snowman19

Jay Furtado is expecting the trough to stay centered out west, -PNA to continue right through the end of this month. This fits perfectly with MJO phases 7 & 8 along with a weak stratospheric polar vortex:

I’m not buying the 2/21-March cold and snowy pattern change forecasts being touted, at all. The AO is going raging positive next week, the NAO is going solidly positive and the PNA will still be strongly negative. The PAC jet still roaring

Be careful with any 10:1 ratio maps showing “snow”, most of them count sleet as snow and some even count freezing rain as snow. It looks like Tuesday may actually start as sleet and some freezing rain then quickly go over to all rain. The NAM is basically showing this. There is going to be a tremendous mid-level warm punch and very warm at that

You have a primary low cutting into the lakes, the mid-levels and upper-levels get absolutely torched on Tuesday. Very possible it starts as sleet then goes right to rain

When has the EPS and weeklies not shown -NAO blocks developing in the long range since November? Lol

EPS continues the RNA right through the last week of this month. It would appear the CanSIPS wasn’t so crazy after all with its prediction for February a couple of weeks ago

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

That’s not even a classic EPO ridge, see Bluewave’s post. But you go ahead and forecast a snowstorm for next week with no North Atlantic blocking, no -NAO and a -PNA. I wish you luck

What’s going to be classic is next week when this is another rain event for the metro area. It’s an awful setup, you know it and so do the others who are hyping this. Model consensus? Lol Like the model consensus 6 days out for “snowstorms” that all have fallen apart since late November? How many now? NYC has recorded one inch since 11/15/18 - today

That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you

We’ve been hearing about SOI crashes and cold, snowy patterns on the way for months, 3 months in a row to be exact. This is the boy who cried wolf now. The pattern looks real bad right through late February. FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month

Extremely unlikely. Total 180 degree different pattern, like not even close to last year’s pattern progression at this point in time.

Yep. “Not good” is an understatement. Kinda hard to force secondary coastal redevelopment with zero blocking in the Atlantic

The EPO isn’t going to help this one. AO going very strongly positive, strong positive NAO, no Atlantic blocking to be had, strongly negative PNA. This has cutter written all over it. All of next week is an absolutely horrible setup for a snowstorm in our area

If it amps at all, it’s cutting, period. Look at what’s happened all winter long

Forget even the -PNA, there is no -NAO block AGAIN, none. How many times are the same people going to fall for this and hype this winter?? Same song and dance for months now

It would hold more credibility if you hadn’t been calling for snowstorms for the past 3 months, literally since late November you’ve been saying the same thing. 11/15/18 - today, New York City has recorded just over an inch of snow, total

We’ve seen this movie before. Always a week+ away. The op Euro is the only one showing it

The other models cut too, we await the Euro

Look at the WPO, that’s what has been driving the raging PAC jet. It’s strong ++WPO and getting stronger throughout the period

There hasn’t been any semblance of Atlantic blocking since November nor does it look like any will be forming through mid month and beyond

Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler: