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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC
  2. snowman19
    It’s going to be a monster hit, probably bigger than the GFS
  3. snowman19
    It didn’t look that impressive until the high res came out. Wow
  4. snowman19
    So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far
  5. snowman19
    GFS is going to show a massive hit. Look at 500mb
  6. snowman19
    That +PNA is the key. It’s the one feature to keep an eye on and why the Euro just did what it did. Should it fall apart, forget it
  7. snowman19
    Agree with you. The threat is cut, not suppressed IMO
  8. snowman19
    This is not a SWFE setup. This is like the argument that it’s “impossible” for a low to cut over deep snowcover. If a shortwave is amped enough in the wrong spot, it will cut
  9. snowman19
    If the PNA breaks down, it can absolutely cut
  10. snowman19
    I was joking sheesh
  11. snowman19
    Not really lol
  12. snowman19
    Yep, if the high and the +PNA spike and -NAO block are all real, then it’s a snowstorm.....a major one....if not, grab the umbrella even for the north and west suburbs in the metro area...
  13. snowman19
    That doesn’t look like a true vortex split, the model shows something, then backs off, shows something then backs off. I hope this doesn’t turn into yet another winter of chasing phantom “vortex splits” and SSWEs from now until March....
  14. snowman19
    ^This. We had pretty much 2 epic winters in a row (13-14, 14-15) with Pacific cooperation (-EPO) and zero AO and NAO cooperation. Why? Because everything is moving west to east on our side of the hemisphere. When you have garbage coming in from the PAC side, you are screwed even with a good AO/NAO under a latitude of about central New England, all it’s doing is trapping the garbage coming off the Pacific....
  15. snowman19
    The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....
  16. snowman19
    I didn’t say it was people in here. Please don’t get defensive, take a look at the twitter hype, hence why I said “people” and the -NAO depicted is a meh east-based one. I still seriously any sustained west-based Greenland blocked -NAO, I won’t believe it until it happens, not mirages on long range modeling
  17. snowman19
    Yep, people are hyping a -NAO/-AO, they do you no good when you have a +EPO pumping PAC puke into Canada, all the -NAO does is capture the puke under the block....useless
  18. snowman19
    Agree with you 100%. He keeps using the Euro to push this story line, which was horrible with this Niña. It was the last to the party and kept insisting on barely a weak event. The CFS, which did a very good job is actually showing a secondary peak in 3.4 come January. Over the last month or so, the eastern ENSO regions have actually been warming and the western regions have been cooling.
  19. snowman19
    Which is concerning IMO (that the eastern 1.2 and 3 ENSO regions are warming), it’s moving west and it’s becoming more of a Modoki, regions 3.4 and 4 centered event as we go into winter, which is what a few models suggested would happen
  20. snowman19
    Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold
  21. snowman19
    Good call by you and Bluewave last week of the eventual correction to much warmer for this weekend. Looks like 50’s and rain now
  22. snowman19
    The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong:
  23. snowman19
    Enjoy what? Not understanding your post
  24. snowman19
    Region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over 16 years
  25. snowman19
    I saw that this morning. It’s ugly, real ugly, it’s showing an 11-12 type winter scenario....hard to believe that we would have back to back winters this bad, they are usually separated by a bunch of years in between
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