snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If there was a strong west-based -NAO block along with a strong -AO showing up, then I’d say yes, there’s definitely a better chance, but none of the ensembles are showing that
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Once you get to 3/15 and beyond, it’s very late/very rare for snowstorms south of New England. Can it happen? Yes. Has it happened? Yes. Can you totally rule it out? Obviously not. Would I bet on it? No. It takes an extremely anomalous, freak event at that point
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Light Sleet/snow in Sloatsburg. 30 degrees. Roads mostly wet. Salt trucks out
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Only 14 days away on an operational model! We can do this!!!!!
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Hopefully the snow melt and projected rain going forward tames brush fire season which starts soon. 3/15-5/15 is the annual burn ban in NY to help mitigate wildfire season….
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It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave
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Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo
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Ditto on 7pm sunsets coming back next Sunday. I think most would agree, it feels good to finally have turned the corner on sunlight today. November-February is the “darkest” 4 months of the year. March is the month with the biggest gain in daylight of the entire year…great to be back, looking forward to baseball season. My little cousin has the first regular season game of his high school varsity season the last Friday of March
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The final band is in Rockland now, doesn’t look like much at all behind it
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Sloatsburg: 31 degrees, light graupel with some snowflakes mixed in. Roads just wet
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Hopefully it holds for the next 10 months
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I’m honestly looking forward to Daylight Savings Time and 7pm sunsets again next Sunday
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Happy Meteorological Spring!
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Well, Contentweatherguy, who has been very bullish on the cold and snow train all winter long, has this to say about March:
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What’s the target date/dates for the arctic cold and east coast snowstorm pattern to start up again?
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During the day, March, light event, temps in the mid-30’s even up where I am…..white rain
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There are big questions right now as to whether this stratospheric warming event next month even downwells and couples with the troposphere
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On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it
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@donsutherland1 No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….
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It’s not out that far on Pivotal yet. The AIFS is showing 3-5 in the area, higher numbers NW of the city
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It’s starting to look like more of a Tuesday-Wednesday event than a Monday event
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Now the models are suddenly trying to turn Sunday into an “event”. Very light….1-2, 1-3 mainly N and W of the city. I’ve never seen the models flip flop and suddenly change and in some cases flat out bust horribly in the short term as much as they have been this winter in all my years of being a weather hobbyist
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I guess it could qualify as a very early final warming since it’s happening in March, but I would defer to @40/70 Benchmark or @so_whats_happening to give a better opinion on that. They are very good with the stratospheric stuff
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Assuming there actually is a -AO/-NAO flip around 3/20 (Equinox), I wouldn’t say there’s still plenty of time for NYC metro area snowstorms at that point. Have they happened 3/20 and beyond? Yes. Would I gamble that there’s going to be a NYC snowstorm pattern setting up 3/20 - early April? Not so much. After 3/15, south of New England, it’s very late for that. Obviously not impossible and has happened before with anomalous, freak snowstorms, but yea…..
