snowman19
-
Posts
9,370 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around
-
There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites
-
Sure. Solar spring starts 2/8, meteorological spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts 3/20
-
Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8
-
The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo
-
As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him?
-
And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..
-
If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO
-
Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk
-
Not once did I say torch. Nowhere in my post was the word torch used….unless “mild” is the new synonym for “torch”
-
Where did I say torch? It is going to get mild after mid-month. Not once did I say torch
-
Everyone buckle up for deep winter, late February and March. Just read JB declared winter is dead in 3 weeks, said the MJO is going into phase 4 and it’s all over. This means a March, 2018 redux is coming…..
-
Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March
-
39 and raining in Sloatsburg
-
By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS
-
Nothing cool about that look lol but nah, not yet, after mid-month, then I probably will lol ;-)
-
Severely positive NAM/++NAO, ++AO, there will be nothing to stop a SE ridge pump
-
Right, just like you said late November and December was going to be very cold and snowy
-
Pretty clear trends on the new ensemble guidance tonight that a mild pattern starts to set in during mid-month
-
The new CPC outlook completely disagrees that the current pattern continues into mid and late month:
-
Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, and Westchester will be under a WWA by tomorrow afternoon I would think
-
What’s bad about a freezing rain storm? Knocking your power out for days in sub freezing temps, no heat, then your water pipes freeze, burst and destroy your house?
-
Out of curiosity why do you think it’s nice to get freezing rain and sleet? Serious question
-
Freezing rain and sleet. This isn’t turning into a NYC snowstorm
-
The GFS is a huge outlier, not even going to bother talking about the UKMET, which is a really horrible model and its “snow” maps are severely overdone and totally inaccurate, it’s not snow, it’s showing sleet as snow. That aside, the ICON, CMC, Euro, EPS, RGEM, NAM all do not have this as a snow event. All their outputs show zero snow in the metro area and have it completely as a sleet and freezing rain event mainly north and west of NYC
