snowman19
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The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate
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We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode
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Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4
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As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month
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New NWS forecast: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
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Ok
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I’m as confused as you
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Noise. Nothing has changed since yesterday, very good model consensus (minus the awful NAM) on less than an inch for NYC and 1-2 for the NW suburbs, with the 2 inch amounts being up towards Orange, Passaic, Sussex. @donsutherland1
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The NAM should have been discontinued years ago. I can’t believe NWS still bothers using it, it’s horrendous and hasn’t been updated in years. It’s as outdated and embarrassing as the NOGAPS
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IMO we go -PNA next month. The big La Niña push we’ve been seeing with the forcing/standing wave/MJO/trades/SOI is not going to be denied. And it’s taking on a very Modoki signature
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All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night
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The amount of clowns on twitter saying there’s going to be a Norlun trough in NYC and NJ right now is comical
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Remember how bad the EPS was last winter when it kept incorrectly killing off the Maritime Continent convection?
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IMO, this is a meh at best, less than an inch of snow “event” Friday night. Glorified snow showers. The 0z runs trended less impressive if anything. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the models take another step back on today’s runs
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Agreed. There is very clearly a La Niña standing wave there. Some people have no idea what they’re talking about. You don’t have Maritime Continent convection firing while in a true MJO phase 8. And the new GEPS is already showing a -PNA at the beginning of January
