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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don this is an interesting discrepancy. Of course 2010 is an extreme example, which we would probably want to avoid in this case as I would favor the Middle Atlantic more than our area.
  2. EastonSN+
    The GFS app is starting to show the changing pattern well. Positive snow depth change below (not kutchera). This is JUST through the 11th.
  3. EastonSN+
    FWIW, the historic cold outbreak and southern snow occurred between phases 1 and 2. Phase one looks very familiar where the Northeast had above average temps while the southeast had below (followed by phase two where we were all in the freezer).
  4. EastonSN+
  5. EastonSN+
    That's mine and unfortunately hasn't been too helpful lately LOL.
  6. EastonSN+
    From the Middle Atlantic forum. This is a good example of not hyping, but rather stating facts and keeping expectations in check by stating looks good for now. @Allsnow conscious that you posted this earlier as well.
  7. EastonSN+
    100% just provide the facts and the projections and leave it up to the individuals as to whether they want to hype it up in their heads are not
  8. EastonSN+
    It's a matter of timing as well as strength. The gefs has a slower progression than the eps, not a dramatically different progression. The 6z may be speeding up the progression as earlier frames does have a higher Southeast ridge.
  9. EastonSN+
    This is the gefs which is slower to get to phase 8 hence the southeast ridge driven by the RNA. To me this is a good luck, as suppression would be taken off the table for the most part and the blocking would limit the southeast ridge. Also the fact that we have plenty of cold on our side of the globe is an advantage in changeover events. I for one like to track snowfall totals, therefore if we get a two to four event washed away by rain it still counts as two to four for the yearly snowfall.
  10. EastonSN+
    Putting aside late February where Don mentioned an RNA has less of a negative impact, tonight in the next couple weeks may show that an RNA does not automatically mean a torch and no snowfall. A shallow RNA can be extremely beneficial. Again we do not want a trough to Baja which can overpower the other teleconnections. Usual caveats apply with regards to boundary and latitude.
  11. EastonSN+
    If I'm not mistaken your referencing the 5-day window for an opportunity for a benchmark track/heavy snowfall correct? With regards to temperatures and light events like tonight, our window should extend another 10 days given that we still need to traverse through phases one and two, which I believe each phase has a muted Southeast ridge due to ridging out west.
  12. EastonSN+
    Looks like a nice coating to 3 inches for the northern half of the sub forum. Favored are the Northern areas of Westchester and coastal Connecticut.
  13. EastonSN+
    The wave looks a little stronger today as it heads toward phase eight. The eps at the bottom is showing signs of blocking in the trough migrating East.
  14. EastonSN+
    I don't think I've ever remembered a winter where it took so many events to reach 10 inches of snow.
  15. EastonSN+
    Not much
  16. EastonSN+
    One to three down to the CT Coast.
  17. EastonSN+
    More specific details on the other thread, however, a light snow event will happen tomorrow night.
  18. EastonSN+
    3K gets up to an inch to the North shore of Long Island, half an inch for Central Park and one to three for coastal Connecticut.
  19. EastonSN+
  20. EastonSN+
    NAM 12k that's up to a half an inch to Central Park. 1 to 3 coastal Connecticut.
  21. EastonSN+
  22. EastonSN+
    Agreed that the next two weeks are going to be a little tough for the general area. We should have a much better opportunity second half of February into March.
  23. EastonSN+
    HRRR has 1 to 3 CT coast. About an inch on the North fork of Long Island. A coating for the North shore of Western Long Island. About a half inch Westchester county.
  24. EastonSN+
    I think phases eight one and two as well as the length of the blocking time frame will easily lead into the second week of March.
  25. EastonSN+
    FWIW TWC is predicting one to three inches for the CP of Connecticut.
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