Okay I am not a met, however, wouldn't the decaying blocking in the AO and nao regions allow this to nudge a little North?
Forky mentioned that our storm would happen as the block decays.
This aligns more closely with the 1970s which were cold and relatively dry. 1980s were split and volatile where we had very very warm periods Mixed in with the cold.
The CMC gets the South Coast with accumulation and with an intense low off of Southern Delmarva. Did not explode up the coast however a few more miles in southern Connecticut can get a light to moderate event. Somewhat of a middle ground.
I would rather it showing a hugger now than just off the coast. Room to work with I don't think it could go that much further inland. If the CMC and Euro were right on the coast then I would worry.