snowman19

No not really

That and the trough is positively tilted big time

The GEFS and GEPS have completely lost all of the high latitude blocking (-EPO, -NAO, -AO) in the long range, I strongly suspect the EPS will be next. This is shades of last winter when the EPS would insist on high latitude blocking mirages in the long range, run after run, only for them to completely disappear as you move forward in time

Eric Fisher actually just tweeted about this, as you can see, the 12z EPS says its own operational solution for this weekend is garbage:

The operational Euro has been God awful, just dreadful, even the GFS has been better. It’s almost not even worth looking at anymore, erratic as all hell

With no cold air? You know it has to be cold to snow right?

Agreed, good point about the MJO. If there’s really an amplified MJO wave going through phases 3-6, the depicted long range pattern doesn’t make any sense. We’ll have to wait and see. Paul Roundy and Isotherm have targeted January as being the wintry month for us

Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month

No sane people actually believed next weekend was going to be a snowstorm except for the delusional ones who follow JB and Henry Margusity

Paul Roundy’s thoughts of January turning cold/snowy in the east after an overall mild December basically mirrors Isotherm’s winter forecast

Why people waste good money on those 2 hacks is beyond me. They are the worst there is

I dunno, Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity are hyping an I-95, DC - BOS snowstorm for next weekend

Looks like the +PNA is going to be legit into mid-December. EPS wants no part at all of a -NAO or -AO though, it’s not enthused about any -EPO either

From Ben Noll:

The ship has sailed on 12/5 being a NYC snowstorm

A classic canonical La Niña response is bound to happen this winter. We have a strong Niña. Anytime there is a strong ENSO event, the pattern will eventually respond to the forcing, when there is a weak/moderate ENSO event, other atmospheric factors can “override” it all winter, as has been the case in the past, this event is too strong to not have a profound impact on the pattern

It’s uncanny how closely we have been following 1988 up to this point. I know several mets had mentioned it as an analog back in September. If this is indeed how it plays out, ‘88 also had the +PNA spike the first 2 weeks of December then progressed into what the EPS weeklies show the 2nd half of the month

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

Yes. This La Niña is going to be right up there with the strong Ninas of 73-74, 88-89, 98-99

I speak only to the ENSO forecast, which the models have done an absolutely outstanding job on. They have been insisting on a strong La Niña since August, when everyone and their mother were doubting it

@bluewave Here comes the big Niña strengthening period for the end of November and December that the models have been insisting on since early September, they have actually done a great job. A solidly strong La Niña is all but assured now for the 20-21 winter:

There is no cold air, look at the EPO, it’s positive as hell, there is a massive AK vortex in place, flooding PAC maritime air into Canada. The +PNA isn’t going to help with that look. Stop listening to JB, the first half of December looks cruddy. Maybe interior northern New England gets something and that’s even a stretch

Lol JB is hyped so it’s sure to happen. The 1st half of December looks horrible for snow except maybe for northern New England

By far the worst model out there, embarrassing. Utter garbage

I don’t believe any model showing a -NAO in the long-range, especially the GFS. How many times over the last several years have we seen these phantom -NAO’s pop up in the long range modeling, only to completely disappear as we move forward in time? People keep falling for it. Until proven otherwise, it’s a mirage