snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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@donsutherland1The ensemble’s show a very strong -PNA regime though the entire next 35 day period. Near unanimous support:
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If the new NMME for JFM is correct, your worry will be valid. It has a super ++ EPO and a PAC chinook across the CONUS:
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Even if the -EPO is real, it’s -EPO with a severely negative PNA, +AO, +NAO, a SE ridge and a strong SPV. The cold would dump into the west first, then struggle to make it to our latitude on the east coast
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Big questions ahead for the end of the month and January:
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Assuming the -EPO develops around the 20th and doesn’t move forward in time, there will be a lag, so with that lag factored in, the effects probably wouldn’t be felt until the beginning of January. Also, like you said, people need to keep in mind that even though the EPO changes, we are still going to have a super negative PNA, +AO, +NAO, a strong SPV and a beefed up SE ridge to deal with. We aren’t going to plunge into an arctic tundra
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It’s done, the Euro won, every model (GFS, NAM, RGEM, CMC, HRDPS, UKMET, ICON) has nothing now….
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There’s certainly a possibility a -NAO pops, but like Eric said, if it does, it would be post Christmas and more likely the beginning of January should such a response come to fruition, then the question becomes how long does it last assuming no SSW occurs and the MJO goes back into its classic maritime continent La Niña phases (4, 5, 6) which is climo for mid-late January?
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It also has a +NAO. So even though it shows that “west-based” -EPO at the end of the month, it still has a very negative PNA/RNA, +AO and a SE ridge on roids come the last week of the month. You also have a very strong SPV. Whether this changes come the beginning of January remains to be seen
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The new Euro still wants nothing at all to do with Wednesday. It’s less than half an inch of snow area wide, even using 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021120612&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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And the SPV has become strong as can be:
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We are definitely going to be in the running for a top warmest December in a few weeks from now:
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
snowman19 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model -
The GFS is laughably horrible. It’s been out in left field since Friday. It’s just finally starting to get a clue now. Full cave to the Euro
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The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow
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Agreed. The zonal flow is way, way too fast for this to really amp or phase. I think the GFS is out to lunch
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The new Euro just like the Ukie wants nothing at all to do with Tues/Wed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing
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I agree, the GFS is trending to the Ukie and Euro and now the CMC, I expect the ICON will follow later. You were right about the fast flow shearing it.
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View any model showing the MJO propagating into phases 7, 8, 1 with extreme skepticism
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Agree. I don’t see any evidence that the pattern is just going to do a complete 180 by the beginning of January. So far we have seen failed attempt after failed attempt since early September at the models propagating the MJO to phases 7, 8, 1, which never happened due to the wall of easterlies from the La Niña and we about to see an extreme -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, +AO pattern coming up….this is on the heels of the most positive EPO fall in history and an extreme -PDO/-PMM background state
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There is no -NAO block which you ABSOLUTELY need to get a snowstorm here in the metro next week. The SE ridge is going to flex big time along with all the other problems I pointed to earlier. Make no mistake, this will end up north, there’s nothing to stop it, there’s no block. This one is for interior central and northern NE. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..
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If you read Eric Webb’s tweet chain I posted before, he explains why the models are incorrect for propagating the MJO wave into phase 7 with the current Niña state. They also propagate it too fast as well as too far. It has been stuck in phases 4-6 since the beginning of September
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If we had a -NAO block, this would have been a metro area snowstorm and probably a decent one at that
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Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this
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We may be stuck in a warm pattern for most of December. The MJO wave is going to run into a wall of easterlies from the Niña and get ripped apart before it can propogate into phase 7. Classic model bias of exaggerating phase 7, which is why they kept going back and forth in the long range
