snowman19

I still think we see a turn at the end of January. I rushed things expecting a full fledged pattern change at mid-month but as of now I can still see the tide turn afterwards. It’s obvious after the last few days that this is going to be a slow transition

This is the same Steve D who said last year’s SSW in February was going to do nothing and vehemently declared winter over. Then March happened

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

Yea, the UKMET evolution just looks odd. It would be an inside runner and rain anyway which I’m sure no one wants

Worst case scenario for January at least. Then you will be depending on February and March for a big flip and by then you start to fight against the clock

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals

Thank you Rjay. Anyway, in response to dmillz post, the problem with 97-98 was the insanely positive EPO, which was caused as a result of the super El Niño we had in place back then. The NAM (AO/NAO) actually was good that winter, it was just that the Pacific ++EPO signal was so strong that it completely overwhelmed everything

The pattern is still going to be horrible then

Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least

If the jet configuration still looks like this come 1/15, it will be a very bad sign. I’m sticking with my thoughts for now, but not going to lie, after today’s guidance, I’m starting to wonder. That is a very troubling sight

I’m not anticipating it, but if we get to mid-January without the change in the Pacific that I think is coming, and a change is not at least imminent, on the doorstep at that point, then it will be time to get worried. Like I said, I don’t think that’s going to happen. You also don’t need the SSW for the change, the tropospheric forcing should do that on its own without any help from the stratosphere. There are serious doubts emerging today from the experts on the SSW and what actually happens with it anyway, it may not even downwell enough to affect the tropospheric pattern and a split, if it even happens now or a displacement may very well not be favorable for the east this time like it was back in March

Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure

Over 40 inches of snow in the metro between 1/15-3/1? You’re talking historic. Can a few real big storms and a couple of small events in between get you there? Sure. Would I predict such a pattern? Nope

^This. It’s very remote. The 12/30-1/3 time frame is still really bad for snow here. People need to be patient

Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well

If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us

The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks...

12/30, if it even happens that is, looks like a very minor event and yes with borderline temps. We are going to have to wait until mid-January before the pattern gets favorable for snow/cold in the metro area

Why would a SSW event at the end of December/early January allow a cold and snowy pattern to extend well into March, over 2 months later? I don’t understand

I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March