snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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A trough down to Southern California is bad for us. Numbers don’t matter, I don’t care if the PNA index is -1 or -2, look at the actual synoptic setup, it’s not going to magically be a good pattern for us because the PNA is only -1. If a western trough is dumped down to Tijuana, it’s a bad pattern for us. There are also hints of a +NAO in February, if that’s the case and the NAO is +, along with the RNA, we got big problems of the SE ridge type…..
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None of the models have been stellar. At the end of the run, it parks a TPV over New England. If that’s the case, it’s cold and bone dry. After tonight, the Euro is dry as can be for the next 10+ days, could it be right? Who knows, but would that scenario really surprise anyone given how things have gone here since late November?
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The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter
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Yea, there’s kind of no way to spin a full-latitude trough dumped in the west into a good pattern for us….
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Pointed this out just before but the models are suggesting that we have +NAO to go along with the RNA this go around, unlike December. The CFS (which has surprisingly done very well so far since November) is suggesting a strong +NAO:
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I wouldn’t compare it to December also for the simple fact that I don’t think we see -NAO this time around. The long range models are suggesting +NAO in February
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Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west
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Did you even bother reading my post? Like seriously did you read it at all. I said “SOUTH of 84”, SOUTH, SOUTH, SOUTH, did you see it that time???
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The new RGEM looks similar….this is quickly looking like a total non event south of 84, and it’s really borderline even up there
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The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain
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The breakdown looks to start the last 6 days of the month or so. It probably doesn’t fall apart completely until the 1st week of February
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Those 10:1 snowmaps are so ridiculously overdone it’s not even funny. They’re counting sleet as snow. If you really think there’s going to be no sleet and they’re showing a major snowstorm for the metro area, you have absolutely no idea whatsoever how to read a sounding or what mid level low tracks mean, the midlevel temps are torched…
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This event has some serious problems, major problems actually. There is no -NAO block locking the CAD/confluence in, there is no big 50/50 low locking the CAD/confluence in, the surface high moves off shore, out into the Atlantic and we are into return flow before the precip even starts. The surface gets ugly. The midlevel lows track west of us and the midlevels absolutely torch because of that. If you look at the soundings you have sleet at best, not snow, and plain rain. The 10:1 ratio snowmaps are horrible, they are counting sleet as snow and are grossly inaccurate. This is an inland runner all the way and has been for a couple of days now
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Beware those 10:1 ratio maps on Pivotal weather, it’s counting sleet as snow. Look at the Euro mid-level low tracks, they are west of us. The midlevels are going to torch, a lot of that is going to be sleet and not snow
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No -NAO block to trap the high/confluence, it just slides off into the Atlantic and we are already into return flow by the time the precip gets here. It also doesn’t force secondary redevelopment off shore
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Yep. It’s the GFS being the horrific model it is and chasing convection off shore. That’s why it’s putting the low out there. There is nothing to stop this from cutting inland, there’s no block, the high/confluence move off shore before it gets here, you’re already into return flow before the precip starts and if you look at every other storm so far, they have all trended west/north as we get close to the event
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I don’t believe any “east trend” in the GEFS. Every storm this year so far has trended west and north as we get within a day or 2 of it, every one, there is no reason to believe it….we don’t have a block in place to force the track off shore
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I knew you had to comment. As soon as I posted I knew the alarms sounded in your basement. I think you have a crush. Lol I love how I live in your head rent free lol
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It’s like when people say “there’s deep snowpack, a low won’t travel over it, it’s going to be forced east, or south” If you get a shortwave to amp enough the low will plow right over 3 feet of snow, it doesn’t care about snow and ice pack at the surface….
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Jim is good, however, that is not a true -NAO block. That is a pop up thumb ridge, if it really even sets up that way
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I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did
