snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you
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The most any model brings up to Rockland is 5 or 6 inches total at the very most, most are 4-5 inches. This includes all the new guidance (GFS, NAM 3K/12K, RGEM, HRDPS, CMC, Ukie, Euro, ICON). Honestly nothing has changed at all up this way since yesterday afternoon. This is an eastern Long Island and eastern New England snow blitz this time
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Another run confirming this is not a big deal NW of NYC. Long Island and eastern NE get crushed however
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This is close to a total non event for everyone NW of NYC (Orange, Rockland, Bergen, Passaic counties). It’s 1-3 inches total at best there. If you want big totals, they will be in LI and eastern NE IMO
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The Euro definitely went east and it doesn’t look way better than the last run as some have posted
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Did you see the Ukie yet? Someone just posted on Twitter that it’s a disaster, it’s not out of Pivotal weather yet
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The CMC went east, I knew when I saw the RGEM it would. The Euro is probably next
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Started running again…..the ICON is GFS like…
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Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later
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It isn’t too often that the twin forks, Montauk Point and Fishers Island stay all snow and places like Orange, Rockland, Passaic still get heavy snow out of it like the Euro is showing, that would be an extremely unusual storm should that actually happen
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The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC
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I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me
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Assuming the new Euro doesn’t start backing down then yea, we are probably starting to see a full GFS cave to its solution….I’d like to see what the CMC and Ukie do next like you said….don’t really care about the ICON, it ends up bowing to consensus just before an event anyway…..
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The GEFS got even more aggressive with the -PNA in early February, dropping it to below -4
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Agree, and what we just saw from the 18z GFS is the most likely “bad” outcome for our area, not a runner/cutter. This one is either a big hit or too far east and an eastern New England hit, I don’t care what the twitterologists are saying, this one isn’t a hugger, runner or cutter, the flow is too fast and any PNA correction is going to push it further offshore with the resulting downstream trough adjustment
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In my opinion this one is for eastern LI and eastern NE. The CMC is overamped, which it likes to do at this range. I think the risk here is OTS not hugger or runner. I would not be at all surprised to see this trend east over the next few days
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Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS
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I think that’s the least likely possibility. If anything the threat is OTS not inland runner/cutter IMO
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What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position
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It has zilch for snow, it’s actually gotten worse aloft for anything here. We’ll see what happens at 0z but for now it’s the CMC vs the world, no other model is even remotely close to what it just showed
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The UKMET is not even in the same universe as the CMC
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Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable
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The ensembles look very warm right after 2/1. The SE ridge is coming back with a vengeance next month and this time, there will be no -NAO/-AO to tame it like there was during the last RNA period we had in December. Also, the models have doubled down on a very strong SPV in February
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People can talk shit about the Euro not being good anymore all they want, but when it consistently shows miss after miss that’s a huge red flag IMO
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Yea, nothing supports a SSWE right now. We are literally a 180 degree opposite of last winter when we had that major SSW occur. The SPV looks like it will be extremely strong and coupled come early - mid February. And the models are actually getting more aggressive with the -PNA and +AO/+NAO
