snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I don’t care what it sees in day to day noise. I’m talking about the overall stratospheric picture going into November here, there is an absence of upward wave fluxes causing warmings and there is zero evidence of any top-down warmings coming. Given those facts, if that’s correct, and it appears to be, the SPV is going to cool and strengthen
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Day to day SPV forecast changes aside, I’m not seeing a mechanism (yet) that will force the SPV to stay weak next month Side note: @Bluewave The impressive +SOI run continues, and some MJO musings:
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Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle
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No, it can stay weak
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All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now
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The models have gone from showing a true coastal storm/nor’easter to an inland runner/cutter
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It’s looking like this MJO wave completely dies in phase 6/7 then re-emerges back in the IO with another big drop in the AAM. SPV also looks to strengthen
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@40/70 Benchmark The SOI is soaring again…almost +25. I like your new ENSO disco, I really think we see some Niña strengthening in both the subsurface and surface next month
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The AMO never went negative this summer. More ridiculous hype and clickbait for subscription money from those clowns. Nice New Foundland warm pool too, which is actually supportive of -NAO’s linking up with the WAR/SE ridge @donsutherland1
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If the MJO fails to propagate past phase 6/7 and ends up re-emerging back in the IO, which some models are showing now, then another run of strong -AAM becomes a very distinct possibility once we get into November
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Looks like the new CFS CHI200 forecast gets the MJO as far as phase 6/7 before it fades then re-emerges it right back into the IO and starts propagating it eastward again. @bluewave I’m starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another winter of MJO waves hitting a brick wall in phase 6/7….
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I remember several years back when the record low arctic sea ice regime first started. The hype was out of control that the open waters were going to add evaporative moisture and cause all time record snowcover to build up in the arctic and result in a strongly negative AO. That theory ended up being a real massive bust and many pro mets bought into it hook, line and sinker and used it to predict a big winter that fall
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For those who track the Siberian snowcover advance in October; “SAI index” (I don’t because I think it doesn’t have a good track record at all), but here is the new update from Judah Cohen….lots of bad, false info going around X right now, mostly thanks to Mark Margavage, who just the other day said it’s advancing at an all time record level
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Perfectly normal “behavior” for every IOD cycle, positive or negative. They peak in Northern Hemisphere fall (usually October) then start to rise/fall and neutralize in winter. This is the strongest negative event in over 17 years
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Agree with your take. Given the very strong -IOD, I would not write off some additional Niña strengthening come November with the constructive interference it provides
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@Gawx Sunspot average for October is 125. While an obvious downtrend from last year’s solar max, solar and geomag activity remain high
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This -IOD is the strongest on BOM’s weekly records, which began back in 2008…. @40/70 Benchmark
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Where that cooling is taking place along the west coast of North America, off Baja and up into the GOA with the warmth under the Aleutians is reminiscent of a -PDO “cold horseshoe” something we haven’t seen in quite awhile
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The million dollar question….does it actually make it into the PAC or does it die out in phases 6/7 and end up back in the IO? The end of month propagation to the Maritime Continent (finally) looks like a certainty now but the MJO has been exhibiting very erratic behavior for the past few months now with barely any eastward movement before it circles right back to the IO
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I don’t expect a 2022-23 deep RNA either but more -PNA than last winter? Absolutely
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I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time
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That New Foundland warm pool makes me suspect we are going to see the infamous -NAO linkage with the WAR/SE ridge
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This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks
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Did you read the part where I said that things DO match up with last year at the beginning of my post?? All I did was point out that the AAM is different. Geez Louise
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It’s starting to look like the MJO wave isn’t going to make it past phase 6/7 (MC) before it hits strong subsidence, dies and ends up back in the IO again. That will likely result in yet another big drop in an already persistently negative AAM. As much as some things match up, at least as far as the AAM goes, this fall has been world’s apart from last year….
