snowman19

I have, and there are several members leaning NW of the mean. My views have not changed at all

No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

Who cares what the FV3 shows? Confirmed worst model out there. So incredibly horrible that NWS won’t even implement due to all the complaints about its abysmal performance

Here is the NAM total snowfall for tomorrow night/Thursday morning and the snow showers on Friday, all combined: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022700&fh=84

You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck

Saturday does not look like 1-3 inches at all. It’s rain unless you’re in New England

The UKMET is also total weak sauce, 1002mb low. Unimpressive

I’m talking March 15th on. Not pre March 15th

Completely different, rare situation, that’s not happening this time. As a general rule it’s over for the NYC metro come 3/15 minus a rare setup

March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude.

The cold early March time frame, 1st-9th is legit, courtesy of the -EPO. I just don’t see a big snowstorm during that period, why? No -NAO. No -AO either. Flow is very fast and the PNA is negative, very negative in fact. The thing that separates us from the past several March’s is the NAO, the block is just not there this time

The thing that “saved” the last few March’s was the strong -NAO blocks that would pop up at the beginning of the month, this year, that ain’t happening. There’s nothing to stop the PAC jet from just blasting across the CONUS this time

Unusually strong signals for warmth starting March 9th onward with the tropical convective forcing propagation. March, 2012 warmth? No, but definitely well above normal. As far as snow before the 10th? The setup is not good IMO. No -NAO or -AO, very fast flow, -PNA. If something does pop up, it’s very likely to be minor and not a coastal storm

I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point.

The new Euro has the same old repeating pattern we’ve been seeing since November right through day 10, hit the repeat button. That takes us through March 5th. We’re running out of time here

The 1st week of March looks less and less impressive for cold and it always looked like a dud for snow. The fat lady is walking up on stage and clearing her vocal cords right now

After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it

March is less than a week away now. Discuss :-)

This 100% percent. You can already see the post 1st week of March torch coming.

The 1st week of March looks cold and that’s it. You aren’t going to get a +PNA to build for any length of time. Why? Look at Bluewave’s new post, you have a super strong PAC jet slamming into the west coast, it crashes into any +PNA that tries to form and knocks it right down. You aren’t going to sustain a +PNA with that raging jet attacking it. Also, no -NAO yet again. No -AO. Bad pattern in early March for an east coast snowstorm for those reasons. The MJO moves into the eastern IO in the first couple days of March and that tropical forcing fully supports a torch pattern developing like all the models are showing after the first week of the month

He’ll still be going strong in April, predicting MJO phase 8, SSW’s, modoki El Nino forcing, blizzards and arctic cold death for NYC while the rest of the civilized world is enjoying spring

2/21-2/28 looks mild and not favorable at all for snow. 3/1-3/7 looks cold but the models have the pattern breaking down to mild again right after that week. PNA goes negative again towards mid month and zonal flow takes over again with the PAC jet once again blasting in. If something is going to happen snow wise, it needs to be that week, and par for the course this winter, even though it gets cold 3/1-3/7, no -NAO block, unlike last March, we couldn’t buy a -NAO this entire winter

The EPS has had a “great signal” in the long range since November, same with the weeklies. Going on 5 months of “great signals”. We should have about 300 inches of snow by now according to the EPS