snowman19

After what we’ve been experiencing since late November till now, I’m doubting any sustained change to a cold and snow pattern. And if the ensembles are right about a +EPO forming by the 2nd week of February, that month will be in serious trouble too IMO

Right, same repeating pattern since late November. Any +PNA just gets blasted apart by the Pacific jet crashing into it. What is being shown on the long range ensembles (+EPO) going into February is very, very troubling to say the least

Looks good for northern New England yea

The problem is the roaring, unrelenting Pacific jet. This started in late November and hasn’t stopped since, over 2 months now. Everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form it gets blasted apart from the raging Pacific flow and flow goes right back to zonal/semizonal and we get screwed. Hope and pray the 0z ensembles are wrong about a big +EPO forming. If that happens it’s game over to start February

Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm

That looks nothing at all like Boxing Day

Biggest issue in my opinion is no -NAO block. If there was, this would be game on for a massive snowstorm

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

Since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow, a very bad sign. Usually the truly historic winters find ways to snow, they snow in bad patterns. On the flip side, the true duds find ways not to snow, given that it’s the end of January, I’d say we are definitely making a run for a dud right now

I had thought we were going to be into a sustained cold and snowy pattern change come 1/21. I was wrong, I busted. The 11-15 day period does not look promising right now, that is for sure and that period would take us into early February. I now have very serious doubts about February being any good for sustained cold or snow. I already think March is not a cold and snowy month like the last few have been. I’ve mentioned this before, but by the beginning of March, the +QBO will have descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and it’ll be strengthening. I think that works very strongly against any high latitude blocking, the pattern retrogrades, -PNA/RNA pattern takes over, zonal and semi zonal flow and it’s spring, unlike the last few March’s. The optimism I had for late January through the end of February is fading very quickly

Even the new 3k NAM is only 2 inches of snow total all the way up into Rockland, it matches the 12k for snow totals, same thing: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=38

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011912&fh=20 That’s hour 20, the changeover actually starts at 17 hours in Rockland and Sussex. Total snowfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=27

The new HRRR is really ugly, not like any of the other models are better, but it has a changeover to rain already in progress even up in Rockland and Sussex Counties by 18 hours after only 1-2 inches of snow

Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar

The Euro (Kuchera) is barely 4 inches total even up in Rockland County for the weekend

Unless other guidance shows this as a new trend, it’s hard to believe the length of this event really gets cut that short. It’s over, done, all she wrote that quickly? Definitely suspicious for now

The simulated radar was way more impressive earlier

Honestly, since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow

So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north

This could be quite the freezing rain and sleet event. Every model has the midlevels torching. Usually the midlevel warm punch always verifies warmer as you close in on the storm. The low level jet is going to be screaming in from the south

He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

It would appear the FV3 is about to spit out a completely different solution than the “old” GFS. It may very well be Thursday before a general model consensus like some have been saying