snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern
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The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October
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There are none. That’s why I don’t like using them
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I have no doubt that the SPV will be weaker this winter than 13-14 was. That was the most positive AO and NAO in history
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That winter was also raging positive QBO
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They are hyping for likes, follows, clout, retweets and views, as per usual. If just the NE PAC was warm and it was cold in the western North PAC around Japan (2013/2014) then yes that would be a +PDO alignment and would have that correlation. We don’t have that
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Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions
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If we do in fact end up below 100 ACE, I think we need to seriously reconsider the 3 main factors the majority of people use for tropical seasonal forecasts…..ENSO state, MDR SSTs and the overall AMO state
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If we finish this season below 100 ACE I for one will not be the least bit surprised
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Soil moisture very low across the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
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@stormchaserchuck1 Your speculation on the -PDO/-ENSO link that late September and October would turn warm appears to be coming to fruition. It also looks like a continued dry pattern for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
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The time has come to admit that this is not going to be a hyperactive (ACE/named storms) Atlantic tropical season. The ship has sailed folks
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Looks like the Niña/-IOD standing wave has set up
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Correct
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The current SSTs in the WPAC match several other years that went on to see +WPO winters
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Yes, that was a big part of HM’s disco on this topic (-QBO/-ENSO resulting in a flat Aleutian ridge and +QBO/-ENSO resulting in a poleward Aleutian high). He actually went into a very detailed disco with a bunch of images in his blog. Shame I can’t find it anymore to share on here
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The last true DC-PHL-NYC-BOS corridor KU snowstorms were back in February, 2021. It shutdown at the end of that month, never to be heard from again
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This was mentioned extensively last fall….the research showing that +QBO/-ENSO causes a more poleward Aleutian High, while -QBO/-ENSO causes a more flattened, equatorial Aleutian Ridge. HM had a blog on this many years ago, which unfortunately I can’t find the link to anymore. IF this research is correct, then we will see it come “cold season” (Nov-Mar).
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The east coast, from the mid-atlantic up to the northeast is very quickly going into full on drought conditions again. Been dry as hell since August 1st. Shades of last fall
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The bizarre MJO behavior continues
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Unlike last year when we were in a +AAM regime, this year we are and have been in a strong -AAM, so definitely much more Niña like in that respect @so_whats_happening Australia’s BOM has changed its parameters for La Niña classification:
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@bluewave @donsutherland1 Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime
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Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts….
