EastonSN+

12z 6z In my opinion this is an improvement.

Interesting development on the 12z GFS and CMC. Both models suits now have a great lakes low much further south than last runs. Wouldn't take much to get further south. Instead of one low with the precipitation going in the Canada, the initial wave in Canada is much weaker and the follow-up wave stronger. Next runs will be very interesting.

Good morning Don, a bit OT however did a research on how many one foot plus snow storms occurred in the last four periods. Interesting to see the comparison between 1955 and 1969 vs 2000 and 2018. Also 1970 through 1999 compared to the current period: 1955 through 1969 - 8 in 15 seasons. 1970 through 1999 - 6 in 30 seasons. 2000 through 2018 - 10 in 18 seasons. 2019 through 2025 - 1 in 6 seasons. Seems to be alternating regarding foot plus storms since 1955.

Open question to the audience, if anybody knows, what is the catalyst for a negative EPO? It seems no matter what the phase is of the mjo, the negative EPO either stays or rebuilds immediately. I have heard the chicken or egg argument where it's either the -EPO warms the waters off the West Coast versus the warm Waters off the West Coast creates the negative EPO. Whatever it is, all year the EPO has been predominantly negative.

Will be interesting to see how much influence the mjo has in February and what if any factors counter the warm phases. We also have to factor in the delayed response.

I posted the long range Mjo plot a little while ago. What's odd is a short-term plot has us going into phase 2 and phase 3 within 15 days but the long-term plot seems to delay until mid-February. I believe the long range guidance (weeklies) keeps trying to default to a Nina pattern the same way 2019 2020 kept defaulting to a nino pattern and a great look that never materialized.

Really the 1970s was frigid. The 80s were mixed as there were very very warm periods Mixed in and the 90s were warm.

The monthly yearly snowfall for cpk can be found here..... https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Perhaps we do not reach phase 3 until mid-February?

My mistake I should have put Easton Connecticut not Eastern Connecticut LOL

Yeah looking at the mjo plots it's apparent we're going into the warmer phases after phase 3. However, we can hopefully emerge into a colder phase later in the season perhaps late February into March.

It wouldn't take much to outperform the 70s 80s and 90s with regards to average snowfall as all three decades were around 20 inches. Agreed we will have a huge drop from the 2000s and the 2010s as they were historically high and snowfall and of course matched the 1955 through 1969 period. All it takes is one higher than average snowfall season to greatly affect the decades average and we've already had one above average snowfall season. Look at the 1990s, if you take 95/96 and convert that to 28 inch average season, suddenly the average for that decade is extremely low. The point being is we have a few years left this decade and there's no reason at all to think we cannot get a major snowfall season.

Still snowing lightly, now up to 1.25 inches. 3.25 so far on the season for Easton Connecticut.

Still snowing lightly, now up to 1.25 inches. 3.25 so far on the season for Easton Connecticut.

Pleasant surprise, 1.1 inches in Easton CT. 3.1 on the year.

Pleasant surprise, 1.1 inches. 3.1 on the year.

Would be my 4th event and an opportunity to hopefully hit 2.5 or 3 inches for the season. Currently at 2.

I thought Atlanta as of today had more snow than Philly too.

Did Raleigh get any accumulation before the mix?

I believe the Euro picked up on the last light snow event.

Any official snowfall report from Atlanta?

Any official report from Atlanta?

Looks like a robust Hadley Cell.

Not sure if this map is a la nina or El nino, however, looks as though phase 3 is cold across the country. Looking at the forecasted mjo looks like we may have a standing wave in three. This may keep us in the freezer?