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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    IMO this is going to be a high-end strong El Niño at minimum with the chances of a super event growing very quickly
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    If these projections for the next few weeks are correct, we are going to see westerlies in the ENSO regions take over and “couple” (ocean-atmosphere) with Bjerknes feedback getting established
  4. snowman19
    This is huge and it’s going to cause another massive WWB and very likely start “Bjerknes feedback”:
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”
  7. snowman19
    “Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”
  8. snowman19
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  10. snowman19
    Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing @bluewave
  11. snowman19
    Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997
  12. snowman19
    I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point
  13. snowman19
    I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias
  14. snowman19
    Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….
  15. snowman19
    IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive
  16. snowman19
    I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere
  17. snowman19
    Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:
  18. snowman19
    This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….
  19. snowman19
    I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious
  20. snowman19
    “Epic reversal of winds in the equatorial Pacific immediately east of the 180° line. This condition, which would extend until completing the second half of April, is and will continue producing a massive warm Kelvin Wave that will arrive at the South American coastal edge toward the end of autumn. It's the stuff of legends. It could compromise the winter season on the Peruvian coast. By warming it. #ElNINO”
  21. snowman19
    The big WWB has begun to show up on visible satellite
  22. snowman19
    Winter is over and has been over. It’s time to move on and enjoy life
  23. snowman19
    Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..
  24. snowman19
    He focuses on tropical weather. He followed me a year ago and I gave him a follow back
  25. snowman19
    No, it really doesn’t….
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