snowman19

I stand corrected, it was Nina/+QBO/low solar, so the 3rd most likely to produce a SSW and or blocking….Nino/-QBO/low solar being the most likely and Nina/+QBO/high solar being the least likely

You beat me to it lol yea, that winter had the weaker -PDO and low solar, it also did not have the inferno New Foundland warm pool to go along with the +AMO. I believe it may have been -QBO too?, don’t have the time to look it up right now though

Completely agree. In this current climate, weak La Niña no longer = cold and snowy. I have no doubt that even if the ONI stays weak, this La Niña is going to atmospherically behave MUCH stronger. I know Ray agrees too

Shades of last year….later peak. The longer it takes to “get going” the later the oceanic peak. As we’ve discussed many times and @bluewave has posted, the atmosphere is leading the ONI. We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

Yep and a very strong -PDO

Absolutely no signs whatsoever of the strong -PDO going anywhere despite what JB may be saying. Also no signs of this elusive east-based La Niña that apparently only exists on twitter since none of the models are showing one or ever did

Correct. Hybrid or whatever you want to call it. It’s just continuing the trend like all of the other models of NOT showing an east-based La Niña. In fact, at no point since the spring did any models show that. Which is why I’m mystified by the east-based Niña talk on Twitter. Maybe there’s some secret model that none of us know about showing an east-based La Niña? If there is, it must use the same algorithm as the Wxbell CFS that shows a +PDO….

Nice anti-log find. Talk about total polar opposites of this year. Besides PDO, ENSO, QBO, solar, AMO, those years (76-77, 86-87) were also +PMM. Literally every signal is opposite to this year

16-17 is good as far as the ENSO evolution and the +QBO, but like you said the PDO doesn’t match, neither does solar or AMO

95-96 is the worst “analog” you could possibly use for this winter. Totally laughable. It figures JB is using it, I would expect no less from that clown

Agree about 07-08, very decent match, I know Ray agrees. However, I think 16-17 is also a good ENSO match. I didn’t realize how close 16-17 was as well until @bluewave made that post about it this morning

I don’t think winter forecasts should be put out until November. That said, as of right now, just looking at ENSO, 16-17 and 07-08 seem to be good matches

16-17 and 07-08 are starting to look good matches for this Niña

Nice comparison. It actually is developing very similar to 2007. Real close. Which was NOT an east-based La Niña. It also looks nothing at all like 2017. Not sure where these twitter proclamations are coming from that this one is developing as an east-based event

I think we can put the La Nada/neutral fantasies away. There’s going to be a La Niña, the only question now is how strong?

This is why winter forecasts keep busting year after year, over and over. Certain folks never, ever learn. We are not seeing the same climate we did back in the 50’s-early 2000’s. Even the 2010’s. Yet every year, we see people using old analogs, expecting the current winter to do the same thing, then being shocked when they completely fail. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, we need to see full scale, major changes in the PAC, Atlantic and background forcing. Until then it’s more of the same, minus a very lucky temporary, transient month of favorable (i.e. February, 2021). Nothing at all has changed as you just showed and until it does, it’s wash, rinse, repeat. An example right now on twitter is how we are seeing people hyping that this La Niña is developing just like 2017, which was a classic east-based event, started as one, ended as one. All you have to do is compare how this Niña is developing with 2017. It’s not even close. Wishcasting it won’t make it happen, which is my issue. It’s the same cast of characters using the same cold and snowy analogs (95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18) everytime there’s a La Niña, and saying that this year is a carbon copy, just like they do with the analogs everytime there’s an El Niño (57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10). You can’t will it to happen. I’m sure the same people undoubtedly will go cold and snowy this year too, as they always do. Adjust and adapt. Madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result…..

I do. I like all weather. Where my beef has always been is people who blindly forecast cold and snow with no reasoning behind it but wish casting, then get nasty about it. It became tiring to watch for me. I felt as though it was making of mockery of meteorology. Instead of wanting to be right and discussing the how’s and why’s of seasonal forecasting and mesoscale snowstorm/cold forecasting, it became a matter of “if I forecast it, it will happen, I’ll will it to happen”. And if you disagree with me I’ll say you’re wrong and get nasty

Yep. Early-mid November, 2011 actually didn’t look too bad, it looked like that winter could have gone either way. Then a few days after Thanksgiving, the vortex appeared and it was lights out, say good night and goodbye right through spring. The only other total shut out winter in recent memory was 01-02, possibly even worse. There was a relentless high solar flux from September till the end of March. Not only was it a wall to wall torch-a-rama, it was dry as a bone

11-12 was more Bering Sea vortex/+EPO driven. A few days after Thanksgiving that massive Bering Sea vortex developed, became a semipermanent feature for months on end, the EPO floodgates opened and that winter was toast. NYC hit 90 degrees in March, right after St. Patrick’s Day. Earliest I can ever remember having to turn the air conditioner on

The mid-December, 2019 snowstorm was it for my area that winter. One and done. I remember BAMWX being one of the first to call their winter forecast a bust and said that winter was toast when it was apparent that the SPV was going into beast mode right after Christmas. The IOD overwhelmed everything. Of course JB was the last to admit defeat and kept hyping for months that deep winter was right around the corner…..

The thing I remember most about the 19-20 winter was all the big cold/snowy east coast forecasts that came out in the fall because of the model runs that were showing blocking, which turned out to be a huge fail. The forcing from the ++IOD and 90+ SSTs north of Australia put the SPV on steroids come the end of December, winter ended and that was all she wrote. Isotherm nailed that debacle months before it happened

This is true. The Hunga eruption is still being widely studied because nothing like that (extreme amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere) has happened before. Actual long term effects unknown. Then we also had the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang eruptions back in April, which also reached the stratosphere. What role does that play? It’s obviously not going to have the “Pinatubo” effect, but I would think that a cumulative VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruption that reached the stratosphere would have *some* effect….what that effect actually is TBD