EastonSN+
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When looking at the ensembles there is definitely a Southeast ridge Spike in the middle of the period. Not sure if this is La Nina driven or merely an intense storm cutting to our West pumping up the Southeast ridge. Thereafter we continue with the trough in the east which aligns with the mjo passage. The look below is not bad at all.
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Nice look continues on the eps. Not overly suppressive with the block and a slight semblance of a negative EPO.
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Mjo wave is looking stronger now on the gefs.
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Just reach 1 inch of snow in Easton Connecticut. Sleet snow mix. -
The blocking matures around the 20th and a little after so there's a lot of time left on the clock. The next storm is a better set up than this one as the low pressure is further south in the cold air ahead of it is a little deeper.
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They had a half inch already today, not sure what they're up to for the season. The stat may not to be tracked however.
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Thanks Don, This has to be the greatest number of accumulating snowfalls before reaching 10 inches for Central Park.
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Snowflakes getting larger changeover could be approaching Easton CT.
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Still snow in Easton Connecticut.
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Track looks to be a little further south than this one too.
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Thanks Walt. As for this system I have seen it so many times in my day where we change over much quicker than expected (this type of setup), especially when the high pressure has moved off the coast.
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Interesting when you play the frames the EPO pinches off and heads toward the Scandinavian ridge which collides into the AO region. In any event Southeast ridge is muted from the block although the air will not be all that cold. That said average temps are plenty for February. Mjo should be heading through 8 at this juncture.
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Drought buster.
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Given the guidance so far I believe the map that the NWS published makes the most sense.
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Showing the gefs which is now starting to reflect the mjo passage in the longer range. Key differences to the eps from a negative perspective is the presence of an actual Southeast ridge, however, where are the EPS loses the negative EPO, the gefs keeps a semblance of it therefore there would be colder air nearby.
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You will do much better of course with SWFEs and pure Miller A's. What you'll do worse on our low pressures due south where there tends to be a dry slot in Central and Eastern Connecticut. Long Island never seems to get into the dry slot possibly due to the Long Island sound. In March of 2018 we're supposed to get one to two feet and ended up with one to three inches due to cold dry air draining down the Connecticut River valley.
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The wave has finally amplified per below. We remain on track for phase 8 for late February.
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Looking further out as the block decays we could have additional snowfall as this look is not overly suppressive (a bit of a WAR). Yes with the EPO as presented the temperatures will not be that cold, however plenty cold enough for late February (this has a look of average temps). Again average temps with precipitation due to the war is a good look for late February.
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RGEM pretty much held from 12z
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I will be honest neither one of those frames look good for our area for snowfall. The old one had more of a spread while the newer run looks more realistic and probably from a storm amping out west. What we ended up doing was trading a deeper RNA for stronger blocking.
