snowman19

Agree about a well inland threat. Verbatim, +NAO, no block, no 50/50 low. Plus an ongoing tendency of the models to badly underestimate the SE ridge/WAR at range, if a shortwave really amps it’ll be a runner or a cutter

They are the Joe Bastardi, Jr. of twitter now. I’m waiting for them to completely bail on their winter forecast just like they’ve done every year since 2019. It’s coming….

It hasn’t been that long. December, 2022 was cold

Yet another example of the SE ridge/WAR getting badly underestimated by the models until we get closer in time. Different winter, same story. The Atlantic has not changed one iota (+AMO). Maybe we see some sort of regime shift there too come spring and summer like I think may happen in the PAC

I mean bottom line, the background state is still the same and it’s not showing any signs of some unexpected, massive shift. We can count every pixel on the SSTA maps at this point and it’s not going to make any difference. Fact is, the PDO is still very strongly negative and the WPAC warm pool in MJO 4-6 is still there. It’s showing transient cooling due to the very strong convection firing, but the SSTs there are still a furnace and they extend deep below the surface. Once the convection lightens up, they will warm at the surface anew. IMO we are grasping at straws at this point. That said, I do think we see a big PAC regime (PDO, IO, WPAC warm pool, ENSO) shift but it’s not going to happen between today and March 30th. That’s going to be a driving feature of next winter….

@mitchnick It goes beyond ONI. It’s no longer a good ENSO indicator due to all the AGW background warming. It’s all just getting washed out. Case in point, look at what I just posted, it’s all indicative of a healthy La Niña event not La Nada despite the current ONI. It is absolutely a classic La Niña circulation. Atmospherically and oceanically:

It’s been cold and it’s going to get cold later this week. No doubt. You’d have to be a fool not to acknowledge that. Could very well be that we are seeing a classic “front-end loaded” La Niña. If that’s indeed the case, just lends even more confidence that the pattern goes canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March since we seem to be following a classic progression

@Bluewave @GaWx Here is a real good illustration of my point. The Niña standing wave is clear as day. The entire atmospheric and oceanic circulation is classic La Niña. Very good read here and why I seriously doubt the MJO signal ever makes it to or across the dateline:

It would not surprise me one bit if the MJO signal dies before ever going 8-1-2, given the reasons I stated yesterday. I absolutely believe we see a repeating phase 4-5-6 reemergence this winter for those reasons

The fact that even the -EPO happy long range EPS is seeing this speaks volumes. If that is in fact correct (Bering Sea trough/+WPO), it’s going to completely cutoff the arctic cross-polar flow and flood Canada and the lower 48 with PAC air. While not a “torch” it’s definitely mild verbatim And as far as La Niña, we are seeing the importance of looking past the traditional ONI for atmospheric and oceanic clues. AGW has skewed everything so warm, that the traditional indicators for ENSO events are getting largely washed out

Complete nonsense on the major SSW. The SPV stays very strong. And BS on getting cold. Huge ++EPO developing, the EPO floodgates open wide and the entire CONUS and Canada get flooded with PAC air for weeks. Good luck getting cold and snowy. EDIT: @brooklynwx99 With your track record the last few years I’d tread very very lightly. And I only quoted Eric Webb because @MJO812 was making love to him last week

Oh nice. So the idiot flat out admits that he’s doing it just to get subscription money from his east coast weenie base. Snake oil salesman spouting out lies and false info. He’s making a mockery of the profession for his own personal gain. What a total disgrace

@bluewave @GaWx The rapid Region 3.4 cooling is no surprise at all. There is no question that the atmosphere and ocean is strongly into La Niña mode as Paul Roundy clearly showed and the now classic CP/Modoki La Niña is going to gain a lot of strength this month. It’s finally responding oceanically with region 3.4 cooling dramatically. The -IOD is also gaining strength and is constructively interfering. +SOI, EWBs, Nina standing wave convection, MJO propagating strongly through 4-6, the entire global picture is screaming La Niña

I absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because that’s where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event. Some very good musings here:

JB rendered himself completely irrelevant years ago. The guy is delusional and willing to spread false info and lies to those who don’t know any better just for money, likes, retweets and follows. Only the hard core weenies take him seriously anymore. He’s nothing but a shit stain on the meteorological profession

We are very clearly in a La Niña state. @Bluewave likes to use these VP/OLR plots

I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion that we definitely go MJO 8-1-2 Anthony. Just posted about this: “I think the bigger question is this….do we actually see the MJO push into phases 8-1-2 in January or is this just another case of it totally crapping out at the dateline like we’ve seen over and over again? There is still an SSTA furnace in phases 4-7 and law of thermodynamics, that’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. That has not changed one iota. With the marked change toward a La Niña in the ENSO gynre, +SOI, -IOD, EWBs, standing wave convection, I’m not so sure we see a decided push into 8-1-2. The wave may fizzle out in the relatively cooler waters in those phase areas and the enhanced Niña trades may shear the convection apart as it tries to make a push to and beyond the IDL” ”I am doubtful of a major SSWE. Not to minimize the study GaWx found, which was compelling, but just based on the data StormchaserChuck posted, we are very closely (so far) following the Niña/+QBO/high solar years that featured a very cold stratosphere. Secondly, this year’s +QBO event isn’t just strong. It’s approaching record strong numbers”

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

I think the bigger question is this….do we actually see the MJO push into phases 8-1-2 in January or is this just another case of it totally crapping out at the dateline like we’ve seen over and over again? There is still an SSTA furnace in phases 4-7 and law of thermodynamics, that’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. That has not changed one iota. With the marked change toward a La Niña in the ENSO gynre, +SOI, -IOD, EWBs, standing wave convection, I’m not so sure we see a decided push into 8-1-2. The wave may fizzle out in the relatively cooler waters in those phase areas and the enhanced Niña trades may shear the convection apart as it tries to make a push to and beyond the IDL @bluewave Thoughts?

I am doubtful of a major SSWE. Not to minimize the study @GaWx found, which was compelling, but just based on the data @Stormchaserchuck1 posted, we are very closely (so far) following the Niña/+QBO/high solar years that featured a very cold stratosphere. Secondly, this year’s +QBO event isn’t just strong. It’s approaching record strong numbers

Color me very skeptical. -ENSO/+QBO/high solar is the LEAST likely combination to produce a major SSWE. Not saying that it’s impossible obviously, but the likely hood of a major SSWE is not good at all IMO @Stormchaserchuck1

The CFS is totally useless this far ahead. Check it again at the tail end of this month when it actually has credibility for January

Regardless of what happens with January, I’m starting to get more and more confident in a canonical Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA) February

This has been an issue with the EURO on the PAC side for years now. It grossly underestimates the MJO forcing and the strength of the PAC jet and pops phantom -EPO’s and +PNA’s in the long range, only to take them away as we get closer in time and it finally gets a clue

Just off the top of my head, in the last 5 years, BAMWX has bailed on 4 of their winter forecasts. In 2019, they bailed on their cold/snowy winter forecast at the end of December, in 2021 they bailed in late December, in 2022, they bailed on their winter forecast by the beginning of January, 2023. In 2023-2024, they bailed on February turning extremely blocky/cold/snowy by early February