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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....
  2. snowman19
    Next weekend’s setup sucks south of New England still, don’t worry, the NYC metro area will get their chance post 1/20, be patient
  3. snowman19
    The cold biased op GFS at day 7, what could possibly go wrong??.....
  4. snowman19
    There wouldn’t be a worse scenario, if we go back into 4/5 in early-mid February, it’ll be time to start thinking about next winter
  5. snowman19
    If it actually does that you can kiss most of February goodbye
  6. snowman19
    I can’t disagree with you here really. I think the models may be rushing it a bit and overdoing the cold and blocking at the beginning to an extent but yes, I think when we look back at this winter, the period from 2/1 - 3/20 will be a lot more memorable for winter weather than 12/1 - 1/31
  7. snowman19
    That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again
  8. snowman19
    Based on how the pattern has been progressing since November, just my opinion, I have a hard time believing that we lock in a real cold, blocked up pattern for 6 weeks straight (2/1 - 3/15). Could I be wrong? Yep and stranger things have happened but I definitely would not bet on such a scenario happening given where we just came from
  9. snowman19
    Looks like I was too slow with my thoughts on the colder regime. Post 1/20 looks good for colder and yea, assuming the models are correct and the MJO propagates into phase 8 come 2/1 or thereabouts, I think the question then becomes is this a “locked in” (all of February to mid-March 40+ day) change to colder and blocked or is it back to a mild regime, a la the Euro weeklies?
  10. snowman19
    If it does get colder on 1/20, that doesn’t cancel out the previous 3 weeks of warmth for this month. The last week of January won’t salvage this month lol
  11. snowman19
    Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO
  12. snowman19
    It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..
  13. snowman19
    I honestly have not seen anyone deny that January is a total lost cause. I think everyone has conceded. I agree that the change comes in February, assuming the propagation into 7, 8, 1 really happens at the beginning of February. Question is, is this a sustained cold change into mid-March or is it a quick hit of colder, then back to warmer than normal? I don’t think that can be answered definitively until we get into early February
  14. snowman19
    Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15
  15. snowman19
    It looks like a change to colder isn’t coming until early to mid February, the question then becomes, is it a sustained (through mid-March) period of colder or is it in and out? I’m favoring mid-February, I can see a period of colder, something like 2/15 - 3/15. Once you get past 3/15, deep winter goes on life support south of New England
  16. snowman19
    It has less than half an inch of snow total: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84 And the NAM did not come west, this is bad info: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84
  17. snowman19
    The extreme warmth back in March, 2012 was unreal. I remember having to put on my air conditioner a couple days after St. Patrick’s Day, temps were well into the 80’s
  18. snowman19
    The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful
  19. snowman19
    It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February
  20. snowman19
    Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate
  21. snowman19
    Bluewave, Out of curiosity, which other winters (12/1-now) in NYC had the same or close to the same amount of snow to this point and how did those winters turn out? Snowfall wise?
  22. snowman19
    One of the years mentioned that “snapped back” in February and March was 1993, however, just keep in mind that back then you didn’t have SSTs of 90+ degrees over a large area north of Australia with heavy convection firing over it like we do now. It seems to be a positive feedback loop developing with a standing wave in that region
  23. snowman19
    The EPS is a ridiculously warm pattern starting after 1/10. Overdone? Maybe, but even if overdone wow
  24. snowman19
    The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow
  25. snowman19
    The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag
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