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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    That right there (unrelenting Pacific jet) is one of the reasons why I do not believe we are headed for a ‘14-‘15 esque late January to early March comeback. The other reason is the PDO. Jan-Mar ‘15 had a severely positive PDO, over +2. We have nothing close to that this time around. I believe the extremely positive PDO is what drove a lot of that winter
  2. snowman19
    Unless the Euro does something later, the Para GFS is a big time outlier tonight. The UKMET just came in OTS
  3. snowman19
    Didn’t NOAA put a statement out yesterday about the GFS having major problems that they can’t fix due to the shutdown? I’m trying to find the actual article
  4. snowman19
    MJO re-emergence in phases 5&6 in late January would definitely not be good, to say the very least
  5. snowman19
    This synoptic setup is reminiscent of the early December storm honestly
  6. snowman19
    I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm
  7. snowman19
    I didn’t want to be the one to say it. But yea, if it keeps progressing like that on future runs it’s going to push it further and further south and east.
  8. snowman19
    I’m having doubts about the pattern going cold and snowy after 1/21 now, I had been optimistic until Friday night’s guidance. I will say this, if we get to 2/1 without a major pattern change, that isn’t transient, already in place, it will be a very, very bad sign
  9. snowman19
    I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time
  10. snowman19
    Cold and dry is certainly possible
  11. snowman19
    A change to colder is coming. Going to be post 1/21 but it’s coming. Question is how long it lasts and is it snowy or dry?
  12. snowman19
    East based -NAOs don’t help us
  13. snowman19
    We are in a real bad positive feedback loop in the tropical Pacific, the mild forcing is just going to keep repeating over and over. I think we’re in big trouble TBH. The new JMA just did a huge flip to a very mild pattern right through the end of this month
  14. snowman19
    From the research I’ve read, getting a wind reversal is one of the most important factors in a SSW, it has a profound impact on the NAM state
  15. snowman19
    It’s not budging an inch, and the pattern depicted at the end of its run is showing no signs of breaking down, by then we will be beyond mid January. I guess we’ll see
  16. snowman19
    The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month
  17. snowman19
    I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)
  18. snowman19
    I definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC
  19. snowman19
    If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind
  20. snowman19
    The Euro has us in transition 1/15-1/21, still not yet a cold pattern during that transition period. I like that timing, I think it really does take until about the 21st or so before we are in a solid below normal regime
  21. snowman19
    Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ
  22. snowman19
    The Euro weeklies (IF correct) have it above normal until January 15th, then start the pattern change transition January 15th and it’s complete by January 21st. The pattern finally goes below normal come January 21st or shortly thereafter and beyond, again if the ECMWF weeklies are indeed correct, I guess we’ll see
  23. snowman19
    Unless the low absolutely bombs and dynamically cools the column from aloft with strong UVVs (extremely unlikely) this is an all rain event, even up into New England. By the time it gets here, there is just no cold air anywhere around to pull from. Lost cause
  24. snowman19
    94-95 may not have been such a horrible analog after all
  25. snowman19
    I honestly was thinking about the same thing. Eventually the faucet is going to turn off. I know everyone wants -NAM and I’m pretty sure that’s what’s coming but it may equal suppressed storm tracks even with an active STJ once the pattern change occurs
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