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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    For starters, the arctic cold went to our side of the pole, among other key differences. Read up: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/
  2. snowman19
    The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one
  3. snowman19
    Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future
  4. snowman19
    My area is staying above freezing at the surface tonight. But you’re right, you are going to have to dynamically cool the column with strong UVV’s/lift and heavy precip rates to turn it back over to all snow. The models aren’t very impressive with QPF for the duration right now though
  5. snowman19
    This is why those 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS. If there’s sleet, there’s a mid-level warm nose, those 10:1 maps count sleet as snow. That’s why I use the positive snow depth maps in these very marginal situations. The ratios are more like 5:1 tonight given the mid-level warming situation and the garbage boundary layer....those more accurate snow depth maps for the HRRR and NAM give my area less than an inch of snow for the duration
  6. snowman19
    Sleet here now....obviously a mid-level warm nose has worked in
  7. snowman19
    I’m 34, very light drizzle in Sloatsburg. The new NAM and HRRR are very unimpressive for snow with the next round here in Rockland
  8. snowman19
    The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours
  9. snowman19
    Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger
  10. snowman19
    I’m sorry. 84. Totally misspoke. 84
  11. snowman19
    This is going to be an ugly NAM run for snow it would appear, still running
  12. snowman19
    Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 Edit: I meant I-84. My apologies
  13. snowman19
    Not trolling. That 10:1 ratio map is severely overdone and wrong. It incorrectly counts sleet as snow. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios, it’s going to be way lower than that and the boundary layer is really horrible. There is also a mid-level warm punch, the NAM has it going to all rain even up here
  14. snowman19
    That is map is way overdone. This is the more realistic one: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2021010118&fh=60
  15. snowman19
    36 here in Sloatsburg, down a degree from 37 an hour ago. This should be about as low as we get for this one. This mid-level warmth has already punched in, not expecting much more than rain from this one, maybe a few sleet pellets at the start, but this is going to be mainly rain for us
  16. snowman19
    Agree. This is an 84 and north event. I’d honestly want to be north of 84 for this one
  17. snowman19
    Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County
  18. snowman19
    Not saying it doesn’t look good for storms, if you want cold, it’s ugly, real ugly. @MJO812 for the 100th time, ugly for getting arctic cold
  19. snowman19
    That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open
  20. snowman19
    Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now
  21. snowman19
    The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run
  22. snowman19
    It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think
  23. snowman19
    How exactly will it definitely improve the PAC? And how does it not matter at all if all the cold ends up on the other side of the pole?
  24. snowman19
    If you think Monday is a snowstorm setup, I don’t know what to tell you. In fact, it may actually end up being a cutter
  25. snowman19
    Agree. The GFS has no credibility whatsoever anymore. This is a horrid antecedent airmass and everything would have to literally be 100% perfect, flawless, to get a snowstorm in the metro area. I’ll sell on a snowstorm for Monday
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