snowman19

The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out:

HM just pointed it out but the real problem has been the raging ++WPO all winter long. It’s the reason the PAC jet has been an unrelenting firehose

You also notice the extreme -NAO bias it has had in the long range all winter? It keeps showing phantom -NAO’s that never advance forward in time. It’s done a terrible job on the Atlantic side. We haven’t been able to buy a -NAO block

We’ve seen this show before a bunch of times this winter from the EPS, it’s one run so far. Let’s see if it actually holds or not this time and advances forward. I’m not holding my breath

The FV3 sucks, horrible model. It’s honestly worse than the old GFS. And that map counts sleet and freezing rain as snow

The CanSIPS may not have been so crazy. The model runs last night are ugly right past mid February

The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February

Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened

We’ll see what happens post 2/15 but up to that point it does not look good

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

The ever elusive “MJO phase 8” and “Euro weeklies” for the last 2+ months. They’re both like Clark Kent and Superman, one on a model forecast and one in reality, they’re never seen together...

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

With the amount of uber hype circulating around social media about mid-December becoming epically cold and snowy, if it fails, I honestly believe there will be mental breakdowns and suicide attempts if it’s not at least -10F below normal with 40+ inches of snow between December 15th - January 1st....

Just watched an interview about global warming with The Weather Channel founder, John Coleman. Honestly, the guy made himself sound completely delusional. He said over and over “There is no global warming at all.” He completely denied any global warming whatsoever, no matter how small. I happen to believe that man has nothing at all to do with global warming. IMO it is a totally natural earth cycle, related to the oceans and the sun, more so the oceans. But to completely deny that there’s any warming at all is crazy as far as I’m concerned. Global warming is undeniable, however I think the reason is not mankind related.....

The onslaught of kids playing fake meteorologist on social media is really turning this science into a joke. People who don’t know any better, follow them thinking they are legit and actually believe their proclamations of historic blizzards and biblical cold coming from November to April. The clueless, fake predictions never come to fruition of course, then people start saying “it’s all hype”, “meteorologists get paid to be totally wrong, they know nothing”, “computer models suck”, “they are never right”. They are doing some serious damage to this field because 90% of the general public that sees their garbage don’t realize they aren’t really mets and their forecasts are fake wishcasts and hype meant to panic people. It becomes the boy who cried wolf in the public’s eyes when there really is a major snowstorm or severe cold coming and the real mets are trying to warn people. It’s really a shame and it’s becoming an epidemic.

Guess the weeklies weren’t cold and snowy based on twitter...the same people who were in love, praising its last run are hating on it now, “it’s wrong” as one comment said. Don’t even have to look to know the gist of what the latest run is showing lol

You guys crack me up lol

The twitter trolls and wackos are coming out of hibernation in full force again now that it’s November I see. Ed Vallee and a few others were getting attacked this morning for suggesting that November is going to be a warm month. It’s so predictable, you only see them tweet from November until April, then they disappear and crawl back under their rocks completely until the following November, like clockwork. The shame of it is, they ruin great twitter threads and discourage some very good mets from tweeting and giving their insight

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

What does the MAM say?

All I will say is the folks who are posting the false info that the stratospheric PV is warming, splitting, being disrupted, doing river dances, jumping jacks and backflips right now might not want to look at the new CanSIPS and CFS runs; they both are showing a wall to wall epic torch winter from start to finish, I’m talking December right through March; super +AO, +NAO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO. If correct, it will make the 2011-2012 winter look like an ice age.....

And here come the posts about how the stratospheric polar vortex is “splitting”, “warming”, “being disrupted”, “weakening” when it is doing absolutely nothing of the sort right now. Just saw this starting in another forum on this board. So tiring after the last few years of this banal exercise from November until April when people who don’t even have the slightest glimmer of a clue as to what the stratospheric PV is or what it does post the same false, clueless info over and over again for the next 5 months