snowman19

The GFS isn’t caving from being the worst model out there. Its severe cold bias is well known now

Yep nor does the ICON. It’s the GFS vs the world

Euro/EPS and UKMET want nothing to do with Thursday

No it should not have been. There is no cold high. It’s not a problem with thermals it’s a problem with cold air

The EPO floodgates are going to be wide open. One of the ugliest EPS runs this entire winter

Shocking, troughing back into AK after 2/16 and the EPO floodgates open up. Say goodbye to any cold that was left in Canada. Looks like the models are also strengthening the SPV again. This may be all she wrote for winter coming up....

It has less than an inch of snow, total. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020020812&fh=180

More fantasy snows from the Garbage Forecasting System. I don’t know what’s worse, that model or the CMC

Garbage airmass, no blocking. And that’s the severely cold-biased op GFS showing that, not to worry, that’ll verify as an all rain event for our entire forum by Thursday

Ugly is being nice. If that’s correct, no high latitude blocking at all, we go zonal and semizonal flow at the end of this month and all of Canada gets flooded with Pacific maritime air

I wish I had a dollar for everytime the models have pumped a fantasy -EPO ridge in the long range since the end of November

EPS looks like garbage again as far as the eye can see. If anyone is expecting a full scale pattern flip at the end of this month, it had better hurry

Exactly. There is no -NAO block to stop the amp and cut. The AO is super positive to top it off and the PNA is negative, the horrific pattern for east coast snowstorms continues unabated since early December and we are approaching mid-February now. This pattern is reminiscent of the 1980’s

Yea, I don’t know what some people are talking about but those weeklies are not showing Atlantic and arctic blocking and the PNA is still negative. While certainly not a torch, they definitely don’t look cold to me

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

It looks like we’ve flipped into a canonical -PDO. It was strongly negative in January

The pattern looks awful, -PNA/RNA, full latitude trough dumped into the west, super strong SPV, +NAO, +AO, SE ridge. Ugly as it gets

Is it really true that Joe Bastardi is still forecasting a cold and snowy February for the east coast? I read that on twitter. It has to be a joke right? Satire?

A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini

You had a historic SSW event 2 years ago that produced a very strong, anomalous -AO and - NAO/Greenland Block which lead to that March pattern. Nothing even remotely close to that is in the wings right now

Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day

Everything has trended badly for us since the beginning of December. Really right after that minor snow event at the beginning of the month, things started to go to very badly and they never came back again. I’m seeing some posts on social media about pattern flips “after mid-February”...I’ll believe it when I see it, I very seriously doubt some miracle end of February or March winter comeback

Saturday night and Sunday look less impressive with each model run as well

Agree. Big time warmth next week, probably a couple days well into the 60’s for most of the area

People in glass houses....