snowman19

Correct that phase 7 isn’t bad in January, not great but not bad, however, the concerns that it doesn’t advance into phase 8 are definitely valid

I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced….

That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see…..

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

I would have to agree that the end of this month into early January is colder, assuming that the MJO wave progresses normally, into 7, 8, 1, which is a big “if” right now. The question then become post 1/10. Some models are showing IO convection flaring up by mid-January. If that’s really the case (another “if) then the pattern will start to mild up as we progress into mid-late January and February in the absence of some major SSWE. There are a lot of questions going forward and given the severely -PDO and -PMM, I would seriously doubt any extended +PNA run being shown on the models. We have been constantly defaulting back to a big -PNA/RNA since the beginning of September

Wasn’t the JMA showing a very cold December with a big trough over the east at the end of last month?

The big La Niña strengthening period shown by the models at the end of October/beginning of November worked out very well. It has now reached moderate (-1.1C in region 3.4) strength. One thing is certain, the La Niña and the record -PDO/-PMM will not be denied. The long range models show convection starting to fire in the IO by mid-January, to be taken with a grain of salt of course, but should that happen, it will get milder again after the end of December/early January period, which fits Niña climo. If that’s going to be the case we will need a major SSW to really shake things up so we don’t follow -ENSO climo (warmer) going into mid-late January and February. This is a very well coupled -ENSO event, unlike last year….. @donsutherland1

I’m still waiting for the 8-12 inches in my area that the GFS showed for run after run earlier this month…..

The EPS is not showing a KU pattern

If the PNA rise is real and that’s a big if, then you have a major snowstorm pattern. I’ll believe a +PNA when I see it. Let’s see if those 2 models hold it for more than a couple of runs

Central and northern Northern New England should do well….

Looks good for New England

As long as there is a mega -PNA/full latitude trough in the west, we have big problems here, real big. And the La Niña just peaked at moderate intensity in early December, which some said would never, ever happen….it should have been long dead and gone back in October, that’s going nowhere fast. The weak SPV in December didn’t happen either….the SPV is very strong and we have the strongest -PDO since the 1950’s. It’s time to stop listening to the wishcasters and listen to reality. The SE ridge is going to be a real big problem too….look at those blazing SSTs along and off the east coast…..feeding back into it

All the people who wrote off the La Niña as “dead” back in October were dead wrong. It just went moderate, peaking in December. Time to start praying for a major SSW to disrupt the normal Niña progression for mid-late January and February, especially given the severely -PDO/coupled Niña or the pattern is going to torch big time once the tropical convective forcing moves back to the maritime continent as per normal Niña climo, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled….

@donsutherland1 They are all very persistent with the -PNA, also, some big questions on what actually happens with the MJO and if it actually gets into phase 8 or does then dies out. Allan explains: Also, the La Niña has now gone moderate, doesn’t appear to be going anywhere soon, it’s effects will certainly continue into January, February, March:

A big concern for sure

I was not trolling anyone. My point is this, the hype about the upcoming pattern on twitter is crazy. This is not even close to 95-96 as some are saying there, which was a classic KU monster snowstorm pattern. 95-96 was a 1st year Niña, coming off a Nino, you had ++PNA galore, +PDO and a +PMM, which lead to a Nino like STJ. Super west-based -NAO, strong -AO, strong -EPO/-WPO and it was off to the races. This winter, aside from there being a La Niña is night and day different, the biggest difference being the huge RNA/-PNA, -PDO/-PMM and we have an extremely well coupled Niña, unlike 95-96 where it barely ever coupled. I respectfully disagree with some about a -PNA not mattering, it’s going to help pump the SE ridge and given the ridiculously warm SSTs off the coast, it’s just going to give it more juice. If there’s any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE during a storm formation it will really boost the ridge and then you will have cutting issues. Just my opinion

You are going to get cutters with a full latitude -PNA trough in the west and a SE ridge. Keep following the wish casters and believe that a huge cold and snowstorm pattern is inbound. It’s hilarious

That’s a cutter pattern not an east coast snowstorm pattern

For central and northern New England? Yes I would agree

Here come the “it’s only warm aloft” posts. The severely -PNA full latitude trough in the west, as depicted is a huge problem. It’s a cutter pattern through and through and I don’t care what the abysmally awful GFS shows, there’s no way to sugar coat that look in the long range…huge -PNA and strong SE ridge city, not only that, the blazing SSTs along and off the east coast just act to sustain and positively feedback into that SE ridge and the WAR. Once you get any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE, it’s only going to act to pump the SE ridge even more. The pattern depicted in the long range is not anything close to arctic cold or a KU pattern for us

The common theme through the end of the month on all ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) is the continuation of that -PNA, full latitude trough in the west

@donsutherland1 @bluewave One of the most well coupled Nina’s in history….

You need to move to New England lol