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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The new Euro weeklies through March: “It’s over Johnny”. -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO, SE ridge.....
  2. snowman19
    Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down
  3. snowman19
    This winter has found inventive ways not to snow
  4. snowman19
    We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you, the CMC and GFS are trash
  5. snowman19
    I don’t think there is going to be some miracle March flip this time. We are going into a record positive NAM (++AO, ++NAO), it should peak somewhere around 2/10 - 2/12, the PNA is also going to really tank at the same time, ensuring the rest of February is almost certainly cooked. I just don’t think there is some last minute March pattern flip
  6. snowman19
    No, I never take the CMC seriously, it’s almost as horrific as the GFS
  7. snowman19
    And the Euro is still all rain for the NYC metro area. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? Lol This never was a NYC snowstorm and it still isn’t
  8. snowman19
    The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z
  9. snowman19
    You and I have the same views here. I had been thinking March went cold and possibly snowy...I’ve since changed my view for the same reasons. I just don’t think it does the magical March flip this time, I think we go out 2012 style this year
  10. snowman19
    Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20
  11. snowman19
    No surprise, but the Euro looks nothing at all like the GFS and has wave 3 as a lakes cutter. The GFS is in a world all onto its own, huge outlier
  12. snowman19
    3 different waves yes, but absolutely nothing at all like what the GFS shows with over a foot of snow. Then the UKMET goes to a huge torch
  13. snowman19
    The operation GFS is the only one showing this, the GFS cold bias at it again. ICON, CMC, UKMET were rain, Euro up next...
  14. snowman19
    A cold rain for the NYC metro, enjoy!!
  15. snowman19
    You’ve been saying the models look good in the long range since the beginning of December
  16. snowman19
    Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow
  17. snowman19
    It’s trending worse because NAO and AO blocking are non existent, neither is +PNA
  18. snowman19
    Agree with you here, that look by mid-February and beyond isn’t just above normal, it looks way above normal. This winter has been Deja Vu 2011-2012, it’s uncanny
  19. snowman19
    Just looked after I saw your post and if they are correct, wow, say goodnight and goodbye winter 19-20
  20. snowman19
    The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug
  21. snowman19
    Every model, Euro UKMET GFS ICON CMC NAM is now dry for the weekend, they’ve even lost what little QPF they were showing yesterday
  22. snowman19
    It looks like a major RNA pattern coming up by mid-February. If that’s the case, the can is kicked until the end of the month or early March. At that point you can hear the clock ticking. After 3/15 it’s pretty much game over minus some anomalous freak snow event south of New England
  23. snowman19
    It’s over Johnny
  24. snowman19
    Yawn....
  25. snowman19
    Rain
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