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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC
  2. snowman19
    WWA for Rockland, 1-2 inches of snow and sleet, followed by freezing rain/ice accumulation
  3. snowman19
    Either the GFS/GEFS is going to score a rare coup or it’s going to bust horribly. The Euro/EPS, CMC/GEPS and UKMET are in agreement with a completely different solution with that low in the Great Lakes
  4. snowman19
    The NAM wants nothing to do with it. It’s now showing half an inch of snow total, even up here. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121512&fh=81
  5. snowman19
    Yea, the 10:1 ratio snowmaps aren’t going to work for this one either. There’s a lot of sleet in there getting counted as snow and the ratios are lower than 10:1 again. This isn’t a deep arctic airmass in place Monday and the models always underestimate the mid-level WAA/warm nose until the last minute
  6. snowman19
    You did it for me
  7. snowman19
    The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow
  8. snowman19
    Yes, the type of -NAO and the strength matters, a weak or even moderate -NAO or an east-based -NAO does you no good at all when the PAC is total garbage. When the PAC is real bad, you need a strong/very strong Greenland blocked, west-based negative NAO. You also need a strong/very strong -AO to go along with it or you’re going to have big, big problems
  9. snowman19
    A +PNA ridge doesn’t help you with a very strong PAC jet crashing into it, it gets blown apart as fast as it forms, see last winter. If that’s going to be the case again, the Atlantic and arctic sides need to cooperate and compensate for what’s happening on the Pacific side with very strong blocks (west-based -NAO Greenland block and -AO) or you’re dead in the water again since our weather comes in from the west
  10. snowman19
    Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks
  11. snowman19
    He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....
  12. snowman19
    Because the GFS is so accurate at Day 10. It flip flops like pancakes at IHOP. By far the most horrible model out there
  13. snowman19
    Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol
  14. snowman19
    How was your white rain this morning? Lol
  15. snowman19
    The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend
  16. snowman19
    The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...
  17. snowman19
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either
  18. snowman19
    That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend
  19. snowman19
    The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier
  20. snowman19
    Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm
  21. snowman19
    Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow
  22. snowman19
    This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84
  23. snowman19
    Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that
  24. snowman19
    Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90
  25. snowman19
    Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?
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