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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    https://justinweather.com/2021/12/14/death-of-long-range-weather-models/
  2. EastonSN+
    Hope the NAO is a little more west based this year. Don't think there was a lot is snow in SNE 70/71 but could be wrong.
  3. EastonSN+
    I am guessing the only thing that would be a concern is lack of precipitation/dry? Otherwise that's a great blocking setup.
  4. EastonSN+
    All the tells are heading in a good direction this morning. The only somewhat negative would be the delay in getting the MJO to 8. Keeps getting pushed back day after day. It's not showing a stall in 7 then drop to COD, but rather higher amplitude and slower. That could be GREAT as 7 is good and IF IF IF it gets into 8 at a close Amplitude AND that slow, could be a really good winter.
  5. EastonSN+
    Actually getting amped for the depicted upcoming pattern. May not produce KUs but can easily produce light to moderate if not heavy. Hopefully it pans out. Still can't believe I have only experienced 6 below Average snowfall winters this century! Maybe it's why I am optimistic. Blocking is always good to have.
  6. EastonSN+
    Long duration type events like December 1995 or Feb 1994 can happen. Generally west to east strung out but long duration with 6 to 12 amounts.
  7. EastonSN+
    Only halts on EC not GEFS. Better to look at the EC ensembles.
  8. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don! Even the smaller snowfalls would be welcome. Would imagine as the blocking broke down in those cases larger events occurred (NAO rise)? That may have led to the Feb. 69 blizzard.
  9. EastonSN+
    Thanks again for the above. The ensembles seem to have the NAO further north than the above, and the RNA a little more east/onshore. Perhaps this will lead to more precip? In any case it's exciting to see a pattern not experienced since 69! February 69 had one of the best blizzards of all time, perhaps as the blocking relaxes we experience something similar.
  10. EastonSN+
    Are there any similar looks in the past to compare the upcoming patter to? I can't remember such a set-up.
  11. EastonSN+
    I feel like March has surpassed December as a legitimate snowfall month.
  12. EastonSN+
    I am curious how the tri-state does in such a set-up. There must be a huge gradient between central Jersey, long island up to 84.
  13. EastonSN+
    Great storm. Actually got 6 all the way down to the coast in Norwalk.
  14. EastonSN+
    Your right was 18/19
  15. EastonSN+
    Probably. However I am intrigued by the forecasted MJO, and the fact that we are not following a typical La Nina December. I can see a couple of periods before March where we see a few overrunning, changeover events leading to a close to, or normal snowfall winter. 19/20 ended up being fairly close to normal (just a few inches below) with a snowy March. I can see something similar this year. Looks nothing like a ratter (aka 11/12).
  16. EastonSN+
    Is phase 7 good in a Nina?
  17. EastonSN+
    I think this delay by the EC is a product of the EC MJO lagging behind the GEFS in it's progression. The GEFS is already in phase 8.
  18. EastonSN+
    Not a MET but the blocking starting to show must be from the MJO progression. Here is the EC with same look as GEFS (a few days slower than GEFS).
  19. EastonSN+
    Thanks! I really do think that the NAO and EPO can work to give us at least a couple chances for snow. Probably nothing great, however nothing wrong with 1 to 3 or 2 to 4. We probably get another MJO cycle to 8 later in winter as well.
  20. EastonSN+
    Yeah that look works from NYC on North.
  21. EastonSN+
    Poor Buffalo!
  22. EastonSN+
    Thanks, I always thought New Jersey was considered Northeast (MA Delaware south to North Carolina).
  23. EastonSN+
  24. EastonSN+
    It's the CFS but Jan and Feb look pretty good.
  25. EastonSN+
    Just a trace/coating here in Easton.
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