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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Looks like a rather intense period of La Niña strengthening coming up. Easterlies are going to be ripping, regions 3.4 and 4 still very cold and dropping. This is going to limit how far east any MJO wave can make it, the cold waters and very strong easterlies are going to shear it apart
  2. snowman19
    People see a +PNA and start yelling “it’s going to be cold in the east!!” No, not when Canada is torched because the +EPO floodgates are open. December, 2011 was +PNA and a torch. We are also going to have +NAO and +AO
  3. snowman19
    Here is the new EPS through December 4th, no cold air or high latitude blocking to be found. If this is correct, December is in HUGE trouble:
  4. snowman19
    People actually still listen to that fraud lol
  5. snowman19
    So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate
  6. snowman19
    Lol the long range operational GFS hahaha
  7. snowman19
    @ORH_wxman Do you think that is what is causing this:
  8. snowman19
    From HM:
  9. snowman19
    From HM earlier:
  10. snowman19
    Good stuff. Here is a good tweet by HM from earlier:
  11. snowman19
    @frd Just to add to your post, evidence is certainly mounting for a +NAM this winter, here is the thread Griteater made today:
  12. snowman19
    @bluewave @Allsnow @donsutherland1 Good thread by Griteater, but a VERY bad sign:
  13. snowman19
    Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere
  14. snowman19
    Yea, the Euro weeklies are very ugly through the end of December and there’s no reason to doubt them at this point in time, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about January though
  15. snowman19
    It’s starting to look like at least early-mid December at the least may very well be a lost cause, possibly the whole month depending on how bad off we are to start it. A full scale pattern change isn’t just going to happen overnight. I’m starting to think this is going to end up being a January, one month winter for the metro as Isotherm and a couple of others have suggested. Very likely that February is a complete torch, March isn’t looking all that promising either
  16. snowman19
    An AO/NAO disconnect isn’t going to help us with a PAC that looks like what the models are depicting in the long range now. You need both a very deeply negative AO and west-based -NAO to compensate for that disaster
  17. snowman19
    Does anyone know what happened to Crankywxguy? He just called it quits for good on Twitter. It came out of nowhere. I hope it’s not something health related. He was definitely one of the better ones on social media, sad to see him go so suddenly
  18. snowman19
    Lol We’re still waiting for the one that was supposed to happen last winter
  19. snowman19
    How is that a good look? The EPO floodgates are wide open. All you are getting is Pacific maritime air, the NAO is positive to boot, even if it wasn’t and went negative with that PAC look, all it would do is bring down garbage Pacific air
  20. snowman19
    Very flat Aleutian ridge, +EPO, +NAO, not good signs going into early December
  21. snowman19
    MJO phases 3-6 are expected to be favored this winter, which makes sense given the SST setup in the tropical PAC. The thing that is disturbing, and Griteater mentioned this over a month ago, is the possibility of flat Aleutian ridging, instead of poleward ridging, which is being shown in the long range. He expects this flat Aleutian ridging to be dominant this winter given the anomalies he looked at in the North Pacific back during October, not what we want to see
  22. snowman19
    Agreed. This is what Griteater was afraid of, that we would have a flat Aleutian ridge instead of a poleward one, he expected this to happen
  23. snowman19
    That’s a big difference from pretty much all the other winter outlooks so far....they have February as a massive torch
  24. snowman19
    Here’s the winter outlook from Earthlight (John Homenuk) who used to be really active on these forums: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/
  25. snowman19
    48 degrees in the arctic in November. Scary
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