snowman19

Agreed. We’re in a basin-wide strong La Niña. If we don’t see legit -AO and west-based -NAO blocking (east-based -NAO won’t help), we will be in deep trouble. The PAC side is most likely going to be garbage, -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO

People need to wait until the beginning of December to see what effects the upcoming -PNA/RNA pattern has on the SSTs off the western North American coast and the GOA. @Allsnow mentioned this yesterday, but there’s a possibility that all those warm anomalies get completely eroded away in the next several weeks

What’s most striking is how cold Nino region 4 has gotten, it’s been over a decade since it’s been this cold

I was thinking that too. Once the wavelengths start to shorten up again in March, those MJO phases don’t have the same mild effects on the pattern as they do in the dead of winter. If I’m a betting man, March will be cold, assuming everything progresses that way. What you don’t want to see in a La Niña winter is a mild December with below normal snowfall...they almost always have very poor outcomes

Yea, it looks like an extended run of RNA coming up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like come the beginning of December

Unusual for sure. If the CANSIPS is correct, you have to pray for help on the PAC side...question is will you get it with a coupled, strong La Niña in place? It shows absolutely no help at all from the AO and NAO from Dec-Mar. Positive AO and NAO as far as the eye can see

FWIW the new CANSIPS is projecting an extremely mild November

Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored

Yes, this may actually be the strongest Niña we’ve seen since ‘88-‘89 when all is said and done, if some of these forecasts are correct. I believe the UKMET has this thing peaking at -2.0C trimonthly. If that’s correct, it would be in the same category as ‘73-‘74

@donsutherland1 Looks like ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the threshold into “strong” territory. Now -1.6C. I guess the models that were showing this happening in November and December back in late August/early September weren’t so crazy after all. This La Niña isn’t playing around, it’s fully coupled with the atmosphere now.

Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see

This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign:

Agreed, it looks very ugly going into November. It was a concern HM, BAMWX and a few other mets had mentioned a couple of months ago...the massive amount of smoke from the wildfires that got ejected into the stratosphere, the +QBO, the record low arctic sea ice. The SPV looks to strengthen very substantially going into November as well...

Yea, I saw that, it was a good synopsis. I’m just having a problem believing that it’s going to be THAT bad of a winter. IMO, I don’t think it’s likely, but I may be wrong

Just took a look at it, what they are predicting is actually worse than last winter, if that’s even possible. Just wall to wall ugliness...

Not really. They predicted a solidly colder and snowier than normal winter for the east last year. They changed their forecast in mid-December when they saw it was a lost cause

There was a study published years ago that found that a positive QBO becomes a problem for high latitude blocking once it gets over +10 (don’t quote me but I believe that was the threshold given) during the winter months. The stronger the +QBO gets, the more it promotes strong westerlies/zonal flow

I’m looking now....I know it was said that both models are forecasting a strong La Niña, if I find it, I’ll give you the links right away

Read on Twitter earlier that Henry Margusity is supposedly hyping on his paid site that there’s a classic tripole in the Atlantic SSTs that will lead to a -NAO winter....if true, not sure what he’s looking at, but we have anything but a classic tripole right now: VS what we have:

DT lol Has he gotten a winter forecast right in the last 4 years? I lost all respect for him when I saw him wish cancer on someone who disagreed with him a few years back

If you look back at La Nina winters in the NYC metro area, they are also screwed without AO/NAO assist. All the good La Niña winters were predominantly negative AO/NAO, the bad ones were predominantly positive AO/NAO

IMO this winter is going to come down to the AO/NAO, if they are predominately positive this winter, everyone south of New England (really central New England) is screwed. Just -NAO without -AO isn’t going to help IMO, they both need to be predominantly negative together to get a good winter this time. This La Niña is basin-wide and is very likely peaking strong, it’s also very strongly coupled. I don’t think we are going to see a good PAC side, it’s probably going to be garbage. Griteater pointed this out, but the pressure anomalies in the North Pacific, GOA and Alaska so far this month and projected going into November are now suggesting a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to the +QBO Ninas that had poleward ones. If the AO/NAO cooperate, then it’s game on for cold and snow, see 73-74 super Niña, 10-11, 95-96

Agreed. However, if it’s being done as a way to not be wrong no matter what happens this winter, that’s a pathetic way to ‘forecast’ IMO. If it’s a ratter, they can say “See, I used 88-89 as one of my analogs!” Or if it’s a very cold and snowy winter they can say “See, I used 95-96 and 10-11 as my analogs!” Not saying that’s their intent, but if it is, that’s pretty sad

I don’t understand the people who are using complete ratters (i.e. 88-89, etc.) along with 95-96 and 10-11 as their analogs. It makes no sense

This La Niña is not playing around. I think strong is definitely in the cards now....