snowman19

Yea. Should be real interesting to see what happens once this massive DWKW surfaces in the eastern PAC next month

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

An extreme +PMM has developed: @40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

“A strong MJO pulse (part of what helped spawn #Sinlaku) is traversing the Pacific and will move towards Central America. As a result, trade winds will slow across the Central and East Pacific in the next two weeks. I expect we will see some fairly rapid warming of ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3 as a result, with a lot of sub-surface heat lurking from the last downwelling Kelvin Wave. On top of warming already ongoing, the East/Central Pacific may start to look very El-Niño-like shortly.”

Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)

This is starting to look like a lock for a “high-end” strong El Niño at the very minimum

@Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”

Yea. ENSO events normally take time

This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

@bluewave Holy ++PMM

Huge SOI crash continuing, strongly negative. -30’s for the last 3 days. 30 day average is negative and continuing to fall

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….

Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative

These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:

These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..