snowman19

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

“At the end of July 2025, daily sea ice extent in both hemispheres ranked third lowest in the 47-year satellite record. For most of the month, Arctic sea ice extent tracked close to levels recorded for 2012, the record-low-September year. July 2025 ended the month at fourth lowest on record, slightly surpassing July 2012. Although 2012 experienced the lowest September extent in the satellite record, the July 2012 monthly extent was only the fifth lowest. As of early August, the Northern Sea Route is nearly clear of ice, and Amundsen’s Northwest Passage path through the Canadian Archipelago also” Source: https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

I guess the silver lining as we approach the end of arctic sea ice melt season in the next 3 weeks is that although it’s record low, we aren’t as low as the all time record low in 2012: And still all systems go for a solid -IOD event:

Yea, it’s been a +NAO SSTA alignment for months now

Not really a surprise but the tropical Atlantic looks to become a total snooze fest for the next 2+ weeks

Not much change at all in the Atlantic the last month @Stormchaserchuck1….

If 16-17 didn’t see the strong -IOD form, it would have been another +ENSO winter, but much weaker. It still had the lingering +PDO and a strong +AMO. It was supposed to be a -QBO winter, but the super El Niño the winter before f-ed up the atmosphere/QBO progression so much that we went into another +QBO, which was a complete anomaly

To add, the new 30 day QPF from the EPS is very dry for the mid-Atlantic and northeast. IF (if) correct, we will be in drought conditions again….

No Nina’s are not a winter killer even south of New England

IMO, there is a high risk for a dry met fall (SON) again this year. I don’t think we see a record drought like last fall, but I can see us reach drought conditions none the less

No it’s not. In fact, a La Niña Watch was just issued by the CPC/NOAA

As a sweeping generality, -ENSO/-PDO winters tip their hand in November and December….if those 2 months are warmer than normal with below average snow, that usually sets the tone for the remainder of the winter season….the opposite (colder than normal with above average snow) normally also holds true

Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall

The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?

What @BlizzardWx posted yesterday makes the most sense….recurving hurricane/well above normal ACE tropical seasons during -ENSO’s are a symptom of an overall Atlantic background state resulting in -NAO blocked winters…..not the cause of them

Can you narrow it down further to -NAO/-ENSO (La Niña/cold-neutral) winters? The whole theory was based on years with high ACE and recurving hurricanes during -ENSO’s supposedly causing -NAO blocking during winter

There was/is a very questionable theory that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during a -ENSO results in -NAO blocking in winter. I have seen zero hard, convincing evidence that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during -ENSOs (La Nina’s/cold-neutrals) cause -NAO blocking in winter. JB has been the biggest pusher of this unproven theory ever since the 1995-96 winter because of the ‘95 Atlantic hurricane season that preceded it

I’m not saying it CAN’T happen, I’m going with my gut and what has transpired thus far/what is projected to transpire in early-mid September. It is my strong OPINION that this is not going to be an above normal ACE season. Can I be wrong? Sure

I don’t think there will be any debate on that indisputable fact. The question remains, how will this tropical season finish in terms of ACE and named storms, all added up, said and done, on November 30th, which is what really counts. There are signs that at least early-mid September will become quiet again. Despite the current uptick in ACE to this point with Erin, I still have very serious doubts that this 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will end up above normal in ACE or in named storms

Above normal number of storms and above normal ACE

It seems that the musings back in July about the Atlantic SST profile being unfavorable for a big tropical season were correct in spite of a -ENSO. @DonSutherland1 was spot on with his call of a -AAM regime setting up in August as well

The difference between cold-neutral and weak La Niña is negligible. Same atmospheric response. The atmosphere isn’t going to say “I’m going to behave completely different because there’s a technical classification as ‘cold-neutral’ as opposed to ‘weak La Niña’. The classification difference between the two is one degree C

A “La Niña Watch” has been issued by the CPC/NOAA; expecting La Niña conditions come fall into early winter before going back to cold-neutral conditions by late winter into early spring…..