EastonSN+

Actually just go to the MA forum they can post snow maps. 6z euro a general 1 to 4.

So the 6z euro is a miss now?

This look could end up snowy if we are on the right side of the gradient. That PV SE of Greenland can help ensure the SE ridge does not link up with the NAO (as long as it's not to Baja).

Blocking weakening. Forky mentioned previously the end of month for potential as the blocking migrated and broke down.

I have to point out we still had two snow events following the pattern flip.

We still managed two snow events after the flip. The February rainstorm which started with one to three inches of snow, and an overrunning event in March which I believe Central Park had 4.5 inches of snow. At this point a repeat of 2011 would be welcomed LOL.

CFS weekly stronger with the -EPO on current run pushing the SE ridge. Deeper vortex over Atlantic. Something to watch as we head towards February. SE ridge lower on New run. Previous Current

Strong wave developing in phase 2 and 3. Looks to die out before the end of the month.

I agree on the best route being the root cause. However, how is it possible to get developing countries onboard. I did not know until now about the aerosols very interesting.

There is an X post in the MA forum where the East Coast prediction from the European monthly model showing above average snowfall for February for the MA and Northeast. Grain of salt, but as Bluewave pointed out track is more important than temps in Jan/February.

If I am not mistaken it looks like the PV is disrupted again on the ensembles. Could make for an interesting February.

Bluewave did mention that storm track is more important than temperatures in January and February. IF the pattern can reload and we have these temps in March watch out.

Would be the third storm for the Delmarva already. This is very reminiscent of a few years ago where they cleaned up as well. Maybe 19/20 was the winter?

I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show?

Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall.

Yeah not too good

It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker?

Atlanta and Raleigh fringed.

One factor with March then I've learned from Reading this thread over the years is that the mjo phases affect March differently than other months due to shorter wavelengths. Therefore if we are in a warm phase in February it could end up a cold and stormy phase in March (which saved many a winter in the early 90s in late '80s). Of course an SSWE can work wonders like 2018, however can also have negligible effects.

Looks like the mjo will be heading into phase 3 at a decent amplitude. That being said, we were in the warm phases in December and still averaged colder than normal, albeit be it with little snow. Going into February we have questions: 1.) will the EPO continue to average negative, therefore keeping colder air on this side of the globe? 2.) will competing factors offset the warm mjo phases in the same manner that occurred in December? 3.) in the New England thread someone mentioned that it looks like it's heading colder again as we had toward March, begging the question of how long will we stay in the warm phases. Are are going to transition to a Nina look a bit later than usual, could this just be a pattern reload, or a pattern flip?

Good afternoon Walt. I posted any other thread how the GFS weekend/lost the cutter and has moved a little Southeast with the wave. Looks like the euro weekend/lost the cutter as well. It's plausible this Southeast trend/weakening of the northern low continues.

Three opportunities for snowfall on the GFS 12z run. A couple need a little work but not that at this range.

I don't trust the CMC however it's been pretty consistent with a general storm track on the East Coast.