snowman19

The ensembles are starting to hint at a late month retrogression and pattern change

The tropical forcing progression supports the pattern breaking down but after mid-month. The models are likely rushing it. It’s probably more along the lines of the blocking and cold starting to break down around 1/20 or just after

There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast

As soon as I saw Joe Bastardi hyping big east coast snowstorms and blizzards for 1/1 - 1/15 I knew that period was doomed. That guy is the ultimate kiss of death for snow in the east. He curses it every time

This may well be a case of Bernie Rayno’s rule of having to wait until we are on the end/backside of the arctic outbreak before an event happens. 1/1 - 1/15 may well end up dry. It might take until all the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out before something happens. Here’s a good disco:

^New February CANSIPS Expected tropical forcing:

So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave

Obviously not 100% fool proof everytime, but I think the old Bernie Rayno snowstorm rule is pretty accurate. You get snow on either the front side or back side of arctic outbreaks. So it usually either comes immediately following an arctic cold injection as the blocking is setting up or just as the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out. Does that rule work out this time? Who knows

The tail end of the month is when the CFS actually has some validity for the next month. Not saying it’s right but:

Remember when we discussed how the strong trades/EWB’s (shear/subsidence) and colder waters from the La Niña would destructively interfere with the MJO just pushing into phase 8 without any resistance?

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

At least cutters and inland runners won’t be a concern with that blocking. I agree, that we either see a hit or suppressed. All wave spacing and baroclinic zone placement dependent

After a brief lull the first few days of January, the models have another period of very strong trades/EWBs developing. This is definitely going to be record strengthening into January, even for a late bloomer La Niña event, it’s been extremely impressive since November

Bernie Rayno is correct IMO. There is going to be one storm between 1/6 - 1/10. You aren’t getting both due to wave spacing and baroclinic zone movement. Whether or not we actually cash in remains to be seen but I sell a cutter. I sell that all day like it’s on fire. We aren’t getting a cutter with that blocking. It’s either a storm, intensity tbd or no storm/suppressed, sheared out. That’s the threat

I agree with you. Not even worth discussing the details of operational runs 11+ days out. It’s all going to change, hugely. Once past day 10, that’s not even the op Euro still, it’s the Euro control run that they integrated into it past 240 hours.

^As an example, here are the Euro weeklies for late January/early February upper level maps vs. the 2m surface temp maps @mitchnick shared:

If the level of unmodified arctic being predicted in Canada and the CONUS for early-mid January is close to reality, even if the pattern completely flips in late January, it’s going to take some time to scour it all out. Just like if we were flooded with mild PAC air, it would take some time to get it all out before it would truly turn colder. It would not just be an instant light switch flip either way to warmer or colder

Yea, this is where the lack of a juiced southern stream hurts if you are looking for phased KU’s barreling up the coast. That’s one big ingredient that will be missing. The upcoming pattern is all northern stream driven, typical -ENSO

The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking

What is a strong Nina lag? I’m not following

I mean it’s kind of hard to go February, 2018 style torch since that month saw NYC hit 80 degrees lol Yea, that’s probably not happening. One thing I’m confident in is that the pattern after 1/20 is very likely NOT to look like the pattern from 1/1 - 1/20 despite the nonsense arrogant BAMWX is supposedly feeding their paid subscribers about the pattern “locking in” through February. IMO, that idea is going to go down in flames

EMI aside, for argument’s sake let’s say it’s a basin-wide event, which it isn’t….it’s looking more likely by the day that we see a canonical pattern. -AAM, Nina metrics all jiving now. And if the MJO projections are correct, after 1/20 or so, it goes into IO and Maritime Continent phases, which will constructively interfere

Late bloomer Modoki La Niña….record, sustained strengthening on all metrics….big AAM drop projected….evidence really mounting for a canonical response late January and February