EastonSN+

This 1,000%. So much has to be in place for a KU.

It won't be normal. Depends on your definition of just below normal. Average CPK high temps in January are approx. 39.5 degrees.

This month is going to average below normal.

Looks like we are going to hit phase 8 again. So much for getting stuck in phases 4,5,6 due to the warm pool in the western pacific. Reasons to be optimistic: Warm pool causing repeated 4,5,6 seams to have stopped. Clippers being extinct no longer the case. SE ridge always linking with the MJO not always occurring. SE ridge being an unstoppable force is no longer the case. Next up - fast flow.

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. Colder than average starting the 18th.

Steady....looks pretty close to the last wave that hit 8.

Nothing is worse than cold dry, warm wet.

Hey Don if that Dip in PNA is false, we could have the -AO, PNA and MJO phase 8 line up! The missing piece would be the NAO.

I honestly do not understand these maps. Is that representative of a stretched PV?

Nice dip in the AO.

Potential for phase 8 by EOM.

There were 3 1970 to 1999. 4 if you throw in 2001/2002. 1996 through 1999 was 10.0, 5.5, 12.7, 16.3. Throw in 2001 to 2002 of 3.5 and that is a terrible stretch.

Close to a moderate event.

Moisture starved.

Was hoping the CMC would follow. However it may show a better 2nd wave.

The PNA spike along with the continued -AO should at least keep things interesting.

Is it possible for a wave to move this fast? 2.5 days in 7?

There were plenty of extremely warm winters and below 10 inch seasons. I literally lived them. I am seeing the exact same thing but a couple degrees warmer.

Prior to 2000 NYC's average snowfall was approx. 27.5 inches. Reason I am stating this is to show that it constantly fluctuates and we are in a low snowfall period. Again, 5 above average snowfall winter 1970 to 1999. We are on the same pace 2018 till now. None of what's happening should be a shock.

So far the northern stream clippers have worked out.

Out of left field question - does a radar look exist for the blizzard of March 1993? All I have ever scene were two frames.

This is not a bad look at all for the heart of winter.

Thanks for this. Also Don provided stats on how a positive PNA was likely following a long RNA period. It DOES look as though we are heading into phase six again, almost connecting to the last wave starting period below. If this holds we could see another phase 8. So much for the warm pool keeping us in phases 4/5/6, clippers being extinct, NAO always linking to the SE Ridge, SE ridge being an entity in itself and taking over. I think you even showed the warm pool was shifting slowly east which would be favorable (i.e. the western warm pool being there "the rest of our lives").

0.75 inches fell overnight Easton CT

0.75 inches Easton CT.