EastonSN+

I am guessing EPS is showing same pattern as first half of Jan

Yeah they deserve so win one

So close

Canadian furthest NE with accums.

Yeah. I think I am out of the game here in SW CT. What a monster for the following storm for the SE and MA. Wow.

Weeklies keep the negative NAO through Feb 22. The week of the 15th through 22 looks nice with no SE ridge and -NAO placed further north. Also a small rise in PNA. Perhaps this would be the pattern break down week with a great chance of a pattern break down storm? Also per Twitter rumblings of another PV split. So maybe a negative NAO through Feb.

Middle Atlantic s turn to get crushed. Good for them it's been years.

I know Twitter bad etc... However would an east based NAO in FEB be better for us? 2nd tweet. https://mobile.twitter.com/simonleewx?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fsimonleewx%2fstatus%2f1352241685514883073

Same here.

To anger everyone with Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1351531259206447105?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fjudah47%2fstatus%2f1351531259206447105

I did not personally like the look of the weeklies below. Did have the negative NAO but south based past week 2 and looks like linked to the SE Ridge. Of course they are the weeklies so take with a grain of salt. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101180000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202103010000

Thanks Don. Given that Boston was the only City to realize accumulating snow in those cases, do you give much weight to the models showing the middle Atlantic getting snow, or do you believe once we get closer in time the south based NAO will "shred" the systems.

I know that there is no basis to "we are due for a fluke", however if we can score in 2011/2012 and last January, then we can score SOMETHING in this pattern. However, looking at the modeling sans EURO, suppression looks to be the issue (south based NAO). Middle Atlantic may get rocked.

That Bridgeport yearly average to day is false as Bridgeport is notorious for under reporting through history.

Perhaps this winter is an anomaly. I do think someone said this winter was close to 1922 1923?

Yeah but we have had plenty of +epo winter's with blocking and we scored decently. I firmly believe if we had more storm chances we would have had some snow this winter. Our temps were fine with the right track.

Curious did any MET predicted a poor snowfall season with great blocking? If so kudos.

What drives me crazy is a lot of Mets predicted a bad year for snowfall due to no blocking and poor Pacific. We had great blocking and it still didn't matter. I can't remember ever having great blocking in a Nina and not getting a decent winter. I have only seen super Nino's with blocking fail like late 90s.

I will never learn. Weeklies and ensembles past day 10 are useless. GEPS now looks terrible at day 15. Not sure what EPS looks like.

Didn't a great philosopher say regression is a b*tch?

CMC shows same thing but a little colder. I agree with the block probably looking at a quicker transfer. Even with the CMC look it's 2 to 3 before changover.

I feel like the winter is failing for the incorrectly predicted reasons. I do not think anyone predicted "too much blocking" as the reason for lack of snow (apologies if anyone actually did). Also, I do not personally believe daily 39 to 45 degree highs are a TORCH. 2011/2012 with daily highs 50 to 65 is a torch IMO. Above average yes torch no. If this year is a torch, would Feb 2018 be an inferno? I know someone is gonna reply with (is +3 not a TORCH!). No imo it's not. Believe me, if we had the right storm track we definitely would not have been shut out for the month. Our main issue is lack of precip/chances. Not saying would have been an epic month, rather anywhere from 1 to 10 inches could have fallen across the region so far. Hell, we had a TRUE torch in FEB 2018 and still managed a snowstorm. Same with Jan 2012. Those torches put is month to shame and it still snowed. We had enough precip chances and good timing. This year it's dry. Now, the weeklies, if to be believed, keeps blocking straight through February. This is believable since the pv is taking another hit and blocking can sustain for up to 5 weeks following. However, this renewed blocking may just keep us cold and dry. I welcome the negative PNA. Positive PNA did nothing for us so let's see if the negative PNA helps.

What I find ironic is the sustained negative NAO is hurting us here. The negative PNA works great if we were to get a storm to eject while the NAO trends positive. It would get warm after the storm but we would get a heavy snow event nonetheless. I guess what would be called a pattern changing storm. I guess this is why our best winter's are when the NAO is volatile rather than sustained.

Usually this would lead to a good time but......

My fault. We stay on the cold side of the boundary straight through February!