EastonSN+

I mean there's only a handful of big snow storms, if you're talking 12 plus, in the history of Central Park for March. So it was never in history a large snowfall month. That being said there are plenty of snowfall events for Central Park in March and even April. I mentioned this before, however March snowfall tends to be Decadal, which yes does argue against snowfall this decade, similar to 2000 through 2010 where it never ever snowed in March or very rarely. Opposed to the 1990s or the 2010s where it snowed a lot in March. So there's a different reason for less snowfall. That being said is somebody going to go into any December and say nope no snowfall can't happen? If nobody does that, why do they do that with March? All I'm saying is there's no reason to say there's no way or it's a pipe dream that winter will return. Unless somebody has irrefutable evidence to this effect, I cannot see any reason to believe this especially given shorter wavelengths and the mjos progression.

The craziest thing about March 2014 was the suppression even though the entire winter the nao and AO were positive. All the suppression was due to the polar vortex proximity.

Yeah 2002 2003 was the rare wall to wall winter.

See this is an interesting scenario where temperatures were not the issue, which is rare excluding the 70s and '80s. In this case we had the fast pac and a drought which may be cause and effect. So we could be heading back into mid-February with a less hostile background state from a la nina perspective, however still deal with low precipitation and DC and the Delmarva reap the benefits again.

Why do you believe this, could you provide statistics please?

See I don't understand why this is the sentiment for a lot of posters. We literally have had snow, 6 inches, in April in Central Park. March is a slightly snowier month then December. Yet we put much more hope in December than we do March. If I lived in Central Jersey or coastal Jersey or Southwest Long Island then yes the timeline is a little shorter, the same as December. Just go to Ray's winter storm archive or look up events and in no way, from Central Park to Northern New Jersey to the northern half of Long Island and Eastern Long Island through Connecticut does winter end the last week of February or the first two weeks of March. Can we have an early spring, sure, just like we could have a late winter in December. Yes if you want deep snow cover that last week's and weeks then January and February is it usually except March 2015 which was frigid and snowy throughout the entire month into April.

Exactly! This was a huge win temperature wise we just failed in the snowfall department as Blue Wave mentioned the fast jet which unfortunately benefited the deep South with historic snowfall as well as average snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic above average for the Delmarva. Our bad La niñas are when the RNA kicks in early to mid January. We love El Nino's because we lose December which we care less about than losing one to one and a half months of January and February.

So in La niñas we know March can be snowy. La niñas work against winter weather due to the RNA. Don mentioned that as we get to the second half of February the RNA has less of an effect due to shorter wavelengths. So if the La Nina pattern kicked in mid-January, which is more typical, we would be talking about a solid month plus of an RNA kicking up the southeast Ridge in the heart of Winter. Now we're talking about the beginning of February until the RNA becomes less hostile which is mid February perhaps the last week so 2 to 3 weeks. That's a huge win for a La Nina.

Right, however speaking specifically of timing, I thought La niñas typically kick in the beginning to mid January not the beginning of February. The RNA becomes less of a factor mid February which would only lead to 2 to 3 weeks of hostile winter weather background state. Our area typically does not do well in La niñas because we lose half of January and half of February, an entire heart of winter month. El Nino's are better, as December's are typically not as snowy for our area, therefore we have a better set up in the heart of the winter months of January and February.

Right, however I believe the warmer weather kicks in in mid-January typically. This year is more like 10 11 or 09 08 where the La Nina affects were later than usual. I believe 17/18 is more standard where after the first week of January where we had the big storm it warmed up for the second half of January all the way through February before we had an epic March. The later the effects of the La Nina like this year the less of a hostile winter weather period. The reason La Nina's typically are snowier in March is because rnas are less hostile as Don pointed out. We could literally be looking at only a 2 to 3 week La Nina warmer than average temperature scenario before the shorter wavelengths combat the La Nina RNA pattern. Going into the season if someone were to say we're going to have a moderate La Nina and only 2 to 3 weeks of hostile La Nina effects everyone would sign up.

I think this is a win scenario if you like colder than average temperatures as this La Nina kicked in a little later than usual. Also March can be snowy in La niñas (as Don mentioned going to the latter half of February RNAs are not as hostile). Therefore, if one likes winter weather, we may only have negative effects 2 to 3 weeks which is a massive win in a la nina.

I may be mistaken however isn't this La Nina a little delayed affects wise? I thought the first or second week of January is when the La Nina pattern typically kicks in with this year being a couple weeks later than normal.

Not much to update from yesterday. Looks like we're still on track for phase 8 with delayed effects last week of February through first 2/3 of March. Also as Don mentioned yesterday, a negative PNA, as we get to mid-February, due to shorter wavelengths is not as detrimental to snow as earlier months.

This is the benefit of the negative EPO and the cold being on our side of the globe. For this period we either need a follow-up wave after a cutter or a standard wave that does not over amplify. Either would suffice. If we can score one or two snow events during this period then we reach the cold mjo phases which could lead to additional snowfall chances, this time absent extreme blocking which should hold back the suppression.

I honestly think we have long-term patterns and 2000 to 2018 is a mirror image of 55 through 69. I think we have to look at 70 through 99 where we had five really good Winters. For me personally I don't think we're going back to the early 2000s. That being said, we have seen, storm track wise, the 1970s and 1980s where the Gulf Coast and Southeast are getting hit. Even in the warm winters in the last few years Tennessee and the Delmarva have gotten higher than average snowfall. I guess the good news to that would be in our warmer climate we can still have record snows in Florida and a trace of snow in May LOL. I think we need to do a lot of research into the 1970s and 1980s where the exact same thing we're having now is occurring. Warm and wet cold and dry. Blue Wave has identified the fast flow as a culprit for storms missing us. Is this why the same thing happened in the 70s and '80s, increasing volatility aside? Some positives I have seen this winter: 1. The warm ocean pool in Indonesia has failed to keep the mjo in a negative phases like we fear last year. 2. We can still have low average temperature Winters for multiple months. 3. We will not have perpetual troughs in the West Coast diving to Baja causing the southeast ridge to connect to the nao. 4. Not all in our blockings are now South based.

Correct if you go to Ray's winter storm archive it shows the radar echoes and surface maps. Miller A's can do this where it's north North East movement can cause rain or dry slot the further east you go especially Long Island and the eastern half of New England. Sometimes us if it's close enough to the coast.

Yeah it's really tracing the mjo. Per my post above to Don that wave should reach phase 8 the second or third week of February, then we have the one to two week lag. Given that the EPO seems to want to be negative the entire winter we will have ample cold on our side of the globe therefore providing cold air to tap into if the track is right.

It was more north-south oriented. Raleigh recorded there are largest snowfall in history with 25 inches I believe. Kind of like a mini 1993 superstorm setup where west was better.

Yeah the years we have a Gulf of Alaska trough flooding Canada with warm air is lights out the entire winter.

Thanks Don The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

We've got two months left. The mjo should get to phase 8 by the end of February. That's plenty of time to get another snow event. Was Walt really nervous winter was over?

It seems to be periodic in nature. 2000 through 2010 March snowfall was very low. 2011 through 2020 we had a number of snowfalls in march. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019. Now we are back to a period of non snowy marches. However, even in the 2000 through 2010 period we had the occasional snowfall in March. Therefore we cannot assume that it will not snow this March just because we are in a 10-year period that is not favorable for march snow. Were the odds better 1990 through 1999, or 2011 through 2019, yes. However it did snow in March 2000 through 2010. Therefore I cannot see any reason to state that it can't snow this March unless I am missing something.

Did we have blocking in March 2014? I thought that was the year of the negative EPO and the polar vortex sitting on top of us, acting as a steering/blocking mechanism. Regardless, you're telling me you would rather not get blocking again this year if you had a choice? Even though statistically as Don has pointed out blocking favors 6 + events.

Just because blocking failed us last time does not mean it would not benefit us next time. The intensity of the block coupled with shorter wavelengths may have a vastly different outcome than what we saw. I would gladly take the return of blocking. I am not looking at historically high temps or a torch. We will have more Southeast ridge influence, which as I discussed with Brooklyn, could result in favorable follow-up wave scenarios (as we all know cutter risk exist when there is a lack of blocking). We will likely still have the EPO negative, which further allows for the chance of a follow-up wave.

It seems that March is decadal. 2000 through 2010 we did not have much snowfall in March, however, 2011 through 2020 we had a few good marches like 2011 (I believe it was March not February that we had the 4.5 inch overrunning event), 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019. 2019 was better for the northern half of this forum. Agreed that 2018 was a historic event. However purely looking from a statistical perspective I believe Don had stats about returning blocking when it existed in December. Perhaps I am mistaken on that. Out of curiosity other than an sswe, what else would cause blocking? I believe a few years back the mjo went off the charts literally in phase 6 which resulted in the polar vortex getting disrupted. So it appears that a strong mjo wave could also lead to blocking like an SSwe. What else would cause it that we can look for.