snowman19

Not really that bold. Look at the week after St. Patrick’s Day. Still a very positive NAO. If there was a -NAO block showing up like last year, and the last few March’s, then you have an argument. Once you get to 3/15, climatology alone at our latitude says it’s over minus a freak event and even then, how many major snowstorms have hit the NYC metro area after that date, in history? It gets even worse by 3/20, Equinox. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, long days. And late March “cold” is totally different than winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) cold. Our average temps are skyrocketing at that point. “Cold” compared to average isn’t all that cold

Look at the end of next week

Classic torch end of next week. Enjoy. Winter’s last gasps were this week. Fat lady is singing, it’s over Johnny, say goodnight and goodbye, ship is sailing

Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. That’s not what I said stop misquoting me. I said after the 1st week of March, it was done. It’s really is meaningless what you see, all winter long you were cancelling winter then bringing it back

There is a big warm up coming though. Starting this weekend (tomorrow) right through St. Patrick’s Day, over a week

That is what I’m talking about. That’s a horrible map, it’s including sleet as snow, grossly overdone and not even close. Those 10:1 ratio maps are junk. Here’s the real snow map: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030718&fh=84

No it wasn’t a thump of snow. The 10:1 ratio “snow” maps are severely, grossly overdone. Real bad. It counts sleet as snow. Look at this, this is the actual snowmap: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030712&fh=84

Where in my post did I say it can’t snow after the 20th? It can and has. That wasn’t the point. The point was ‘a really good’ winter pattern developing come March 20th. That would be the problem right there. It’s spring at that point. It’s not Nov 20th or Dec 20th or Jan 20th, or even Feb 20th, it’s March. At our latitude. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, climatology fighting you, length of day fighting you. Time to realize, winter’s days are numbered

A “really good” pattern possibly developing March 20th (Equinox)? Too little, too late. We’re not at Canada’s latitude

I don’t even look at the FV3 anymore. That model hasn’t been worth a damn all winter

It had been showing 2 inches. It dropped it, no model has so much as a half inch of snow now. Even the most liberal of all maps shows less than a half inch

Less than a half inch total for the metro area? Even at 10:1 ratios including sleet as a total? That’s dumping it lmfaooo

The models have all unanimously dropped the Friday night/Saturday minor event a couple of them had been showing. Nothing showing even so much as a half inch of snow now

The models have the surface right at 32 degrees (barely) up here in Rockland County for tonight at the coldest. This is going to be heavy wet paste. Typical for a March storm

Friday night/Saturday is the last shot at snow if it even happens, very sketchy right now and it appears to be real minor. The pattern starts flipping Saturday

It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle

The Euro just caved to the other guidance. Went way SE and it’s not done yet, neither are the others

It’s not done Anthony. I made the mistake of believing the Euro a couple of days ago, and the setup at the time did support its solutions, but everything changed once these shortwaves moved through and altered the flow. This thing is going SE and it isn’t done moving yet

The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, baroclinic zone getting dragged way east “The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk”

Terribly deceiving. The NAM went way SE for tonight btw like you said before, it’s only 1-2 inches total for tonight/tomorrow. Here is the REAL depiction of the snowfall from that NAM run and it’s nowhere even close to that other bogus snowmap which includes sleet as snow, and you have to subtract 1-2 inches from this total because it includes tonight/tomorrow morning: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030118&fh=81

Right, very close. The mid-level warming and surface temps are going to lower ratios and cause sleet intrusion, dropping totals IMO

I think the mid level warm nose is going to limit snowfall tonight/tomorrow morning. There is going to be a lot of sleet. I think the 1-2” forecast from the NWS is very reasonable

It’s called a changing pattern. Yes, that was a risk a few days ago. Shortwaves and stream flows moved around. You do know weather changes and evolves right?

The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022818&fh=48