snowman19

Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over

The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March

Yep, the models continue the strong -PNA right into the first few days of March

You just dismissed it last week. One day you’re a weenie, the next day you’re cancelling winter. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

All light freezing rain now, sleets done, precip just lightened quite a bit here after the changeover

I’m just going to freezing rain now, still a bit of sleet mixed in, I’m just to the north of you in Rockland. 26 degrees

Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well

The new NAM (3K, 12K) and the RGEM are in excellent agreement for tomorrow. We have consensus: 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=45 12k NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=42 RGEM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021118&fh=41

Jay Furtado is expecting the trough to stay centered out west, -PNA to continue right through the end of this month. This fits perfectly with MJO phases 7 & 8 along with a weak stratospheric polar vortex:

I’m not buying the 2/21-March cold and snowy pattern change forecasts being touted, at all. The AO is going raging positive next week, the NAO is going solidly positive and the PNA will still be strongly negative. The PAC jet still roaring

The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=T700&runtime=2019021018&fh=54

John’s right. The mid-levels are going to be roasting. And yea the models usually underdo the WAA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021012&fh=81

The NAM is another total non event for snow, again. Has an inch total for the entire area. It’s been very consistent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021006&fh=78

The UKMET has consistently been too snowy and too cold this winter. It really botched the 1/20 event

The NAM is insistent, run after run that there is minimal snow Tuesday, it shows an inch for most of the region, then a sleet fest before rain. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019020918&fh=84

Be careful with any 10:1 ratio maps showing “snow”, most of them count sleet as snow and some even count freezing rain as snow. It looks like Tuesday may actually start as sleet and some freezing rain then quickly go over to all rain. The NAM is basically showing this. There is going to be a tremendous mid-level warm punch and very warm at that

You have a primary low cutting into the lakes, the mid-levels and upper-levels get absolutely torched on Tuesday. Very possible it starts as sleet then goes right to rain

When has the EPS and weeklies not shown -NAO blocks developing in the long range since November? Lol

EPS continues the RNA right through the last week of this month. It would appear the CanSIPS wasn’t so crazy after all with its prediction for February a couple of weeks ago

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

That’s not even a classic EPO ridge, see Bluewave’s post. But you go ahead and forecast a snowstorm for next week with no North Atlantic blocking, no -NAO and a -PNA. I wish you luck

What’s going to be classic is next week when this is another rain event for the metro area. It’s an awful setup, you know it and so do the others who are hyping this. Model consensus? Lol Like the model consensus 6 days out for “snowstorms” that all have fallen apart since late November? How many now? NYC has recorded one inch since 11/15/18 - today