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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The Upton call this time is a good one. 1-3 inches for the entire metro, I’d even go 1-2 inches, I think 3 would be the limit and isolated. The new 3K NAM illustrates my thinking exactly. There’s going to be a mid-level warm nose. The models always underdue the warm nose. Here’s the 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021918&fh=41
  2. snowman19
    The EPS sucked all winter, the weeklies also sucked all winter. The GEFS flip flopped like a fish out of water in the long range all winter
  3. snowman19
    Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69
  4. snowman19
    The setup isn’t going to allow that to happen though. The Upton disco touched on just that. And last night was a total dumpster fire bust a rama. Why people thought it was going to snow with those soundings, even up by me is just mind boggling
  5. snowman19
    For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well
  6. snowman19
    Guys, FYI the new Euro is only showing 1-2 inches across the metro for Wednesday/Thursday. And that’s both 10:1 and Kuchera, same output
  7. snowman19
    Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  8. snowman19
    31 degrees here in Sloatsburg, intermittent very light snow/sleet showers, not even a dusting or coating. The radar looks like everything is about to end totally. New HRRR is less than a half inch of snow. Heading to bed, goodnight. Edit: All rain now 12:15
  9. snowman19
    If the new HRRR is right, we are getting less than an inch of snow, total. I’m talking maybe a half inch: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021800&fh=16
  10. snowman19
    I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36
  11. snowman19
    I guess Upton is buying the NAM and HRRR, they just dropped Rockland County to 1-3 inches
  12. snowman19
    The entire EPS run into the 1st week of March looks bad for snowstorms and it’s not even cold, just seasonable. Looks straight zonal and semi-zonal, still -PNA and it shows a severely positive NAO at the end of the run
  13. snowman19
    The remainder of February is a lost cause and IMO March is above normal for temps, below normal for snow. I see no reason to deviate from my thoughts and I already went over the reasons for my thinking. Nothing has changed IMO
  14. snowman19
    The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60
  15. snowman19
    Great post!
  16. snowman19
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021618&fh=63
  17. snowman19
    I tried telling you yesterday. Horrible setup yet again. I wasn’t saying it to troll. When we have a good setup I’ll say it. I don’t like tomorrow night either for the reasons you said about the Euro. I think it shifts north IMO
  18. snowman19
    They have it turning to rain now in Rockland (Upton)
  19. snowman19
    Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either
  20. snowman19
    The EPS has sucked this winter just like all the others. Don’t hold your breath. Wednesday’s setup looks horrible, yet again, as has this entire winter
  21. snowman19
    Besides the models sucking horribly in the long range this entire winter, I have reasons for believing that March is not going to be cold or snowy, wrote my reasons a couple of posts above this, just before. Until something proves to me otherwise, I’m going with below normal snowfall and above normal temps for March
  22. snowman19
    Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over
  23. snowman19
    The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March
  24. snowman19
    Yep, the models continue the strong -PNA right into the first few days of March
  25. snowman19
    You just dismissed it last week. One day you’re a weenie, the next day you’re cancelling winter. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
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