EastonSN+

Yeah, I look at this as an opportunity for a light event.

Seems to be following the last waves progression.

Most of the time persistence wins. For last winter and this winter to date there have been two themes: Dry Cold Warm ups are short and snowfalls are light to moderate.

Not January, but February of 1985: 2 days 70+ 4 days 60+ For some reason I remembered February 1985 being cold. My memory is not what is once was.

January and February of 1990 were just as warm. 6 days 60+ 25 days 50+

Actually it was February 1991. January 1991 was +10 for 10 days during the month. February 1991 hit 60 degrees or warmer 5 days! 50 plus 11 days!

7 days +10 central park. The worst one in my life was 1991 we actually wore short sleeves for a few days lol.

I guess in a bright note (for those who like cold) the January thaw looks like it ends today, CPK will be approx 40 tomorrow.

Light snow now on the CMC. Shifted west.

Yeah we do have to wait for the fast flow to slow down for larger events. One note, REGION WIDE foot plus events are relatively rare. In the 30 year low snowfall period there were 2 in 1978, 1 in 1983, 1 in 1994, 1 in 1995 and 1 in 1996. Only 3 in 20 years from 1970 to 1989. Ironically, the 1990s which were much warmer had the most. This is why I am not too worried with the current run.

The best summary by ORH_wxman

Is there an actual definition for how long a January thaw lasts at CPK? Just an AI Google search... A January thaw in Central Park typically lasts about a week, sometimes a little longer, with temperatures rising significantly above average before returning to normal winter conditions, though the exact duration and intensity vary yearly.

I am using central park which has an average high of just above 39.

If the forecast holds the warm up would have lasted 9 days. The 6th through the 14th.

2006 as well.

This 1,000%. So much has to be in place for a KU.

It won't be normal. Depends on your definition of just below normal. Average CPK high temps in January are approx. 39.5 degrees.

This month is going to average below normal.

Looks like we are going to hit phase 8 again. So much for getting stuck in phases 4,5,6 due to the warm pool in the western pacific. Reasons to be optimistic: Warm pool causing repeated 4,5,6 seams to have stopped. Clippers being extinct no longer the case. SE ridge always linking with the MJO not always occurring. SE ridge being an unstoppable force is no longer the case. Next up - fast flow.

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. Colder than average starting the 18th.

Steady....looks pretty close to the last wave that hit 8.

Nothing is worse than cold dry, warm wet.

Hey Don if that Dip in PNA is false, we could have the -AO, PNA and MJO phase 8 line up! The missing piece would be the NAO.

I honestly do not understand these maps. Is that representative of a stretched PV?