snowman19

After what the GFS/GEFS just did this past weekend I give its solutions zero consideration. I don’t care if it shows a raging cutter or a blizzard. It’s a horrific model. Even the CMC/GEPS schooled it

QPF from late November till now has been well below average. We are still solidly in drought conditions. And it is absolutely possible that next week ends up suppressed with fast flow again. Since November, there has been a total lack of West Atlantic storm traffic to jam the flow up and slow it down, everything just races off the coast with no mechanism to bring it up here. “Contentweatherguy” has been spot on with this all winter long

Good lord yes I was wrong about the warmth. Happy? Now admit that you have been dead wrong about all the snowstorms you’ve been predicting since the end of November up until today @MJO812 Of course you won’t admit how badly you’ve busted on the snow. Not surprised

One of the few times I’ve ever seen him accurately predict something was when he forecasted warmth. The last time I can remember him insisting on the pattern turning warm was January of 2011. He told everyone over and over that all the blocking was going to fall apart at the end of the month and winter was going to end at the beginning of February and not come back again. The weenies wanted to kill him and he ended up being right

It looks very cold no doubt, however, his target period of 1/1 - 1/15 was completely wrong. He will never admit it though. He will simply say “delayed but not denied” take credit for being the 1st one to see it and move on like it never even happened. If someone else had predicted warmth for that period and busted, he’d be the 1st one to put them on blast and troll them

@Allsnow When is the inevitable “Buckle up!!” tweet coming??

Not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi’s 1/1 - 1/15 record/historic arctic cold snow blitz for NYC hype is going to be a huge fail. And of course no tweets about his upcoming bust

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

My confidence is increasing in a canonical La Niña pattern coming up:

If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming

Buckle up!

Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later

Just said it before in the Niña thread, but the 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge is completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature is showing up

Definitely. Late bloomer (NDJ) and a Modoki/CP La Niña at that

The 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature showing up

We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1

I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby

@donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive

I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO

IMO Saturday morning is a dusting/coating to maybe an inch which would be the ceiling and not widespread, isolated areas. It’s looking like just a period of steady snow showers passing through

Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo @Allsnow In all seriousness I wholeheartedly believe we go RNA. Forcing is going into the IO. You can hold me to it

Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop

UKIE: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Yea, -EPO driven. Besides the RNA, also looks like a flip to -AAM and a strong SPV/+AO