snowman19

Once you get to 3/15, it’s pretty much over south of New England minus a highly anomalous event, i.e. March, 2018, March,1993. You have sun angle, length of day and climo all working against you from that point on

For your area yes

Can’t argue with that lol I honestly thought February was going to act normal myself

The Canadian lmfaoooo, thanks for the laughs bro hahahahaha

The end of the Ukie, which is a bad model, looked like it was going to cut that low west of Chicago

They usually cut so far west they bring rain to Chicago

What a beautiful day! Spring has sprung!

Hope everyone gets out to enjoy this glorious week of weather coming up. Looks amazing, we finally hit the 60’s! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing! I’ll be out practicing the bag pipes and doing Irish square dances in the warm weather :-) Gotta get ready for St. Paddy’s next week!

It’s time for everyone south of New England to accept reality. Winter is over for them, time to move on, wishes, hopes, dreams, Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity aren’t bringing it back, the fat lady is singing.....

It was hilarious, “snow” at greater than 540 thicknesses during the day in mid-March in NYC. Lmfaoo What a joke the GFS is, worst, most wretched model ever, by far. Thank God it goes bye bye on St.Patrick’s Day

The GFS is the worst model there is, thank God it’s gone for good on St. Patrick’s Day. The 18z run was a hoot, showing “snow” in greater than 540 thicknesses during the day in mid-March. Lmfaooooo

Circus indeed the 0z GFS and the Para GFS both have absolutely nothing now

The EPS and op Euro want no part of it at all

It’s onto something IMO, every storm this winter has bumped north, every single one has had a north trend due to the models severely underestimating the SE Ridge

That’s actually not a good look. The EPO is raging positive, the PAC floodgates are going to be wide open and you’re going to have Pacific maritime air flooding Canada, all that -NAO would do is trap PAC garbage

Yep, it has 2 inches for Rockland and Bergen. Pretty much guaranteed Upton drops totals down

Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain

Thursday/Friday is more SWFE and a New England snow event IMO. I don’t like the setup, besides the MJO being out of phase, which is going to allow the SE Ridge to really pump, the PNA looks nowhere near as favorable as it was for last Sunday’s big storm. Also, the TPV orientation is less than ideal. I think we go to all rain in the metro after a start with snow. The snowy models are underestimating the SE Ridge, again

Yep, this is quickly becoming a very minor event, especially NW of NYC. None of the new model runs have more than 2-3 inches total for my area now. The NAM is on drugs

The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC

I think this one is done coming NW, the models are coming back from the overcorrect. You had the suppression earlier on in the week which was dead wrong, then the models corrected when they realized they underestimated the SE Ridge, we saw an overcorrection yesterday and this morning, now they have evened out, the RGEM just came east from its far west track earlier. I can easily see an eastern NYC and LI jackpot here. The 18z RGEM is actually matching up very well with the 12z EPS. I really don’t see this one becoming a NW suburb (Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, northern Westchester, Sussex, Sullivan) jackpot. NAM is too far west. Outlier

No Winter Storm Watch from Upton for Rockland, Orange, Northern Westchester or Passaic, or western Bergen County. They are calling for a very quick mover, 7am-2pm, 3-5 inches of snow total in my area (Rockland)

We aren’t going to see the same rates as the last storm and this thing is flying. 10-18 inches is a ludicrous forecast, also 13:1 or higher ratios is not happening

I would go 2-6 for the metro, the ridiculousness from some on twitter right now is out of control, this is not a 10-18 inch storm in the metro, no way, I’m sorry. You aren’t getting those kinds of snowfall rates in that very short period of time, we also aren’t seeing 13:1 ratios, that’s silly