EastonSN+

I don't like the 93/94 or 13/14 comparisons as the h5 setup was completely different in those years. If we had the same setup today we would get the same results except a few degrees warmer. So instead of 14° and sleet it would be 17° and sleet. Not Florida breaking a record followed by a cutter.

What is also interesting is we are by no means lacking cold air like we saw in the last two years because of the historic rnas which brought historic cold to the West and California. This is purely a storm track issue not temperature. What is also interesting is for a lot of years Washington DC was in a snow hole according to the Mid-Atlantic forum. No matter what the storms are always south or north of DC. Now DC is in the bullseye and one of the posters in the Middle Atlantic forum stated that the snow hole has just moved Northeast and is now over Philly and New York. I guess we can put Boston in there to a certain extent now. If it moved before it will move again. The positives are we are not lacking cold air. We are still snowing albeit little events. If it gets snow in Florida can snow here LOL. The atmosphere is always changing so we will break out of this its just how long.

This is the second linkage. Setting aside the trough which is too far west for us, look at the block. When you run the animation the block drops down in a rotation fashion and very briefly touches the southeast ridge which again is being pulled up by a large storm. Weaker storms just like the last one do not pump up the southeast ridge while the larger ones do. It has to be the storms pulling up the ridge.

The southeast ridge, or Western Atlantic ridge, links up to the block here however look to the west and that storm diving down into a deep trough in the West. The RNA in this depiction is what is likely causing the linkage not the southeast ridge flexing in and of itself pushing down the RNA.

I'm not an expert however if I were to guess I would say that the fast flow is causing the storms to not have enough time to gather enough moisture. Plus I've heard in the past where they say the storm ahead of it took the moisture out of the atmosphere. Not sure about that but could be the case as well.

Don I know you're busy, however you get a chance would you be able to see if getting too -4 standard deviation blocks in a single season is common or this is new territory. The number of blocks we received in the last 5 years seems extremely odd.

But my point is I don't think it's the southeast ridge flexing. If that were the case we would have continuous Southeast ridge which is not the case. Virginia just had a heck of a snowstorm. Florida broke a record this season. When I believe is happening are the intensity of the storms are increasing which of course would bring up the southeast ridge ahead of it not the other way around. The results are the same so the casual enthusiast will just chalk it up to rain. However it makes a huge difference when looking at weather for these Coast. If it was a Southeast ridge itself snowfall averages would be dropping in the Delmarva in Tennessee not the other way around.

What is causing the increased frequency of intense blocking? We keep getting blocking episodes over the past few years over and over again so it has to be increasing. I remember a couple of years ago in the New England forum there was a block that failed and it was discussed how the block formed. Ie was it a true block or was it heat induced which is called a bootleg walk. The key point here is the bootleg block will fail more often than not as opposed to 2021 which was a true block. Also when is the last year we had two negative four standard deviation blocks in the same year? That has to be new or extremely rare. Liberty Bell had a good question which was why are we seeing increased snowfall in the Middle Atlantic especially at Delmarva while we are dropping. You mentioned I have to do with a fast flow but does that mean the delmarva's snowfall average will continue to increase while we decrease? The fact still remains that the Middle Atlantic is still getting hit as is places like Kansas City St Louis Tennessee so on and so forth. That seems to be increasing in the last few years. What happened in New Orleans in Florida was absolutely incredible having the largest snowfall in their histories so yeah I believe what I mentioned before that the higher what are temperatures are feeling more intense storms. Perhaps in the past it really was this cold in Florida and New Orleans however they receive more snowfall in this event because of the higher temps in the Gulf.

I still can test that it needs to be investigated further. Kind of a chicken or egg thing regarding whether it's the southeast ridge flexing or it's the intense storms pulling up the southeast ridge. Also what no one seems to be suggesting is the location of the block. It's not just looking at a value and saying oh it's negative 4 or 5 or whatever, but where the block set up.

1.8 in Easton CT. 14.55 YTD.

Actually just measured 1.8 pleasant surprise. I am 2 miles north of the Fairfield boarder.

1.8 in Easton CT. 14.55 STD.

The delayed schools again for the 100th time this year. Didn't measure yet 1 think this puts Central Park at 11.5?

The delayed schools again for the 100th time this year. Didn't measure yet

I mean it's not a BAD winter cause of multiple events to track and snow cover. Plus 1/3 of seasonal average so far.

Go figure we finally get a winter where all 4 months may be below normal temps (at least three and maybe March) and the deep South and mid Atlantic reap the benefits.

The trough will remain in the east through the first week of March, however like last time in January the trough is too far East. Hopefully things look different tomorrow.

I do think the deep South or the southeast are going to cash in on another snow storm. Epic year for the Delmarva and the south.

Cold and dry.....

Yes it is. Don't know if you remember but a couple years ago and the New England forum I mentioned that my measurement in my yard is always low compared to my surroundings. I take three measurements one in the woods, and two in the cleared area of my yard and take the average. I do not clear snow I just take snow depth. What is odd is when I lived in Norwalk Connecticut pre-2015 I seem to almost always have the highest snow total. Not sure why this happens. Last time I had the most in the area was an overrunning event in January 2015 with 7. To get to my house you do have to go up a long sloped Hill. Not steeped, just long and it's facing south so I don't know if that has anything to do with it. I guess if there was a northerly wind I would be down sloped but slightly. It's wooded so I don't know why my measurements are usually low.

Hello. STD? For YTD I have 12.75 (4 for the last storm)

If I'm not mistaken I think the rule was that a negative AO benefits the Middle Atlantic in the Southeast while the nao benefits us. This would make sense as the nao never really went negative but the AO is going greatly negative hence why the Mid-Atlantic is benefiting. Kind of cut and dry.

Lol would be fitting for Ocean City Maryland to get hit again. Like a magnet.

Not 100% but think so.

Best clippers of all time are 1978 and I believe it was 2005. Both clippers ended up as blizzards.