snowman19

The GFS is making the same mistake as the RGEM with the midlevel warm nose. Look at the GFS soundings, those thicknesses and midlevel temps = sleet, not snow. It’s showing all snow when it should be showing sleet. So the 10:1 snow ratio maps are getting inflated. It has a sleet sounding, yet it’s showing all snow. And using the HRRR at this range is definitely not advisable at all. It’s nowhere near its accurate range

I wonder what the bias-corrected EPS is showing. @purduewx80 any idea? I don’t have the link to that

@MJO812 @Allsnow I never doubted a stretching/wave reflection event. That wasn’t my argument. My point is that the models have completely lost the major SSWE and subsequent SPV split they were showing, which have tremendous staying power….30-60 days like March and April, 2018. All of March and April had strong high latitude blocking and cold and it didn’t finally breakdown until the beginning of May that year. Wave reflection/stretching events have a limited amount of time for their effects and last nowhere near as long as a major SSWE with a split do. @bluewave has made this point a few times

^This. With those soundings, it’s going to be sleet not all snow like the RGEM is showing, not with those midlevel temps and thicknesses. No way in hell would it be all snow. Plus, when there’s a strong warm nose event like this one is going to be, the models always underestimate the midlevel warmth at this range. Wouldn’t surprise me if this is a quick transition to sleet after a quick 1/2 inch to an inch of snow

I never said it means warmth and it’s going to get very cold and blocking is going to develop. I’d have to be an idiot to deny that fact. However, it does mean that the blocking and cold is not going to lock in for a month or two like it may have, had we had a major SSWE and subsequent SPV split, i.e. March/April 2018

@Allsnow

You beat me to it. This looks like it’s going to be a very big fail for those on twitter who have been hyping and basically guaranteeing a February, 2018 SSWE redux the last week. A major SSWE and SPV split is starting to look extremely unlikely. Jason Furtado nailed this happening last week:

The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

The HRRR has been very consistent run after run today that Connecticut is the sweet spot for tonight. It’s actually been cutting down amounts west and south of where the advisory is. I think it’s probably less than an inch south and west of the advisory area. The HRDPS is showing the exact same thing as the HRRR and has also been very consistent for many runs now HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 HRDPS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

@donsutherland1just posted in the NYC forum about this. The NAO forecasts aren’t matching up, like not even close

I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app

Saw that. Let’s see if it holds. As far as this week and next weekend, I think those end up mostly New England events. I think the pattern is not favorable for snowstorms here during that time frame. Not sure about the following week though

It’s kind of weird how Dr. Amy Butler, Judah Cohen and Jason Furtado are not hyping this up at all. Haven’t heard anything about HM getting on board for a big SSWE either. If this was imminent, you’d think one of them would be talking about it right now. We’ll see I guess

Maybe, but the brand new runs of the NMME, CFS and CANSIPS are showing what the GEFS EXT does. All we can do is wait and see

@Allsnow Edit: That’s a real account. I double checked the CFS/GEFS EXT/CANSIPS/NMME….that’s exactly what those new runs are showing for February. The EPS and GEFS are at odds of what the MJO is going to do. They are actually world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

@donsutherland1 Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@Allsnow Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@bluewave The GEFS and EPS are world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

Maybe, yes, but a February, 2018 SSWE redux? Lol I wish twitter and facebook lots of luck with that one, I think they’re going to need it…..

@CoastalWx You must be enjoying all of the out of control SSWE voodoo hype all over twitter and facebook right now. Spreading like wildfire. An exact replica/redux of February, 2018 is locked in and on the way lol

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Imagine if I posted a 222 hour operational model run on here showing a torch lol