snowman19

NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069 Sunday Night Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches.

Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point

I was because of that one burp, rouge 6z EURO run but since then I’ve altered my view. I never for one second believed that rain was on the table. It was either a hit or east/OTS and a minor event in my mind. I’m thinking 2-3, 2-4, which I’m sure none of you will be upset about given how this has gone since November here Edit: @Allsnow EPS hasn’t budged one iota. Mean: 2-3 inches area wide

I’m going down with this ship. The EURO/EPS is not going to be off by over 100 miles with less than 3 days to go. I’m sorry

Minor minuscule windshield wiper effect changes on the EURO/EPS for run after run. Despite the little changes, it’s been basically 2-3 inches area wide the entire time

Call me crazy and you guys can rip me apart for it if I’m wrong, but I’m not betting against the EURO and EPS this close in

I don’t give a hoot how “consistent” the RGEM, CMC and the Garbage Forecasting System are, they are way too far west IMO. They can absolutely be consistently wrong. It’s possible even the UKMET and ICON are a bit too far west. The regular 12K NAM is probably out to lunch based on what the 3K just did

It’s a battle between the EPS and the GEPS/GEFS now. The EPS wants to squash the SE ridge and has a weaker -PNA. The GEPS/GEFS want to really tank the PNA and pump the SE ridge

The new EPS mean is 2-3 inches area wide. Even if that turns out to be correct, I don’t think anyone would be complaining

IMO if this busts it busts OTS and doesn’t become an inland runner. I think rain is off the table, I hate to disagree with Forky and Bluewave but I think it’s either a big snowstorm or a minor 1-2, 1-3 event as the options

That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out

The NAM could tell me the sky is blue and water is wet and I wouldn’t believe it. It’s as eternally bad as the GFS, they both haven’t a clue. It’s obvious where this is heading, it’s going to be a major event Sunday, wouldn’t surprise me if this is an 8-12 inch storm. The CMC/RGEM appears to have schooled the EURO on this one, it’s playing catchup like the ICON. My guess is that the UKMET is the next one to show a big hit

Good God the GFS sucks. Worst model in the history of mankind. Like seriously not even worth looking at it anymore. Frigging awful

I can’t remember the last time the GFS actually scored a coup inside of 4 days but boy is it insistent on Sunday being a complete non event run after run

It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one

That’s a ludicrous solution. Throw it right in the trash. We aren’t getting rain for that wave. It’s either a minor snow event or nada/OTS. That’s the CMC being way too amped again

We are still officially in a solid drought. The only reason why it’s not noticeable right now is because it’s the dead of winter. If it continues into spring we will have problems, huge problems

@brooklynwx99 Would WAR be better than SE ridge then? Also, the models are retrograding the AK ridge out to the Aleutians, is that still a -EPO? @MJO812 @40/70 Benchmark Looks like your thoughts on February going canonical La Niña have merit. EPS, GEFS and GEPS all still on board for a big -PNA/SE ridge response in the final days of this month going into February. The EPS, GEPS and GEFS are retrograding the ridge from AK to the Aleutians. Here’s the new EPS animation:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

Not sure about SEA but I remember the high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking started to break down in late January, 2011. Then at the start of February it went full blown canonical Niña with a big -PNA/Aleutian ridge/SE ridge and all the blocking was totally gone. It followed a typical “front loaded” cold late Nov - late Jan Niña climo winter in the east though

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

2010-11 ended up being a way better analog than I thought. Credit to the guys who mentioned it as an analog. This Niña is behaving like a classic front end loaded event. Cold in the east from late November to late January. The EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all showing a shift to a canonical La Niña (-PNA/SE ridge/retro to Aleutian ridge) pattern in the final days of this month/start of February. You can see hints of the AK ridge retrograding from AK towards the Aleutians at the end of those ensemble runs. Very strong EWB coming up, along with -AAM, jet retraction and an amplified MJO wave propagating from the IO to the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Niña. Fits Niña climo perfectly. Here are the overnight GEPS, EPS runs. The GEFS is showing the same thing:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Big -PNA signal starting to show up on the ensembles for the tail end of this month

I thought it was the GEFS. My fault