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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Euro, total miss like the UKMET
  2. snowman19
    And the GFS caves to the Euro…..
  3. snowman19
    Absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any SSWE right through the beginning of March, also the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and we get into a mild pattern by the 20th, also looks like March is going to be mild as well as of now:
  4. snowman19
    Don’t remember asking your for your vapid opinion. I was talking to Ray but thanks anyway for your useless drivel
  5. snowman19
    Yep, once you get to 3/15, if you live south of New England, it’s game over
  6. snowman19
    I don’t know if you’ve seen but there are people clinging to a possible SSWE the 1st week of March lol At that point, it’s time to pack it up and call it quits…..
  7. snowman19
    The Ukie was a complete miss too as was the GFS and CMC. The 6z EPS was just as bad too. This “threat” is in trouble
  8. snowman19
    It’s probably going to take a couple of cycles but it has begun to cave toward the EPS as Commodity Wx pointed out
  9. snowman19
    The cave has begun…..
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
    I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance:
  12. snowman19
    The CFS weeklies are also identical to the GEPS and EPS, the tropical convective forcing change and the -AAM drop supports this. You also have a record breaking strong SPV which is coupling going into late month. This time, the change is almost certainly real and this isn’t a week or 2 change, as depicted it is going to have staying power going into the beginning of March
  13. snowman19
    If something happens next week, that’s probably all she wrote for winter. The pattern turns into this right after and into March:
  14. snowman19
    Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around
  15. snowman19
    There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites
  16. snowman19
    Sure. Solar spring starts 2/8, meteorological spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts 3/20
  17. snowman19
    Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8
  18. snowman19
    The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo
  19. snowman19
    As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him?
  20. snowman19
    And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..
  21. snowman19
    If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO
  22. snowman19
    Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk
  23. snowman19
    Not once did I say torch. Nowhere in my post was the word torch used….unless “mild” is the new synonym for “torch”
  24. snowman19
    Where did I say torch? It is going to get mild after mid-month. Not once did I say torch
  25. snowman19
    Everyone buckle up for deep winter, late February and March. Just read JB declared winter is dead in 3 weeks, said the MJO is going into phase 4 and it’s all over. This means a March, 2018 redux is coming…..
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