snowman19

The GEFS has now joined the EPS and the GEPS in showing a big Aleutian ridge, -PNA/RNA by 1/25. Unanimous agreement. It would appear that the long awaited canonical La Niña response is on the way

The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative

The -EPO bias has been very severe for years now with all models, in particular the GEFS. The GEFS will insist on -EPO blocking run after run and won’t let it go until the last second, meanwhile the EPS and GEPS already figured out it wasn’t happening 10 runs earlier and dropped it. It’s been the GEFS’s MO for several winters in a row now, they’ve all been pretty horrible with that bias

2014 had a severely negative EPO and a severely positive PDO, neither of which we are going to have. It also did not have a solidly moderate La Niña like we have now. It also featured an extremely positive NAO and AO

Yep, it’s actually moving up the Niña pattern flip earlier instead of keeping it way out in the long range and not moving it forward in time. Now, it wants to pump an Aleutian ridge and dump a full latitude trough into the west (-PNA/RNA) by 1/24. The advertised late month pattern flip to canonical La Niña seems like it’s going to be real

As expected, the -EPO has disappeared and the +PNA is getting weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, the raging PAC jet keeps crashing into any +PNA ridge that tries to develop and knocks it right back down. I guess the PAC side is just not going to cooperate through 1/19

The GEPS looks just as bleak as the other 2 models right through 1/19

Another modeled -EPO fail incoming. The beat goes on....hit the repeat button

It’s not a wishcast. It’s actually happening. In fact it’s now a west-based La Niña. The coldest anomalies are in region 4, and region 4 continues to drop. There is no rapid weakening, the trade winds are screaming, we’re in the midst of a huge burst and the SOI is positive as hell. That rapid weakening forecast is going to be dead wrong, the CFS nailed this

More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong.

This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold:

It’s not only weakening the +PNA it’s lost the -EPO, which isn’t a shock, it’s been doing that for years now

Agreed. It is not a good look for us through at least 1/16. The window for us to score is definitely narrowing, I’d say the time to watch is 1/17 - 1/28....by 1/28, the models want to go canonical La Niña; Aleutian ridge, -PNA/+EPO and they start to quickly lose the -AO/-NAO couplet, both are going positive in the closing days of this month. Far out obviously, but right now it doesn’t look pretty going into the beginning of February

Agree. It’s probably going to be post 1/16 for any real snow threats

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

Isotherm thinks the shift to canonical Niña at the end of this month and February is real. It would fit Niña climo

I was waiting for the CMC to have one of its classic overamped rogue runs....there it is lol

That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent

Exactly. If something is going to happen, more than likely it’s post 1/16 or so

It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away....

The op Euro has been garbage so far this winter, not only too amped, but has been flip flopping like crazy

Who knows, maybe this time, at long last, after over 3 winters of the models showing it in the long-range and being dead wrong, there’s really a -EPO period, until it actually happens though, it’s the boy who cried wolf. I have no problem believing the +PNA spike however I think that happens. I guess we’ll see about this big -EPO

Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts

I’ll believe the -EPO when we actually see it happen in real time. How many times now over the last few winters...even as recently as the big -EPO period that was advertised in the long range back in November has it been a total fail? The models have been popping phantom -EPO’s in the long range for years now only to have them disappear and never verify. I can see a +PNA, sure, but -EPO? Color me real skeptical

Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia