snowman19

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

New NWS forecast: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Ok

I’m as confused as you

Noise. Nothing has changed since yesterday, very good model consensus (minus the awful NAM) on less than an inch for NYC and 1-2 for the NW suburbs, with the 2 inch amounts being up towards Orange, Passaic, Sussex. @donsutherland1

The NAM should have been discontinued years ago. I can’t believe NWS still bothers using it, it’s horrendous and hasn’t been updated in years. It’s as outdated and embarrassing as the NOGAPS

IMO we go -PNA next month. The big La Niña push we’ve been seeing with the forcing/standing wave/MJO/trades/SOI is not going to be denied. And it’s taking on a very Modoki signature

All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night

The amount of clowns on twitter saying there’s going to be a Norlun trough in NYC and NJ right now is comical

Remember how bad the EPS was last winter when it kept incorrectly killing off the Maritime Continent convection?

IMO, this is a meh at best, less than an inch of snow “event” Friday night. Glorified snow showers. The 0z runs trended less impressive if anything. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the models take another step back on today’s runs

Agreed. There is very clearly a La Niña standing wave there. Some people have no idea what they’re talking about. You don’t have Maritime Continent convection firing while in a true MJO phase 8. And the new GEPS is already showing a -PNA at the beginning of January

The Saturday snowstorm threat is done IMO. The models would be showing it by now. It was a totally thread the needle setup and if you look back, thread the needle setups haven’t worked for us in 10 years….since 2014. January, 2016 (blizzard), March, 2018 worked because of huge -NAO/-AO blocking and ditto for February, 2021.

See Judah Cohen’s new blog:

If that’s correct, even if the PAC goes favorable for cross polar flow after NYD, it’s going to take AWHILE to rebuild arctic air in Canada

How many times since the 15-16 winter have we seen the EPS/weeklies incorrectly barrel the MJO into phase 8 in the long range? I’ve lost count @jbenedet

What is your take on the new models showing a “Canadian warming” of the stratosphere at the end of this month? I know you follow that closely

We know. You will be tracking it till Saturday night, maybe Sunday lol

The weekend has not surprisingly trended into a nothing burger. We were trying to depend on a perfect +PNA spike in a perfect location with perfect downstream wave spacing and amping. A completely thread the needle setup…No -NAO and no 50/50 low and very fast northern stream flow, no southern stream involvement/phasing. It’s been doomed for awhile IMO

That’s the Niña standing wave and the reason why I think we go -PNA mode around the 2nd week of January as the entire “Nino like” NPAC pattern retros

Good discussion Don. I think we see a -PNA develop by the 2nd week of January. It’s pretty clear that the big “Nino like” NPAC trough is going to retro and I believe we see a -PNA take shape right around that time frame. The tropical PAC is very clearly in full Niña mode and it’s not going to be denied IMO

The fantasy on twitter is that Saturday is going to somehow miraculously, magically turn into some massive KU for the I-95 corridor and all the models are somehow missing it. This isn’t 2004, technology and the models are way advanced from the days when a massive snowstorm would just “pop up” out of nowhere 48 hours before an event. If this was actually going to be a big coastal snowstorm, one of the models would be showing that by now, which NONE of them are. And most importantly, the pattern in no way, shape or form supports such a scenario and no amount of wishcasting is going to change that