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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It looks like the rest of this month and the first 14 days of February (at the very least) are toast. I should have stuck with my initial guess of 2/15 or beyond for a true change. Now, I’m honestly thinking more like late February, if it ever even happens in February. You don’t just snap out of a vortex over Alaska look overnight. The one thing I’m sure about is come early to mid March a massive -NAO block will develop and last right through the end of April. It never fails.....
  2. snowman19
    The UKMET wants nothing to do with snow in the metro area for the weekend either, just like the ICON, GFS, CMC
  3. snowman19
    Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm
  4. snowman19
    Bad fail for the GFS and CMC. The pattern looks exceedingly ugly going into early February, after next weekend looks to start the real ugliness, (post 1/26) not that this week looks good either....
  5. snowman19
    It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around
  6. snowman19
    2 inches up by me. Finished up the way it always was for days now.....a 1-3 inch event
  7. snowman19
    I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though
  8. snowman19
    Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48
  9. snowman19
    An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex
  10. snowman19
    Agree with you here. This was always a 1-3 inch event, at best, as you can see the models are correcting warmer with less snow as we get closer, theme of this winter so far, expect this correction to continue through tomorrow. Would not surprise me one bit if NYC sees less than an inch and the N & W suburbs see 1-2 inches at best before a changeover. This setup was very, very marginal from day one
  11. snowman19
    Nothing has changed whatsoever, it’s still 1-3 inches at best, 1” or less near the city: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011518&fh=84
  12. snowman19
    Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now
  13. snowman19
    This is a quick snow/sleet to start then over to all rain rather quickly. IMO most areas in the metro see less than an inch even N & W
  14. snowman19
    This is clearly headed to a mostly all rain event even N and W of the city, if these trends continue it will be less than an inch of snow to all rain Saturday even N and W
  15. snowman19
    This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that
  16. snowman19
    It’s cold but it’s not unmodified arctic, the boundary layer is going to warm rather quickly when the winds flip. This is starting to look like a 1-3 event for the metro area
  17. snowman19
    This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018
  18. snowman19
    Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again
  19. snowman19
    It turns to rain on the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011312&fh=138
  20. snowman19
    The area NWS Albany covers is not part of this subforum
  21. snowman19
    Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic high pressure builds toward the region. Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain. For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive. Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the probabilities at chance.
  22. snowman19
    Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....
  23. snowman19
    Next weekend’s setup sucks south of New England still, don’t worry, the NYC metro area will get their chance post 1/20, be patient
  24. snowman19
    The cold biased op GFS at day 7, what could possibly go wrong??.....
  25. snowman19
    There wouldn’t be a worse scenario, if we go back into 4/5 in early-mid February, it’ll be time to start thinking about next winter
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