EastonSN+

Yup. I forgot which storm it was but the same thing happened to CT about 20 years ago.the further west this stalls the worse it is. This is why we are seeing areas to the SW getting higher totals on the maps. It's kind of trending towards the 12 z ukie.

Models are close now. Probably some waffling north and south but getting there.

Real interesting map. NYC gets a 16 dot. I am guessing the best of the deform band is that way

And that's excluding round 2

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 403 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 CTZ005>007-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-301000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0004.191201T1200Z-191203T1200Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 403 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches well inland, and 5 to 8 inches elsewhere. A light glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, inland southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact holiday travel and the morning and evening commutes on Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start as all snow on Sunday. Many areas except well inland are expected to change to rain Sunday night. However, a change back to a wintry mix is expected by Monday morning, and all snow by Monday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Agreed. Much prefer being by the water in June though than north with snow.

Thanks! You have the 12 z eps snow map?

Anyone have the 12z eps

11 right on the CT coast! I hope!

Yup. 1 to 2 from the front and 4 to 8 from the back.

Jan 2011. First wave over performed here with 4.5 2nd was crushed with and additional 13.5.

Agreed. Same theme as last winter however the fact that the NAO actually showed up before March, and the fact that the MJO is staying in the better phases a little longer, gives me HOPE for a slightly better outcome.

Completely agreed. Although we can be surprised on the front end if the precip is heavy enough we can see 1 to 3 with it. Secondary low is a complete wild card.

Agreed. Our winter was November into early December and March. Amazing we ended up within striking distance to average considering.

Let's hope the MJO loops through the bad phases a little quicker than last year.

I would sign up for the 10 the EURO is showing even for the SW coast in a heartbeat! Bring it!

Perhaps we are following last year's script with an early season snowfall followed by a bad period. Fits the MJO progression.

Does that cat live in NNE

Yeah. Hopefully a fun one

Can't congratulate quite yet.

Watch this and end up being a NNE event.

In all honesty the ICON snowfall map is what I expect since it gives me little snow.

NAM and GFS vs. EURO.

Yeah bad for south Central CT In Fairfield county we landed 1 foot. Was expecting far less.

I don't think the blocking was the same in that scenario. NYC still got 10 inches although not the expected 24. I think the opposite happened 2009 2010 when it was always south.