snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well
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The operational 6Z GFS at 180 hours….that’s guaranteed to verify Lmfaoo
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
snowman19 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yea, let’s predict a +PNA for the entire month of December in a Niña approaching moderate status. Brilliant, should work out great. This guy isn’t even a meteorologist -
@bluewave Here is the discussion on this with Griteater and Don Sutherland from last fall, 2020: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/
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One thing to keep in mind is an article HM wrote several years ago, A -QBO/Niña combo favors a flat Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar. On the other hand, A +QBO/Niña combo favors a poleward Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar
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The current healthy -ENSO and background state in the PAC strongly supports the MJO continuing to stay stagnant in phases 4-6. Every attempt by the models to advance it beyond phase 6 has failed since September 1st
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@bluewave We are in a very stagnant pattern for sure Don. And all that talk last month of a rapidly dying La Niña were wrong. We are about to see it go into moderate territory:
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How is it going to propagate east into phases 7, 8, 1, with the easterlies screaming from the Niña all the way to the dateline? They are going to shear the wave to shreds:
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2021112700&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It’s a nothing burger my man lol enjoy the flurries on Sunday lol
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It’s been popping up and that storm is going to cut. No -NAO block to stop it from cutting, no -AO, and the phantom +PNA is going to disappear and flatten out with the PAC jet crashing into it. The GFS, CMC, Euro, GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have it as a cutter and with good reason
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@bluewaveStill a firehose PAC jet in the long range as far as the eye can see. It shows no signs of letting up. It also looks like the +EPO has established a positive feedback loop due to the super cold GOA/severely -PDO and the extremely deep snowpack over all of Alaska. It’s just continuing to manufacture it’s own extreme cold there due to the very heavy snowpack and lack of sun, Alaska is setting all kinds of cold records
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It looks like the 6z Euro started a trend. The GFS, ICON, Ukie and CMC all want nothing to do with it now either
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The La Niña driven easterly trades are absolutely roaring up to the dateline. Any MJO wave that tries to propagate into phases 7, 8 is going to get ripped apart and sheared to shreds
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This is an extremely well coupled La Niña/-PDO/-PMM system in place right now:
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The 6z Euro is a nothing burger for Sunday/Sunday night. Weak, disjointed mess, barely any QPF
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The end of the run was going to torch, warm air was pushing in from the west and you know it. Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles could see where it was headed
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@bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear:
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As Bluewave pointed out, you know what you are looking at is not -EPO right? A ridge in the Aleutians is -WPO. A ridge over Alaska and the GOA would be -EPO
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Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button
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Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water
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The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years
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@bluewave Any model showing the MJO propagating east into phases 7 and 8 needs to be viewed with extreme skepticism due to destructive interference from La Niña. Any wave moving into those areas will likely be sheared apart. Here is the CPC’s new take on it:
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Yea, the Euro keeps pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range. It’s been pretty bad
