EastonSN+

NAM looks better for first storm.

The AO is supposed to stay negative FWIW. Also apparently the vortex is getting hit yet again.

I hope trending. Do not know if more north members than 6z.

Thanks. I take this as 5 members skewing the mean north while majority are south and weaker.

Stole from MA forum.

Looks like more of a temp thing on the ukmet.

Thanks. Do you have the EPS as well? Hoping matches GEFS. Thanks

Have to feel good for the MA. I believe the last time they had more snow than our region was 2009 2010. The below is for the first storm.

Question. Do the EPS tellies have a rising NAO as well? Perhaps the reason the GFS gets the late week storm closer to us is due to the fact that it has a rising NAO. I am assuming the EPS keeps the NAO negative hence keeping the storm south.

I think the snowstorm of Jan 2012 is a great example if I am not mistaken. In a sea of warmth we got a moderate to heavy snow even from a "trailing wave" which followed a cutter I believe.

I take the below as a HUGE positive. We need a reshuffle. Would like to note that AO stays negative and PNA rises to neutral.

Thanks Don. If global warming is to blame (not saying it is but IF), it's amazing how all global warming effects are working against us. Hadley Cell Indian ocean temps Atlantic SSTs Extreme Jet (not sure if Hadley Cell is causing this) Pretty remarkable nothing so far has helped us

I hate to say it but the south based NAO is what did us in. We had a positive PNA first half of Jan and the NAO killed our chances. Then we had a negative EPO with cold air and instead of overrunning events the south based NAO is shredding the events. We need the NAO to move North. Will be interesting to see if the MA ends up with more snow than us. The polar vortex is taking another hit. This is bad as it will reinforce the negative NAO. What I do not understand is why it's stuck in a south based location. I may end up with less snow than last year!!!! Would be the first back to back ratter for as long as I have been tracking weather. March is always a wildcard so we shall see.

I am guessing EPS is showing same pattern as first half of Jan

Yeah they deserve so win one

So close

Canadian furthest NE with accums.

Yeah. I think I am out of the game here in SW CT. What a monster for the following storm for the SE and MA. Wow.

Weeklies keep the negative NAO through Feb 22. The week of the 15th through 22 looks nice with no SE ridge and -NAO placed further north. Also a small rise in PNA. Perhaps this would be the pattern break down week with a great chance of a pattern break down storm? Also per Twitter rumblings of another PV split. So maybe a negative NAO through Feb.

Middle Atlantic s turn to get crushed. Good for them it's been years.

I know Twitter bad etc... However would an east based NAO in FEB be better for us? 2nd tweet. https://mobile.twitter.com/simonleewx?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fsimonleewx%2fstatus%2f1352241685514883073

Same here.

To anger everyone with Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1351531259206447105?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fjudah47%2fstatus%2f1351531259206447105

I did not personally like the look of the weeklies below. Did have the negative NAO but south based past week 2 and looks like linked to the SE Ridge. Of course they are the weeklies so take with a grain of salt. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101180000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202103010000

Thanks Don. Given that Boston was the only City to realize accumulating snow in those cases, do you give much weight to the models showing the middle Atlantic getting snow, or do you believe once we get closer in time the south based NAO will "shred" the systems.