snowman19

The new run of the HRRR is very unimpressive: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122404&fh=13

Yea, that’s a good call for the higher elevations in NW Sussex County, NJ

NWS expecting less than an inch of snow for the metro area

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

Snow melting on contact and not accumulating

I said T-2 and that was pretty accurate for Rockland. There was a lot of white rain yesterday. The real snow fell in Orange County and areas with elevation just like I said. The city got zilch

It’s good for you guys, yes. Orange County north looks good for snow, especially central orange north, southern orange may mix. It has rain all the way up into Rockland and Passaic counties tomorrow night though

Agreed. Gotta be in Orange County for this one

The new 12z model runs would agree with you, this is strictly an Orange County north event. EPS has been showing this as a northern event for days

This looks like a 2-3 inch snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday morning even down in Rockland, Bergen, Westchester and Passaic. We almost certainly wake up to WWAs tomorrow morning

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

With the amount of uber hype circulating around social media about mid-December becoming epically cold and snowy, if it fails, I honestly believe there will be mental breakdowns and suicide attempts if it’s not at least -10F below normal with 40+ inches of snow between December 15th - January 1st....

Just watched an interview about global warming with The Weather Channel founder, John Coleman. Honestly, the guy made himself sound completely delusional. He said over and over “There is no global warming at all.” He completely denied any global warming whatsoever, no matter how small. I happen to believe that man has nothing at all to do with global warming. IMO it is a totally natural earth cycle, related to the oceans and the sun, more so the oceans. But to completely deny that there’s any warming at all is crazy as far as I’m concerned. Global warming is undeniable, however I think the reason is not mankind related.....

The onslaught of kids playing fake meteorologist on social media is really turning this science into a joke. People who don’t know any better, follow them thinking they are legit and actually believe their proclamations of historic blizzards and biblical cold coming from November to April. The clueless, fake predictions never come to fruition of course, then people start saying “it’s all hype”, “meteorologists get paid to be totally wrong, they know nothing”, “computer models suck”, “they are never right”. They are doing some serious damage to this field because 90% of the general public that sees their garbage don’t realize they aren’t really mets and their forecasts are fake wishcasts and hype meant to panic people. It becomes the boy who cried wolf in the public’s eyes when there really is a major snowstorm or severe cold coming and the real mets are trying to warn people. It’s really a shame and it’s becoming an epidemic.

Guess the weeklies weren’t cold and snowy based on twitter...the same people who were in love, praising its last run are hating on it now, “it’s wrong” as one comment said. Don’t even have to look to know the gist of what the latest run is showing lol

You guys crack me up lol

The twitter trolls and wackos are coming out of hibernation in full force again now that it’s November I see. Ed Vallee and a few others were getting attacked this morning for suggesting that November is going to be a warm month. It’s so predictable, you only see them tweet from November until April, then they disappear and crawl back under their rocks completely until the following November, like clockwork. The shame of it is, they ruin great twitter threads and discourage some very good mets from tweeting and giving their insight

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

What does the MAM say?

All I will say is the folks who are posting the false info that the stratospheric PV is warming, splitting, being disrupted, doing river dances, jumping jacks and backflips right now might not want to look at the new CanSIPS and CFS runs; they both are showing a wall to wall epic torch winter from start to finish, I’m talking December right through March; super +AO, +NAO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO. If correct, it will make the 2011-2012 winter look like an ice age.....

And here come the posts about how the stratospheric polar vortex is “splitting”, “warming”, “being disrupted”, “weakening” when it is doing absolutely nothing of the sort right now. Just saw this starting in another forum on this board. So tiring after the last few years of this banal exercise from November until April when people who don’t even have the slightest glimmer of a clue as to what the stratospheric PV is or what it does post the same false, clueless info over and over again for the next 5 months