EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Very strange just watched The weather channel and they doubled down on New York City getting 5 inches. They must be going off to href that Don posted. Not surprised that they are not deviating from the national weather service though. They have 80% of Long Island 6 Plus. -
The worst power about the whole thing was the local forecasts and the national weather service stuck to their guns up until early in the morning even though the euro was the last and only to fall because the nam fell earlier.
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Ouch That was the most depressing heavy snow event in my lifetime. Felt bad after getting seven inches of snow LOL.
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I disagree with that post that was provided. The whole point of having these tools at our disposal are to have an idea of what type of pattern is coming up. It is a fact that it is a better than average pattern to get snowfall. What is the point of developing this technology if all we're going to do is say oh darn it didn't snow I'm never looking at the future again and see a good pattern and think it's going to snow. End users should know better than to think that a better than average pattern is going to guarantee a great outcome, same as looking at a pattern that's going to give us 70° weather is definitely not going to give us snow same as February 2018. Our alternative would be to stop developing the technology and stop utilizing the long range forecasting. That is taking a step back in progress. As a hobbyist I want to share the excitement of a good period that is coming up. If it doesn't pan out and we get nothing or close to nothing I'm not going to stop looking at the long range forecast and say hope it's never going to work again. Never understood why posters want to post their feelings instead of posting perhaps a counter to the h5 look with additional material to explain why it won't work out other than it hasn't so far so why should it in the future.
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Normally I wouldn't post maps like that that far in advance however just wanted to show the models perhaps are picking up on the blocking that is setting up in that time frame
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It will change 100 times and change dates too if it occurs but here is as far north as the mix gets. That dark red south of Long Island is extremely heavy snow.
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That confluence to the Northeast of Canada is holding the high pressures in place.
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No it's further out in time but it's more in line with the optimal time frame where the blocking becomes more established. Check out the high pressures and the slug of moisture.
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GFS has the closest thing to a KU we can get. The only caveat is the changeover gets pretty far north again to about Central Jersey but given it's out there in time the details don't matter there is a banana high and a lot of moisture coming north.
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Truth be told I live in New England too in Easton Connecticut.
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You're in a prime spot for the next event this weekend being further east. The weeklies did show the favorable pattern lasting into mid-march. Devil is in the details of course and past success does not guarantee future results.
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It really does look like the beginning of the last blocking episode in January where the Mid-Atlantic scored as well.
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Great post by Seymour snow. Please know that part of that sub forum includes Fairfield county Connecticut only a few miles from New York City.
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Extended so we all know the caveats. Would rather it show this than the opposite. Disclaimer, snowfall depiction does not guarantee snowfall in your backyard. Please review responsibly.
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Actually looks a lot like January's cold outbreak, albeit a bit muted.
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That is as close to a perfect look as you will see. Suppression less of an issue due to the Western Atlantic ridge, negative EPO bleeding into the PNA region. Trough in the middle of the country working with the Western Atlantic ridge to pull moisture up. Blocking far enough South to help mitigate suppression.
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I have a question why are Kutchera maps banned from posting? I'm conscious of the fact that it can over inflate in all snow events, however, shouldn't an exception be made for changeover type events since sleet over inflates the 10 to 1 maps? I have been using a positive snow depth maps, although they can sometimes be low. They did nail the half an inch for Central Park yesterday.
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It's just the nam so one model suite, however as depicted the initial snow band weakens before it gets here then the mixing happens. Long Island sound change over line stay static. Let's see what the other models show.
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That's hilarious about TWC. The climate is warming however why not throw in there that suppressed storms of the past would be pumped up and hit us due to the more present Southeast ridge and the virga storms of the past like 1987 would be more snow due to the higher moisture content in higher temperatures? They need to paint the total picture lol. I mean this storm was never supposed to be a big event I think two to four for Central Park is a big win. This is the 1970 through 1999 period in a nutshell, cold and dry warm and wet or a complete toaster baths with extreme warm Winters or frigid Winters with no precept. Every year growing up it was pulling teeth trying to get an all snow event LOL.
