snowman19

Besides the bad PAC, we have this fact, Don warned that this SSW may end up benefiting Eurasia @donsutherland1 @bluewave...

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust.

Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

The last storm it sure didn’t. It overdid the confluence/cold and suppressed the storm so severely that it had areas which got 40+ inches of snow barely getting 4 inches. One of the most epic busts of all time. It also totally missed the mid-level warm nose over the metro area

He’s extremely arrogant and condescending. Back in November he was hyping a “huge”, “historic” -EPO coming for December. He actually had an attitude towards anyone who questioned it. That turned into an epic fail. Not surprisingly that he’s back on the hype train for January. Everything is historic, huge and epic to him, and don’t you dare question him.....

The GFS is very likely too cold as usual, i.e. the last storm. The fact that it’s colder than all other guidance is a red flag. It’s bias at play again

Looks like the EPS wants no part of it at all so far

What is it showing? Just saw a tweet saying it was showing a miss, nothing. Not around my computer right now

The NAO block is too far south, it’s linking up with the WAR, so it does us no good

Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event

A cooler rain for the metro area

You are going to have to go way north of the metro area to get wintry with this one. Like interior central and northern New England north

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO. All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

Yep and it’s real warm for our neck of the woods in the metro area too...upper 50’s

Yep. It’s always the same cast of characters humming the same old SSW tune every winter

Best east coast snowstorm pattern we’ve seen since January, 1996 right?

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

When you hold all your hopes on a “major” SSW event to completely flip the long wave pattern at the end of December, it usually doesn’t end well......

You’re just repeating the hype from the weenie mets on twitter. Literally every winter from November through March they scream about the massive SSWs and SPV splits that are coming. Snake oil salesmen. Fact is, despite what these clowns say, SSWs and SPV splits don’t automatically mean a huge arctic cold and snow dump into the eastern US. In fact, it may just benefit Eurasia and do nothing here, as has been the case numerous times in the past. But they have everyone fooled to believe that every SSW or SPV split event is going to turn the east coast into an arctic tundra. Most of the time they are wrong in predicting these events to top it off, they either don’t end up happening or happen on a very muted scale. It’s a real bad sign when you are depending on SSWs and SPV splits to cause large scale favorable pattern changes, a lot of things are usually going really wrong at that point.....

Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed

Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2.....

The GEFS and GEPS were incredibly ugly all the way out to the end. The EPS wasn’t really any bargain either

Correct, we also have a +WPO, which is adding to the PAC driven mess. People need to be aware too, that the -NAO block may set up too far south....that needs to be kept in mind here. A too far south block hooking up with the WAR (no 50/50 low) is not good. That block needs to establish itself further north or you have big problems

There in lies a big issue, the PAC jet. Over the last several winters, every attempt at sustained +PNA ends up falling apart because the juiced PAC jet crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up

The model continue to show a strong +EPO and have backed off on sustained +PNA. Until you lose the AK troughing, you aren’t going to get durable cold into the CONUS. The +EPO is completely cutting off any cross-polar flow. You also have a +WPO. Despite the -NAO and -AO, this is not an arctic cold pattern and it may be extremely difficult to get east coast snowstorms until the PAC changes, negative AO/NAO isn’t going to cut it with a Pacific that looks like that