EastonSN+

What I find ironic is the sustained negative NAO is hurting us here. The negative PNA works great if we were to get a storm to eject while the NAO trends positive. It would get warm after the storm but we would get a heavy snow event nonetheless. I guess what would be called a pattern changing storm. I guess this is why our best winter's are when the NAO is volatile rather than sustained.

Usually this would lead to a good time but......

My fault. We stay on the cold side of the boundary straight through February!

Learning. So for the above the jet is keeping the northern and southern stream lows from merging, correct? The Jet is pushing the northern stream faster and from dipping, leaving the southern stream low behind and intimately south of us. I would think this would be a good setup for the south to score more snow.

According to the weeklies we are on the cold side of the boundary through at least mid February thanks to the negative AO and NAO. However if this dry weather continues I would rather lose the block and get the SE Ridge to pop. Warm up. Nothing worse than cold and dry IMO.

Upper 30s every day is not my idea of warmth. I want a SER to get me to 50.

Shaking up the pattern will be welcome. If we lose the NAO then at least it will mild up!

SW CT where I currently reside. Mitigated crappy spring onshore weather. Closer drive to NYC, OCMD and warmer locations to the south. Close to 4 airports. Nice beaches.

Not trying to correlate. Wanted to know. Do u have the answer?

It will be ok. All we need to do is have a pattern change away from this crappy -NAO, -AO, +PNA pattern to a classic la NINA pattern. Patience patterns do change.

I wonder when the last time NYC received 10 inches of snow by end of December and ended up with less than 50% of average snowfall for the year? Thinking 89/90?

At this point I welcome any pattern change. We probably will fair better snowfall wise with the la Nina pattern than this pattern, which produced absolutely nothing.

Correct

EPS improved FWIW

Thanks Don. What I have re-learned this year is the day 10 plus ensembles and of course the weeklies are boarderline useless. They all agreed on a favorable pattern that now either a. Looks to be VERY transient or b. May not occur at all. IMO a terrible performance by LR guidance.

I guess our only hope in that pattern is for the NAO to be negative enough to suppress the SE Ridge.

Unreal. I am still 0.5 inches less snow than last year. Can't believe I can still end up with a worse winter that last year.

Don/Walt/Allsnow/Bluewave Wouldn't the look below be a gradient look with the SE Ridge and Negative NAO? If so, with the cold leaking into the SW US, couldn't that be an VERY snowy and icy look for us? I know 2014 is an analog year which we were in the colder side of the gradient. I feel that the look below is far better than what we have now. Please correct me if I am wrong I do not want to mislead the board and give false optimism. Thanks

The 17 18 winter was an all time favorite for me. Record snows in March. Cold and snowy Dec and Jan. Nice and warm Feb for a break.

EPS 240 (do not have past 240 so not sure where it goes from here). Negative NAO still strong. Pac looks better but not as good as it looked yesterday. Hadley Cell to occur following frames?

Watch us get shut out during the projected good period, everyone will be in agony seeing the NINA Feb in the models, then the SSW gives us blocking with the negative PNA and we overrun ourselves to a decent winter.

EPS weeklies or just GEFS?

I mean in a sense of expectations. Last year we once we hit the end of December the guidance showed garbage. This year guidance had blocking SSW bug early season snowstorm etc

I think we have a great shot at an average snowfall year. We scored big in December, and if this 3 week period produces a few hits (say 1 6 to 12, 1 3 to 6 and 1 1 to 3) we should be good. March is ALWAYS a wildcard no matter the enso. So many great years like 13/14 with a March shutout or bad years like 18/19 or 91/92 with great Marches. I will say this - if we do not reach average snowfall this year with the December we had as well as the blocking, it would be the most disappointing year I can remember.

In another thread they mentioned another SSWE is likely to occur. Probably would put us in where we are now with blocking and Pacific air.