EastonSN+

My sister lives in Cary NC moved to get away from cold and snow like most people, however this is their 3rd event this season and they are enjoying as it's unique and not a typical year.

4th snowiest February on record in Norfolk. Absolutely insane winter for the South, southeast and Delmarva. Decent event for Raleigh.

Raleigh is getting it good today too. Great year for the South. Poor DC is just to far north these days.

Ocean City Maryland with yet another 3 to 5 inches. Amazing.

So far the 30 yr avg 1970 through 1999 is 21.907 (14 of those years below 19 inches) compared to 18/19 through this year of 15.38. could be more extreme waiting to similar yearly average but we shall see.

Also what happened between 69 and 70 which was the same exact light switch from epic periods to horrid snowfall periods.

They're not hostile to snow storms however they are not phase 8 which is where our KU events are usually born from.

2015 was more that the national weather service did not change their forecast until the storm was underway. Only the nam and the euro had the storm with us in the bullseye up until the last day. All other models had the bullseye in Eastern New England. In that event half the people were convinced by the Euro and Nam while the others were for all the rest of the models. The fact that the Euro and the nam were on their own was a huge red flag.

I have been wondering how the rising Indian ocean temperatures will offset other rising ocean temperatures as the Indian Ocean houses phases one and two which are cold phases for our area. Obviously if the waters off Japan continue unabated and are attributing to the faster jet our storm track will be in Jeopardy, however, purely from a temperature average perspective the rising Indian Ocean temps should offset the warmer phases impacted by the Indonesian water temperatures.

I have been tracking Central Parks snowfall total starting with the 2018-2019 season and comparing it to the 30-year Central Park snowfall drought average from 1970 through 1999 which was a little over 21 inches. Central Park is currently a little over 15 inches for this period, however, the 1970s had very low snowfall for Central Park outside of 2 years towards the end of the decade. This snowfall drought for Central Park can last a lot longer, however I agree by the early 2030s if we're seeing the same thing over and over again then we have to consider. In that 30-year time span Central Park had only five above average snowfall seasons, and 14 of them were below 19 inches. Central Park already had one above average snowfall season in this period so on track in that regard. If we get another 1978 type snowfall distribution then the average will be comparable.

Or the screaming warm Indian Ocean which has phases 1 and 2 of the mjo which are cold. Doesn't seem to be talked about or acknowledged for some reason.

Correct it's dry but unfortunately cold when we want to warm up right.

The EPO won't go away

Where have you been.

Just for fun the 3K nam came Northwest a lot from 6z. Gets a little snow to Long Island.

Thanks as always @The 4 Seasons If there was one enhancement to your site that I would love to see are radar loops for the past storms. Perhaps a bit too ambitious however great to relive.

From MA forum found hilarious for comic relief from this miss. Was a response to a 6z AI post for reference.

You can't assume that this is the case as it's not definitive yet. We could very well go back to a favorable pattern in the pack however a degree or two warmer than today. So instead of getting 25 in snow you'll get 26 or 27 and snow.

Yeah I am thinking the North Pole has a much greater positive temperature departure due to more land masses which would have more population centers creating heat than the southern hemisphere. That of course Plus all that ice down there where the North Pole is losing ice and has less land mass to house snow.

This may be an easy question but why the North Pole has such a high positive temperature departure compared to the South Pole which looks neutral. Easy answers would be more land mass in the northern hemisphere as well as more ice and snow and landmass in the South Pole while the North Pole eyes is melting. However the answer may not be that simple.

Great post by Benchmark.

Even with a cold air source that is inside the benchmark so Long Island coastal New Jersey and the City would likely be mostly rain. However could have been decent for inland areas although a fast mover.

Overall I would grade this winter a c-. Normally I would grade a winter with only 50% of average snowfall as a d, however, constant snow coverage which I still have as well as multiple events to track bumps up to a c-.

Yeah but at least there was a decent amount of doubt as all but two models showed Eastern New England getting the storm so It wasn't a total complete shock when it came in the last minute. Looking in retrospect we should have been going with all the other models as only two showed us in the bullseye. What made that one hard to swallow was the media and the national weather service going with the euro.

Another issue was the lack of a negative AO for the past event. This in addition to the AO being further north allowing the past storm to move west of us.