snowman19

A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed

This is an isolated inch event at best, maybe, for some areas, most won’t even see that. All the 12z model runs (minus the horrible ICON) were less than an inch total, some barely a dusting/coating

Some of the posts today about a pattern change mid-March have a point. If the GEFS is showing phase 7 and a weakening SPV come 3/16, it’s probably rushing it, just like we saw this month where the pattern change was rushed, so add a week or 2 and you’re looking at late March in reality. Once you get past 3/15, you are fighting sun angle, climo and length of day. Can you get a snowstorm in late March? Of course you can and have. But minus a completely anomalous, fluke event, major snowstorms in the metro area after 3/15 are very few and very far between. Other question if you’re looking for snow is will there even be arctic air around the CONUS to tap at that point?

Euro, total miss like the UKMET

And the GFS caves to the Euro…..

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any SSWE right through the beginning of March, also the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and we get into a mild pattern by the 20th, also looks like March is going to be mild as well as of now:

Don’t remember asking your for your vapid opinion. I was talking to Ray but thanks anyway for your useless drivel

Yep, once you get to 3/15, if you live south of New England, it’s game over

I don’t know if you’ve seen but there are people clinging to a possible SSWE the 1st week of March lol At that point, it’s time to pack it up and call it quits…..

The Ukie was a complete miss too as was the GFS and CMC. The 6z EPS was just as bad too. This “threat” is in trouble

It’s probably going to take a couple of cycles but it has begun to cave toward the EPS as Commodity Wx pointed out

The cave has begun…..

I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance:

The CFS weeklies are also identical to the GEPS and EPS, the tropical convective forcing change and the -AAM drop supports this. You also have a record breaking strong SPV which is coupling going into late month. This time, the change is almost certainly real and this isn’t a week or 2 change, as depicted it is going to have staying power going into the beginning of March

If something happens next week, that’s probably all she wrote for winter. The pattern turns into this right after and into March:

Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around

There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites

Sure. Solar spring starts 2/8, meteorological spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts 3/20

Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8

The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo

As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him?

And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..

If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO

Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk