EastonSN+

Hope CMC, which aligns with RGEM is correct on the next storm too as we get a moderate event.

It's only the ICON so not too much weight but bumped NW again.

This depiction would be ok for NW NJ, NW CT and past tapanzee bridge

The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain.

Yeah I know I put too much stock in it, but forky yesterday saying it could easily be rain is still residing in my thoughts.

We beat 4 inches in January 2022. I think we also had over 4 inches 2 years ago in 2023. Of course in 2021 we had one to two feet in one storm.

That's the model my local cable news leverages.

That's a big jump on the last frame. Really the standard Euro and eps are the biggest outlier. UKMET is a little better and closer to the coast from the European suite.

Flat, however could be due model spread.

Thanks Don. I am excited about the AI being so consistent. Of course the event hasn't happened yet however if the event is closest to what the AI has been showing, then we may have a more accurate closer range model which is a big win.

Looks a tick closer in a bit more precip if I'm not mistaken.

Cutting it really close now. Forky must have some model that comes out before we see them.

Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain.

Seems to be what would be expected from a temperature departure perspective in phase one.

Thanks Don that composite is almost a perfect match!

This would be great let's keep it here. Thanks for posting the snow maps as well as the surface depiction maps, as they are very helpful. Great to see the models are starting to come closer together. Thermal profile review will start to come into play, hopefully the Canadian suite is a bit too West and warm.

The gefs races the mjo through phase 3 into phase 4 for by the end of the month. The Pacific view below matches the amplitude. Again phase 3 looks to be a cold phase for February, although that look to me does not look like one that has a lot of precip but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Intriguing look at the end of the month. Heights over Alaska and the trough south of Greenland have been static all winter season. Now we get an RNA pumping up the southeast ridge. Unlike recent years the RNA at this time does not look to be that deep, which can easily work in our favor as that can allow Southwest flow events. We play with fire here as if the RNA gets too deep the southeast ridge will take over. That being said, that trough south of Greenland will continue to allow for a confluence and mitigate the South East ridge encroachment. Don/Blue Wave are there any good analogs for this type of setup? Not sure if I remember seeing this before.

The wave for the 24th on the GFS is mainly rain/coastal hugger after C-2 generally across the board (some ice).

I honestly would love to see the South get a good storm. Of course much more interesting down there.

Disappointing EURO run, however only one run and will likely change as we move forward.

Sorry Stormtracker had to share with this audience it's hilarious!

On a side note I feel that there is fear on the board of an RNA. Not all RNAs are the same and they can be very beneficial for us for snowfall if there is confluence pushing down the southeast ridge. RNAs can produce good Southwest flow events/changeover events that can add up. I feel that the board has been shaken up from the last two RNAs which were into Baja and extreme. If it was a moderate RNA with the blocking we would have had KU events, just the way it goes sometimes. Even the guidance in the past which has showed a move to an RNA never shows it to the extreme of the last 2 years. Finally even if we do go to an RNA it could be temporary.

I would roll the dice with this look.

Seems that the euro is most consistent with this storm while the Canadian seems to be most consistent with the larger follow up Storm. The GFS has been all over the place on all the events.