snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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As far as the Niña, I mentioned over in the New England forum yesterday, it has become a basin-wide event. It is no longer “east-based”. All ENSO regions are solidly into a La Niña now. ENSO region 4 is the coldest it has been in over a decade....approaching -1.0C
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@frd Looks like griteater came up with that composite you had posted about last month for October’s relationship with the wintertime North Pacific High (poleward or flat) and +QBO/basin-wide La Niña:
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I was going to ask that. People keep calling this “east-based” but it’s really basin-wide. ENSO region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over a decade and the models project it to stay that way throughout the winter. It’s approaching -1.0C:
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The models are back to showing their phantom negative AO and negative NAO blocks in the long range, only to completely lose them as you move forward in time. They’ve been doing this for years now. BAMWX pointed it out yesterday
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I lost all respect for him when he was hyping a very cold and snowy winter for the east coast back in 15-16 with a raging super El Niño in place.....just showed how ignorant he is
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Couldn’t agree more. The “solar minimum” argument is just more snake oil
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I don’t even look at the Judah Cohen snake oil SAI index anymore, that proved itself to be nonsense. Looks like the models, once again are pulling their normal phantom AO/NAO blocking fantasies in the long range, right on schedule:
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Nice write up
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I mentioned it before, but I think all this record arctic sea ice melt is also contributing to the persistently +AO and +NAO winters we have been seeing. IMO it’s not a coincidence and it’s created a positive feedback loop
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The Greenland ice melt is extremely disturbing. Not as bad as 2012 but it’s still at record levels. If there were any more doubts about AGW having a major effect on our climate and global circulations, this is a very good example. Even HM is clueless as to which way the NAO is going this winter. Should be interesting to see what Isotherm says
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Agree here. The 73-74 winter is real interesting, you had a raging strong La Niña (strongest in history) and a very deeply negative PDO, yet it turned out to be a pretty decent winter for cold and snow. That really illustrates your point of how important both AO and NAO blocking are for the east coast during moderate and strong La Niña events....
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Very true. I guess you also have to consider that the 73-74 super La Niña occurred during a totally different, cooler climate era. I kind of doubt that even with a complete carbon copy of 73-74 this winter, you’d have the same results in the temperature and snowfall departments....
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As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter
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Back in July, never in a million years did I think this Niña event would ever approach strong, but it appears to be doing just that. The models continue to get stronger with it. It’s now fully coupled, ENSO region 4 has dropped like a rock. There are also shades of the 88-89 strong La Niña showing up, which HM and Ben Noll have pointed out:
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Everyone knew that....except for JB, Judah Cohen and Steve DiMartino lol You know, the usual quacks....
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I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988:
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The funny thing is, and they mentioned this in the New England forum, the models showing the -NAO December, also have a +AO....I would think it would be pretty rare to have a +AO/-NAO combo...usually they go + or - together, they usually aren’t out of phase with each other. I guess we’ll see
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Yea, I kinda figured strong Niñas probably didn’t differ much from moderate Niñas. I think moderate is pretty much a given now, I think there’s a possibility that it may go strong, but not a super event like the UKMET is showing with a trimonthly of < -2C
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Are you buying the models showing a strong/very strong La Niña peak?
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Yea, that would make it one of the strongest La Niñas in history. A < -2C trimonthly is crazy. I kind of doubt we are heading into a super La Niña.....
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The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too:
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I should have said as a sweeping generality, Niñas tend to be front loaded
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@40/70 Benchmark If this La Niña were to actually peak at strong come December, how much would it change the forecast than if it were only to peak at moderate in December? EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020
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March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold
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If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter
