Metasequoia

What percent of this forum lives in the City or on Long Island? I think it must be a significant majority. So, that's why the focus is on the City and the coast... Also, I suspect most people in the City rarely leave the boroughs, so the north isn't on their minds. I never go north of the UWS...born in Schenectady though. Plus many people in this forum predominantly pay attention to their backyard (northern folks) or front stoop (MJO). Many Cityfolk want northern folk to get crushed by snow, but care more about the City. Seems reasonable to me. At least the north doesn't get screwed over so much by latitude, warm water, and concrete... take the win even of this forum doesn't focus on it as much. Also, I agree, people in this forum should consider moving 20 miles north instead of to SNE. Makes more sense.

It's shifted north for each of the last four runs. Only room for a couple more ticks north until it's mood flakes for the City.

We haven't been NAMed yet...

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro EPS looks like. I suspect this might bring people back from the ledges... for good or bad.

Seems like now would have been a good time to start tracking. A few days out, still lots of variability amongst models, but general agreement on some basics such as timing, duration, etc.

FWIW

Remind me, you like to see 700mb at least at -10?

The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models.

Differences between 6Z and 12Z GFS runs aren't that much and could be model noise four days out. Bigger change is at 500 mb which doesn't look worse to my untrained eyes.

Any mets want to weigh-in on what weather models should be used to forecast inverted troughs 24 hours before start time?

Recent NBM, provided by NE folks.

Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.

Thanks. Unrealistic 10 to 1 ratios, but still nice to have something to track.

Has the NAM received an upgrade since last Winter? If not, I think we have plenty of reason to be skeptical about its outputs.

Fran in 1996 was a bruiser for Raleigh Durham. Widespread power outages and blocked roads for over a week.

FWIW - the 18Z 3K NAM looks much better than the 12K and not much different than 12Z.

The model run to run consistency is pretty bad. I agree with Rjay that we still don't have a good handle on this storm. The setup looks sensitive to modest changes. I could see the Euro swinging heavy snow back into the City on the next run.

Would a met or someone that knows their stuff provide some guidance on using ensembles near the start of a storm? How useful are they at this point?

The three best models showing significant impacts tonight would be quite welcome. Let's see. Euro has has decent runs as of late...

Now this is finally getting interesting for NYC.

Nam not so different from the GFS...in tuck and snowfall outputs. So maybe it's the Americans vs. the world. Euro can be the tie breaker.

Tropical Tidbits has issues with depicting snow accumulations for Long Island and parts of the City. I think this partly explains the difference between the two maps.

Where can I sign? Looks great...perhaps the boundary layer doesn't support these accumulations?

I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers.