snowman19

Expectations need to be really tamed here….first and foremost it’s March after all and it gets very, very hard post 3/15 to get anything big snow-wise at this latitude. Second, the real “big” March snowstorms had strong west-based -NAO blocks….that’s not happening this year, they also usually had very anomalous true arctic outbreaks and not seeing signs of a true arctic outbreak here on the models….the Plains, Rockies and Upper Midwest maybe. I wouldn’t rule out some minor/moderate snow and/or ice events (obviously I-84 favored) but the upcoming setup definitely does not scream KU’s riding up the coast to me, that’s for sure

When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less

If you want, I’ll throw a few pitchers of water on my driveway to freeze it up tonight and you can come over and slip and fall on it for a couple of hours. It should produce that good old deep winter feel for you. I’m right up in Rockland County, let me know…..

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling

Surprised by the magnitude of this ping fest. Got about 2 inches of sleet, no snow though, started as sleet from the beginning just after midnight then went over to freezing rain/rain at 9am. The sun is just starting to break through now :-)

Yea, let’s find the coldest outlier models and use those. Rockland isn’t getting 4 inches of snow or anything close to it with those midlevel low tracks and the associated midlevel warm nose, but you keep wishcasting that. Let’s just ignore this and the NAM huh: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48 Edit: And the RGEM, ignore them all

The models are getting more aggressive with the SE ridge and western trough/-PNA as we move closer in time thanks to the MJO event Dr. Ventrice spoke of. Also still a very strong SPV, ++NAO/++AO to boot

And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain

This didn’t age well….https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48

That warm tongue is almost certainly being under modeled right now, as is typical. I can easily see this event start as sleet instead of snow and go over to all rain south of I-84

That forecast will change :-)

Don’t worry, given the setup this will certainly continue to bump north right up until tomorrow afternoon. Would not be at all surprised to see the NAM being the closest to reality

Maybe it’ll make for a chilly, rainy end of March lol Spring is coming

This is working out exactly as it looked days ago…..a non event for snow and big ping fest going to all rain south of I-84. The GFS is trash, too cold as usual, I think the ICON is actually better. The NAM is the way to go. This one is going to continue to trend north and warmer in the midlevels right up until tomorrow afternoon

Yes they do, that is not snow on that Ukie map, it’s grossly overdone, counting sleet as snow. I suspect the new Euro comes in warmer given what it did at 6z. Nothing at all has changed since yesterday, it is still a non event for snow south of I-84. It’s a ping-fest at best south of 84

Yea, not sure why some think that pattern looks so great…..yea, there’s the -EPO but you also have ++NAO, ++AO and -PNA. The SPV is still projected to be raging strong as well, so those teleconnection forecasts showing an AO drop around mid-March are very suspect. And, it’s going to be into mid-March at that point. Yawn…..

Unmmmm no the Ukie didn’t show that. Before you post, get your facts straight, those Ukie “snow” maps count sleet as snow and are therefore overdone

It doesn’t look colder in the midlevels, they are torched, that’s why it barely has any snow at all south of I-84

Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4

His wishes, hopes and prayers. I don’t know why he’s persistently trying to wishcast this into a NYC metro area snowstorm. It’s not happening

Look at the soundings, that is definitely not snow south of I-84, it’s sleet at best with that midlevel warm nose and almost all of the time those warm noses are badly underestimated not overdone by the models

There’s virtually no snow at all on that south of I-84. The midlevels are completely torched and fast. The midlevel low tracks are awful

That’s not how it works

Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead