snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This La Niña is not going to be denied. Region 3.4 is dropping like a rock, we are at the lowest of this entire event, moderate on the dallies, approaching -1.5C. The subsurface has also dropped the last week. There’s also a very strong EWB projected to continue right into early February
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The NAO is also going to be positive as hell. Nothing about that setup screams big snow/ice south of I-84. No mechanism to stop it from moving further north in time
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@Rjay This is looking like a SWFE. These almost always end up being New England events. The GFS being the furthest south at this range is no surprise at all, it’s destined to adjust further north. These always end up moving further north as we get closer in time. Would not surprise me at all if this ends up being an I-84 north snow/ice storm with very minimal onset frozen to rain south of there. We’ve seen this play out time and time again over the years…..
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Region 3.4 dropping like a rock, the lowest of this event….approaching -1.5C. We are now at moderate on the dailies
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If Paul Roundy is right about the tropical forcing progression, this happens at mid-February and we don’t go into deep winter again like Ryan Kane is saying:
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Twitterland has had us buckled up since Thanksgiving. I’ve gotten 6 feet of modeled digital snow and twitter snow so far this winter
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That’s something to look at in the spring for clues to what ENSO does next winter
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@Stormchaserchuck1
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I could say the same about snow but I won’t. And not once did I say the word “warmth” you keep saying that lol
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February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into next month
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February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February
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With the exception of March, 2018, which was driven by a record breaking, historic SSWE in mid-February; resulted in severe -NAO/-AO blocking and a major arctic outbreak, March’s over the last 10+ years have not been kind to us snow wise. Does that change this March? I have no idea
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I think one thing that will be different in February and is something we haven’t seen all winter long is the SE ridge finally making an appearance. Ever since the cold pattern kicked in the day after Thanksgiving, the SE ridge has been absent. @bluewave has already mentioned it a few times but it does fit February Niña climo as does -PNA
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Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all
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The difference now is that we are about to see both the NAO/AO go very positive. The stratosphere is projected to get record cold and the SPV is going to go on steroids and is going to couple with the troposphere. That coupling is something we haven’t seen thus far. The ++NAO going to allow the SE ridge to really flex, especially with the ridge way off the west coast
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This is a result of the SPV becoming extremely strong and starting to couple with the troposphere. The AO/NAO are both about to go ++
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If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..
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As far as the pattern, this MJO wave is very strong, convection is exploding, you can see it on the satellite views of the IO and AAM is dropping very negative. We are clearly going into a well coupled La Niña state by early February. It’s fitting February La Niña climo perfectly
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And we are about to see a very strong EWB the tail end of this month and continuing into early February
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The ensembles and operationals are all in agreement that we see a big pattern change by the beginning of February. The MJO is going to (finally) constructively interfere with La Niña, it has just entered the IO, confirmed by satellite and the SPV is about to go on steroids (near record strength/record cold stratospheric temps) and couple with the TPV SPV
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The drought from the fall never stopped. We are still officially in a major drought. You’re just not noticing it because it’s the dead of winter
