EastonSN+

It could be an over-correction however we have to watch that kicker out west it was further east this run.

It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year.

Amendment. EURO is now the southeast outlier. Wish it was any other model. Still gives 1 to 3.

Kicker Storm out West was a bit east.

Seems the Storm out West was a little further east and perhaps kicked it out before it could gain latitude.

Looks like the kicker out west pushed it out before it could climb. However it did keep with the winter theme of a light event here and the Delmarva and Virginia getting crushed.

It's great that all the models give snow at this point. UKMET is now the most tucked with the GFS the most progressive. AI moved West which was great however the CMC moved closer to the GFS however is still a good 6 to 12 hit. Still 5 days out however we are seeing the goal posts here. If you take out the outliers of the UKMET and the AI we have at minimum a 6 to 12 inches event as it looks at this time. Probably more like 8 to 14. Love to see a megalopolis storm has been a while.

How does the gefs look? Did it move west a little?

Hoping some of us can pad our stats. Not looking great for Central Park however hopefully a half inch to an inch.

Thanks. That's crazy for 09/10.

Sorry to bother Don, however has there ever been a year with 2 -4SD AOs in the same winter season? If so in back to back months? We seem to be seeing a lot of strong -AOs lately. Thanks

GEFS took a step back. On to 0z.

Maybe the SE ridge was not as strong on this model suite?

Technically I live in New England so I'm safe.

The NAM showed nothing for the last event as well And the NWS didn't buy it.

Yeah those who just lived through 2000 onwards I can see panic. Otherwise we see how much of any we shave off of the 1970 to 1999 average.

I think the NWS snowfall map is spot on, pretty much aligns with the EURO.

Was the 6z EPS posted?

I think more analysis is needed as we thought that Indonesian Waters would create a semi-permanent 456 mjo which for some reason has not been the case at all. Heck even the southeast ridge linking to the nao per Don has increased in frequency but has also occurred in the past per his stats. We do not know how much variability there is since the sample size is small. Not saying the above are not true however literally just 6 years from an epic period is not time to state that everything has changed and nothing is going to go back. I might as well put this in here again does anybody know why the rising Indian ocean temperatures are not discussed if the Indonesian water temperatures rising causes such an effect on our weather?

I think bringing up the deep South is valid in a sense that it keeps everything in perspective. Warming is a slow process, it does not mean uh-oh our Winters are over and we will never have a 95/96 again. Some posts make readers believe that it's all over it's too warm. I get it some want to raise an alarm to wake up some people however a true poster will explain it in more detail. Therefore even though it's warmer now we can still get snow even historic snow and warm places like the Gulf. The snowfall average will inevitably start to drop however you're probably looking at 2 to 4 inches off the average per decade rather than cut in half. We are not even definitively sure if this has started already as we are not far off from the 1970 through 1999 average. If we get a big snow storm this week we're probably going to be close to in line.

And this is likely the reason we have these long extended multi-decade periods where it seems everything goes wrong for snow events here and the Mid-Atlantic usually scores as well as the mountains of New England. This will work again down the road however how many of us will still be around LOL

Would be interesting to see as that period mirrored 2000 to 2018 which were dominated by KU events. From a large scale perspective I don't think we can compare to those Winters.

In the changing climate you have to move to the Delmarva or Florida to get snow.

Brooklyn WX explained before that it was not a Southeast ridge flex but rather an amplifying system. So we have two opinions on this phenomenon. I wish another red tagger would weigh in.

The lack of an nao I believe is to blame. This leaves room for a storm to go into the apps. However the strength of the AO kept it from going into Canada and well redevelop East. If the nao was negative there would be no chance of it cutting.