EastonSN+

What sometimes occurs is the wave will weaken and become ineffective, or as they say go into the cod. However looking at the snip I provided originally, while weakening, the wave looks to have enough amplitude to have a downstream effect. On a side note, Don mentioned that shorter wavelengths, starting mid-February, can counter the effects of an RNA (the driver of the dreaded southeast ridge). Last year there was a lot of discussion about the warm Waters around Indonesia and north of Australia causing a perpetual phase four five six. However this year the warm Waters seem to have little effect on the mjo, not sure entirely why however this year we got into phase 1 with a good amplitude which we could not do last year. Perhaps the waters there are starting to cool or water in other locations are rising therefore allowing for the wave to continue.

To help avoid confusion the below aligns with the wave progression of the previous snip.

There's another way to get to a good snowfall setup without an sswe. If we can get the mjo to phase 8 which it's moving in that direction, we do not need the aforementioned sswe. Also as we know the volatility that is associated with late February and March can lead to bowling ball Lows which can take a favorable track and have high intensity. Not saying it's definite, or predicting/calling for a snowy period, however, the wave is definitely heading toward phase 8 and that is a colder phase. So I believe the right call at this point in time is that it is unlikely to have an sswe, however, we are likely heading toward a colder phase of the mjo and therefore we may have another 2 to 4 week period which is conducive to snowfall. Just like we can't definitely say we're heading toward a snowy period, we cannot definitively say that we are going to torch and the Southeast ridge is going to rule, and for some reason the mjo is just going to fall flat and not continue moving to phase eight (intensity can fluctuate wherever it'll still move there). Unless there is some research to the contrary, I am happy to take a look (i.e. analogs matching the current setup, mjo inclusive, which state 75% of the time in the current conditions we had zero snowfall and above normal temps through March).

No changes from yesterday. Still on track to reach phase 8 by the end of February. Also by mid-February the RNA that will occur will no longer be as detrimental to snowfall.

I personally still like to follow the departures. I do not like to compare to negative departures of the past as for me, there's nothing I can do about it and it will never affect me in the present. Therefore, for me personally, a negative departure today is still a big deal, the same as it was for me back in the 90s or in the 80s.

Completely agree. Also as Don mentioned the RNA is less of a factor starting mid-February which is just over 2 weeks away. Never understood the concept of winter ending on February 1st in a La Nina. It's just a Southeast ridge which all depends on the strength in is driven by how deep the RNA is. We do not know the specifics yet.

100% agree. We even had April snow back in 2018 and a couple of good snow events in 2019 in March. Again March snowfall switches depending on the decade, where the 90s saw a lot of March now, the 2000s saw almost no March snow and a 2010s having a lot of March snow. We are back in a low snowfall decade for March. That being said it could still happen.

Or even a trace of snow in May like a couple of years ago.

I guess it's just a matter of perception per person then. To me three accumulating snowfall events two in February and one in March for Central Park in the surrounding area is still winter. Winter ending, to me, is no more snow. If I could lock in three more snow events this winter, two in February and one in March were Central Park records snow in all three I would take it in a heartbeat.

Central Park recorded 4.5 in of snow in the late February storm.

That's still three accumulating snowfalls following the start of February. I think getting Central Park another four to seven inches over three events is still winter. Winter ending would be something along the lines of 2001 2002 or 2011-2012 where Winter really did end.

This could have actually happened in the past too thinking about it. How many times have they changed the measurement in and out of shade over the past 100 plus years.

How could you say that when we had more snow events after that. If winter ended we would have no more snow.

Also if we look to 2010-2011 as another "front loaded" La Nina, look how many snow events we had starting February 1st: February 1-2. 1 to 5 inches. February 21. 4 to 8 inches. March 24-25. 1 to 3 inches. So no, winter did not end after January. It just felt that way because that was the end of the train of KU events.

I'm comparing typical La Nina conditions versus what we had. Usually in a La Nina we torch by mid/late January, we had a couple extra weeks. Yes snowfall is subpar and in fact we had more snow in a more typical La Nina (17/18 well above average snowfall) than this colder one. The drought conditions hurt us and the snowfall department so far.

I personally think this winter is a big win considering our front loaded winter lasted all the way to February which is late. That shortens the hostile environment to just two to three weeks when the shorter wavelengths counter the RNA. Also the mjo wave per below weakens in the warmer phases and of course moves East so we should be in the cooler phases by the end of February.

Did those years also have strong blocking in the first half of the season?

That may be a good analog, how was DC and the southeast that year? Of course not expecting a historic Gulf of Mexico snow storm LOL.

2008 2009 was an underrated winter. A very icy winter with a lot of snow cover days. Seems overlooked with all the other Winters which featured KU type snowfalls.

Yeah I think I remember these. I remember one March which was following a relatively snowless season. We had a snowfall event which is only supposed to be 2 to 4 in and ended up being 5 to 10 followed by a vigorous clipper which gave three to six. What's interesting is it does not seem to follow temps. Those Winters were warm and we had a snowy late '90s March which was also warm. Then we've had snowy marches which were frigid years. The volatility during March and the change of seasons make it an extreme wild card, but in no case at this point where one can say that there's no chance.

I think in looking at the past we have to look for low snowfall, cold average temperature La Nina Winters and see where March ended up. Probably not that many so with a small sample size it's going to be a wait and see scenario. Mjo progression is in our favor.

I think we're a long way away from losing March as a snowfall month. Again it's Decadal. The '90s had snowy marches, the 2000s did not, the 2010s had snowy marches. So far the 2020s have not.

Yeah a few smaller events or a moderate one would be great and match what we've had so far. Would still consider a big win and not a "winter is over" scenario.

Hopefully another jump South and colder so Southern New England can benefit too.

I don't know why but I feel like it's a victory when the Mid-Atlantic and the South do great snowfall wise even when we don't (seems to be happening a more lately since 2018). Also the colder temperatures, longer into the season, has helped the ski resorts make snow which is a definite positive. So yes a negative snowfall wise but a positive temperature wise, unless one likes warmer weather, which I had must admit I love warm weather when it's not snowing LOL.