EastonSN+

Agreed and both would work here to some extent. Could be worse.

That's funny. Both would work for us for different reasons. TBH I would take the EPS as the negative AO is shredding Everything. Sure we would be at a cutter risk but would setup trailing wave potential. GEFS could still work but more light event potential. At some point we WILL snow.

Do you have the picture that's shows phase 7 in January?

I do not have the EC ensembles past 240, however looks like a gradient patters sets up day 10 on GEFS with our area north of the gradient. The SE ridge would work in our favor battling suppression from the non stop Negative AO.

Working in our favor. Phase 7 works well of us in January while IF it touches 8 we may be able to save February. That is best case scenario not a forecast.

Imo the 6z GFS makes more sense, trailing waves are usually weaker and more suppressed. Hard to get a trailing wave to amp up like that.

Love watching football in the snow IN SEATTLE. Wild.

Would be funny if we get close to shut out then have a 2018 type March/April and reach seasonal average. 12z runs discouraging BUT ensembles look on track.

I remember being at 58 inches with 3 snowfall events in March lined up on the models. All three sunk south. Only needed 10 to be second place of 67 from 02/03. No way was going to take first place which was 92 inches in 95/96.

Sorry meant December 2013 I thought that was the polar vortex attack.

Wow. Shocked 2014 was not below average. Like u said though our snow is more storm track based than temperature.

I loved the look of the Euro this run.

Good point. Looking into Jan already and we have a chance at our second accumulation in December!

Yup. I feel real good about January as a whole.

Thanks was looking at the ensembles and was pleased to see this setup. Deeper cold snaps will traverse the country with the SE ridge Popping in between. This volatility can lead to better overrunning setups.

Merry Christmas

This is our opportunity window.

One thing I have noticed on the ensembles this morning is that although the trough stays out west, we get repeated bouts of cold air. Having an intense cold lobe nearby in our hemisphere allows for these cold snaps. Easy for a trailing wave to produce. This pattern looks static throughout the entire run on all three ensembles.

This is what I am talking about for early Jan. LR GFS so NOT saying this exact storm will happen but early Jan an event or 2 such as this CAN produce light to moderate snowfall. If I was a gambler I would NOT bet on a ratter (my definition of ratter is less than 10 inches of snowfall for the year). Hell 11/12 I received 11.5 for the season including the October storm. Wide range since it's early 10 to 20 on the season.

Measured 0.5 on my deck. Looks the same on yard and driveway. Easton CT Thanks!

Measured on deck. 0.5 inches Easton CT. Shutout winter avoided. Next firs moderate snowstorm early Jan hopefully

I don't think the METS on the forums were wish casting when they said January held promise. The ensembles we're heading there. It just fell apart to some extent.

I still think we get our snow chances once the NAO relaxes and allows a few cutters to get the colder air east. This would allow for weaker trailing waves to produce. The NAO is hurting us here. Hey if we can snow in Feb 2018 when it was 70 the day before......

I look at it as a positive. The current setup is shredding all incoming storms. Let the AO NAO go positive to cutters can pull down cold air from west coast, allowing for weaker trailing waves to give us snow.

If u want to peg a snowless analog I think 01/02 would be closer as 11/12 was WAYYYYYYYY warmer for the entire continent. Completely different setup. This does bring up a point about snowfall though. Even though 01/02 was much colder than 11/12, I received only 4.5 inches of snow in 01/02 vs 11.5 in 11/12. Goes to show that a warm winter can be snowier than a colder one! One could argue that if we did not have the negative NAO we would have more snow by now, even if we had more 60 degree days as stronger cutters would not get shredded and weaker follow up waves can bring us snow like 2012. This year everything is shredded. In the end losing either the RNA or negative NAO will yield better snowfall results.