be no convergent heat fluxes that make the PV weak, and this will be a problem.”: “A negative QBO phase always lifts hopes for mid-latitude winter cold enthusiasts, owing to its influence on the stratospheric PV. But the QBO's links to surface weather are not simple. Perhaps surprisingly, during La Niña a -QBO is warmer than a +QBO in early winter in N Europe”:

These are the actual current anomalies, they have cooled but are still pretty warm

I actually have bothered to look smart guy. It warmed back up in early November back then. I love how you suddenly appear here with insults after contributing absolutely nothing to this thread since it began. One of those who only posts from November through the end of March then disappears

Wouldn’t you consider that one more of a subtropical storm rather than a purely extratropical one though? It definitely had subtropical characteristics

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century

My point, again, only focusing on SSTs is that back in 2013, the areas that are and have been cooling now (GOA, along the west coast and off Baja) were warming very quickly at this time back then

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

I don’t care what it sees in day to day noise. I’m talking about the overall stratospheric picture going into November here, there is an absence of upward wave fluxes causing warmings and there is zero evidence of any top-down warmings coming. Given those facts, if that’s correct, and it appears to be, the SPV is going to cool and strengthen

Day to day SPV forecast changes aside, I’m not seeing a mechanism (yet) that will force the SPV to stay weak next month Side note: @Bluewave The impressive +SOI run continues, and some MJO musings:

Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle

No, it can stay weak

All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now

The models have gone from showing a true coastal storm/nor’easter to an inland runner/cutter

It’s looking like this MJO wave completely dies in phase 6/7 then re-emerges back in the IO with another big drop in the AAM. SPV also looks to strengthen

@40/70 Benchmark The SOI is soaring again…almost +25. I like your new ENSO disco, I really think we see some Niña strengthening in both the subsurface and surface next month

The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge @donsutherland1

If the MJO fails to propagate past phase 6/7 and ends up re-emerging back in the IO, which some models are showing now, then another run of strong -AAM becomes a very distinct possibility once we get into November

Looks like the new CFS CHI200 forecast gets the MJO as far as phase 6/7 before it fades then re-emerges it right back into the IO and starts propagating it eastward again. @bluewave I’m starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another winter of MJO waves hitting a brick wall in phase 6/7….

I remember several years back when the record low arctic sea ice regime first started. The hype was out of control that the open waters were going to add evaporative moisture and cause all time record snowcover to build up in the arctic and result in a strongly negative AO. That theory ended up being a real massive bust and many pro mets bought into it hook, line and sinker and used it to predict a big winter that fall

For those who track the Siberian snowcover advance in October; “SAI index” (I don’t because I think it doesn’t have a good track record at all), but here is the new update from Judah Cohen….lots of bad, false info going around X right now, mostly thanks to Mark Margavage, who just the other day said it’s advancing at an all time record level

Perfectly normal “behavior” for every IOD cycle, positive or negative. They peak in Northern Hemisphere fall (usually October) then start to rise/fall and neutralize in winter. This is the strongest negative event in over 17 years

Agree with your take. Given the very strong -IOD, I would not write off some additional Niña strengthening come November with the constructive interference it provides

@Gawx Sunspot average for October is 125. While an obvious downtrend from last year’s solar max, solar and geomag activity remain high

This -IOD is the strongest on BOM’s weekly records, which began back in 2008…. @40/70 Benchmark